Bitcoin faces one of its largest options expiries with $15 billion in contracts set to expire Friday as volatility hits multi-year lows.Read more: https://t.co/89pM91oU54 ...

Hello everybody. Welcome to the Thursday live stream. So, just like the title and thumbnail suggests, we're going to take a look at just some of the the billionaires and millionaires that just haven't gotten into Bitcoin and what that means for us.And like we've been talking about for quite some time, we've actually front ran a whole host of people. But you're probably thinking yourself, but Rob, as we take a look at what's going to be talked about today, what about Bitcoin and the altcoins and everything e ...

Core Viewpoint - Flow Traders is preparing for its 2Q 2025 results, highlighting increased market trading volumes and volatility across various asset classes, which positively impacted its business performance [2][10]. Market Environment - Market trading volumes and volatility increased in the second quarter across most asset classes and regions, with significant increases in early April, followed by a return to normal levels in May and June [3]. - In Equity, trading volumes and volatility increased across all regions compared to the same period a year ago and the first quarter [3]. - Fixed Income market trading volumes also saw an increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while volatility remained relatively flat [3]. - Digital Assets experienced a slight year-on-year increase in trading volumes but a significant decrease compared to the first quarter, with volatility declining meaningfully [3]. Equity Market Insights - European exchanges such as Euronext, Deutsche Börse, and the London Stock Exchange reported double-digit increases in trading volumes year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, particularly in April [4]. - In the Americas, both Nasdaq and NYSE also saw double-digit increases in trading volumes [4]. - APAC exchanges, including Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Shanghai, experienced double-digit volume increases compared to the same period last year, though less pronounced than in the first quarter [4]. Volatility Trends - Volatility indicators such as VSTOXX in Europe, VIX in the Americas, and JNIV in Japan showed double-digit increases compared to the same period last year and the first quarter [5]. - The VHSI in Hong Kong increased year-on-year but remained flat quarter-on-quarter [5]. Fixed Income Insights - Fixed Income trading volumes increased by double digits across most products on Tradeweb and MarketAxess compared to the same period last year and the first quarter, although the magnitude was smaller than in Equity [6]. - Fixed income volatility, as indicated by the MOVE index, saw slight increases both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [6]. Digital Assets Performance - Bitcoin trading volumes increased slightly year-on-year but decreased by double digits quarter-on-quarter, with volatility also declining significantly [7]. ETP Market Volumes - Flow Traders reported a 53% year-on-year increase in On and Off Exchange Value Traded in EMEA, 43% in the Americas, 78% in APAC, and 48% globally [8]. - Average volatility, as indicated by the VIX, was up 77% quarter-to-date compared to the same period last year [8]. Impact on Flow Traders - The increase in trading volumes and volatility positively contributed to Flow Traders' Net Trading Income (NTI) compared to the same period last year [10]. - NTI performance was comparable to the first quarter, as volumes and volatility returned to normal levels in May and June after a surge in early April [10]. - All regions showed improvement compared to the same period last year, with the Americas also improving compared to the first quarter [10].

Market Impact of Geopolitical Events - Crypto markets experienced a liquidation of $2 billion (1.02%) in 24 hours following US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] - Bitcoin's streak of 44 days above $100,000 was broken, dipping to $99,000 [1] - Markets are reacting to the potential for a new war, causing volatility [2] - De-escalation of tensions is seen as the most likely scenario, which could lead to a market surge [5] Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis - The report suggests a buying opportunity, as the fundamentals of Bitcoin and crypto assets remain unchanged [2] - Bitcoin could potentially dip to the low $90,000s or even high $80,000s this month without breaking market structure, with a potential recovery rally expected [6][7] - Bitcoin and crypto are considered to be here to stay, with increasing acceptance and adoption [9] - Middle Eastern countries are increasingly involved in buying Bitcoin and building blockchain infrastructure [10] - Russia reportedly holds about $25 billion in Bitcoin and crypto, potentially building a strategic reserve [14] - Bitcoin may be taking on safe haven characteristics, showing a decoupling from tech equities and correlating with gold [15] Investment Strategy - The report suggests caution regarding the stock market due to current valuations, favoring Bitcoin and gold [18] - Governments printing money is expected to drive asset prices for quality assets like Bitcoin higher [19] - The US is expected to announce further Bitcoin acquisitions, with states like Texas implementing strategic Bitcoin reserves [20][21]

The S&P 500 has averaged:• One 10%+ correction per year• One 20%+ bear market every 6 years• Yet still delivered positive returns 74% of yearsVolatility is the norm. Long-term gains are the reward. ...

