Market Concerns - Highlights inflation, breaches, and censorship as critical issues [1] - Suggests the current financial system is broken and outdated [1] OKX Solution - Positions OKX as a solution for a trustless, transparent, and permissionless financial future [1] - Announces OKX is now available in the US [1]

The White House also under pressure on the economy and the issue of affordability as costs remain high, especially on grocery items despite President Trump's insistence that prices are coming down. According to NBC News's latest grocery price tracker, the price of orange juice as well as beef, bacon, and chicken are all up at least 5% compared to last year. On Friday, the Trump administration announced it was rolling back tariffs on some food products, including coffee, bananas, and beef.One of the administ ...

Market Overview - Wall Street indices experienced declines between 0.9% and 2%, with small caps underperforming, while European markets also fell across the board [3] - The VIX "fear index" for the S&P 500 reached its highest close in a month, indicating increased market volatility [2] - U.S. energy and financial sectors saw a drop of 2%, while technology and materials sectors fell by 1.5% [3] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline of nearly 30% over six weeks, reflecting the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies [1][6] - Bitcoin's price hit a seven-month low below $92,000, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [3] Economic Indicators - Japan's economy contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.8% decline, which was less severe than the anticipated 2.5% drop [6][7] - China's annual consumer inflation was marginally positive in October, but producer prices fell for the 37th consecutive month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [9][10] Trade and Export Dynamics - China is experiencing a surge in exports, particularly to Asian markets, with exports to Asia increasing by $150 billion this year [13] - The current export boom differs from previous trends, as China now exports higher-value goods such as autos and electric vehicles, impacting global competition [15][16] Inflation and Price Impact - A potential 10% fall in Chinese export prices could lead to a decrease in U.S. producer prices by 0.1-0.2% and by around 0.6% in Southeast Asia [18] - The ongoing disinflation in China may provide some relief to U.S. policymakers concerned about inflation [19]

Joining us now, head of King's College, Cambridge, and columnist for the Financial Times, Jillian Tet, and New York Times White House correspondent Tyler Pager. Jillian, I when I talk about a K-shaped economy, I I never imagined that McDonald's would be on the top of the K. Well, absolutely, and there's two important things going on here.Firstly, the top 10% of Americans used to account for only about a third of all consumer spending. Today, they're accounting for about half. And that's because so much of c ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the retail sector heading into the holiday season is bleak, primarily due to rising inflation impacting consumer health, especially among low-income consumers [1][3]. Retail Earnings Outlook - Major retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are set to report earnings, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [1][4]. - Five Below is identified as the most likely retailer to exceed consensus expectations in its upcoming earnings report, benefiting from macro tailwinds and company-specific improvements [5]. - Target is expected to miss expectations due to ongoing struggles with consumer perception, being viewed as a "nice to have" rather than a necessity [6]. - Walmart is anticipated to report inline results, but the current stock valuation suggests limited upside potential [6][7]. Home Improvement Sector - Home Depot and Lowe's are experiencing muted performance, with expectations for uninspiring results in their upcoming reports [9]. - The performance of these companies is largely driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates and housing turnover, which will influence home improvement demand [9]. Costco's Position - Costco's earnings report is scheduled for the second week of December, with expectations for better performance due to its focus on middle to high-income consumers, who are faring better than low-income consumers [10].

Retail giants like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, as you can see there, are scheduled to report their earnings throughout the course of the week as investors continue to gauge the state of the consumer. Our next guest says the outlook is bleak going into the holiday season as rising inflation weighs on the consumer health with lowincome consumers getting squeezed the absolute most. For more, let's bring in Jihan Ma, the senior analyst over at Bernstein, who covers many of these uh retailers.Jihan, thank y ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - Bitcoin experienced volatility, falling approximately 8% between the previous Monday and Friday, dipping under $95,000 over the weekend, and sitting at about $95,570 on Monday morning [1] - Berkshire Hathaway took a nearly 18 million share position in Google parent Alphabet, worth roughly $5 billion [1] - The market is closely watching Nvidia's third-quarter results, which are due after the bell on Wednesday [1] - Key retail results are expected from Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, and Walmart [1] - Saudi Arabia has pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in US investments [1] Economic Policy & Impact - President Trump is cutting tariffs on over 200 food products, including coffee, beef, bananas, and tomatoes, as certain foods could be exempt from tariffs since they're not grown or processed in the US [1][2] - The administration is working on plans to address voter frustrations over the cost of living, potentially including striking more deals with pharmaceutical companies and greenlighting more offshore drilling [3] Financial Analysis & Risk Assessment - A bond investor is recommending a 20% cash position to hedge against a severe market downturn, citing concerns in the private credit market, which is close to $2 trillion [3] - RBC Capital indicates a plain old-fashioned valuation problem, with AI stocks carrying the weight of the market, but there is still a tremendous amount of jitters around those AI stocks [1][3] - Margin debt is hitting a record high, which in the past has correlated with S&P consolidations [5] Economic Outlook & Labor Market - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the shutdown-delayed September jobs report on Thursday [1] - There could be a quiet time in the labor market because firms are finding that AI is making their workers so productive that they don't necessarily have to hire the new kids out of college [4]

Economic Outlook - Concerns are rising regarding potential pressures on upper-income consumers, which could lead to risks for the Federal Reserve if they do not cut rates in December [1][18] - The labor market data indicates that upper-income parents are increasingly worried about their children's job prospects, negatively impacting consumer spending as the year ends [3][18] Youth Unemployment - Youth unemployment is currently at approximately 180% of normal levels for the average worker, a significant increase from the historical rate of 150% [6][18] - The rise in youth unemployment is attributed to job displacement caused by advancements in AI, similar to the impact of computers in the past [4][5] AI and Productivity - There is skepticism about the short-term returns on AI investments, with concerns that companies may not hire enough if they do not see the expected benefits