Crypto Leverage Overview - 加密货币市场中的杠杆使用会放大价格波动，对市场产生重大影响 [1] - 投资者主要通过两种方式获得杠杆：抵押贷款和通过期货或永续合约进行杠杆交易 [1] - 强制平仓会加剧市场崩盘，而杠杆空头挤压会导致价格意外上涨 [1] Collateralized Lending - 2021 年第四季度，加密货币抵押贷款市场达到近 650 亿美元的峰值 [1] - 截至 2025 年第一季度，中心化金融 (CFI) 平台的未偿借款约为 135 亿美元，环比增长约 9% [1] - Tether 在 CFI 借贷市场中占据主导地位，持有 65% 的份额，透明度不足是 CFI 借贷的一个主要问题 [1] - 截至 2025 年第一季度末，去中心化金融 (DeFi) 借贷的未偿借款约为 177 亿美元，环比下降超过 21% [1] - Pendle 代币被引入到 Aave 中，由于其高贷款价值比率，显著提升了 DeFi 借贷活动 [1] Borrowing Trends - 稳定币借款利率大幅下降，从 1 月份的约 12% 降至 5 月下旬的约 5%，降幅达 57% [2] - 链上比特币借款保持相对较低和稳定，而链下比特币借款利率仍然较高 [2] - 以太坊借款利率始终高于质押以太坊 (ST ETH) 的利率，机构投资者通常在链下借入 ETH 以做空以太坊或将其用作现金贷款的抵押品 [2] Debt Issuance by Crypto Treasury Companies - 截至 2025 年 5 月下旬，比特币国库公司总共持有高达 1227 亿美元的未偿债务，其中 MicroStrategy 占近 65% [2] - 这些公司面临着双重风险：如果比特币价格在债务到期时显著降低，可能会被迫出售大量 BTC；如果股票价格上涨，投资者可以将债务转换为公司股份，这可能会稀释现有股东的权益 [2] Crypto Futures Market - 2025 年初，加密货币期货市场交易活动和投资者参与度显著下降，但 4 月初市场信心开始恢复，5 月下旬未平仓合约大幅反弹，从约 680 亿美元增至 1160 亿美元 [3] - 机构投资者越来越倾向于在芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 等受监管的交易所进行交易，截至 5 月，CME 约占加密货币期货市场总额的 25% [3] - 永续期货 (Perp) 在零售交易者中越来越受欢迎，截至 5 月下旬，Perp 约占期货未平仓合约总额的 72%，达到约 840 亿美元 [3] - Hyperliquid 作为一个去中心化交易所，由于其无需 KYC 的特点，正在蚕食币安等传统中心化交易所的市场份额 [3] Market Implications and Risks - 随着牛市的进行，加密货币借贷市场正在强劲复苏，并可能显著增长 [3] - 随着越来越多的个人交易者和杠杆公司实体进行杠杆交易和借贷，下一次熊市可能会特别残酷 [3] - 如果加密货币国库公司没有足够的现金流或股价下跌，可能会被迫在最糟糕的时刻清算其加密货币持有量，从而引发广泛的强制抛售 [3]

The Art of Sitting Out: When the Market Lacks Direction, Not Trading Is a StrategyLately, headlines about war and economic uncertainty — especially around Trump’s policies — have made it tough to read the market’s direction. In times like these, staying on the sidelines can be one of the smartest moves a trader can make.For many, the urge to take action during heavy volatility is strong. But sometimes, wisdom lies in knowing when not to act.1️. Capital Preservation Comes FirstIn crypto, protecting your capi ...

I'm going to address the both of you guys again. Let's back up and talk about tech investing more broadly in the context of what else has been dominating the markets, which is this rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Todd, I'll go to you for this one.We've seen a good amount of volatility around some of the recent developments on the geopolitical front, specifically when it comes to conflict in the Middle East. It has been jarring for sure, but interestingly enough uh not as jarring from a straight qua ...

Market Overview - The VIX index spiked 12% due to a better-than-expected auction for 10-year notes, raising fears of a stock market selloff [2] - Following geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, the VIX surged another 14% [2] - The S&P 500 has been relatively flat, while one of the highlighted swing trades rose 4% [2] Company Analysis: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) - Lululemon has faced significant challenges due to "Liberation Day" tariffs, leading to a 35% decline in stock price this year [5][6] - The company trimmed its full-year earnings guidance by 2%, which contributed to a 22% drop in shares after the first-quarter earnings call [6] - Currently, Lululemon trades at 17 times forward earnings, which is 40% below its historical averages [7] - Recent tariff rollbacks between the U.S. and China may positively impact Lululemon's supply chain [8] - The U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 60.5, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending, which is crucial for Lululemon [9] - TradeSmith's quantitative system forecasts an 11% upside for Lululemon over the next 30 days [10] Company Analysis: The Toro Co. (TTC) - Toro's shares have dropped 30% over the past year due to slowing revenue growth and shrinking margins [13] - The company now trades at 16.5 times forward earnings, the lowest since 2012, indicating a potential buying opportunity [14] - TradeSmith's system predicts a 10% increase in share prices over the next 30 days, supported by positive signals from home improvement retailers [15] Company Analysis: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) - Alphabet is projected to have a 17.5% upside over the next 30 days, despite a recent downgrade [18] - The company dominates the search engine market with a 90% market share and has strong operations in cloud computing and streaming services [20] - Alphabet's valuation is currently subdued due to a conglomerate discount and ongoing antitrust lawsuits [21][24] - The company's AI-focused cloud business is expected to enhance its valuation by aligning its diversified businesses [21] - Alphabet trades at 18.5 times forward earnings, below the median of other major tech firms [25]

Bring in Schwab's Lisanne Saunders now. She joins us on the CNBC news. Good to have you on as well, Lisanne.Welcome back. Your thoughts on these markets. Yeah, I mean it's it's not a it's not a huge huge reaction down.We've had obviously worst days just tied to trade news, but um you know if you if you look historically at other surprise um military attacks, you do tend to see a big downward move on the day the two biggest ever were most recently September 11th, maybe no surprise there, and then when North ...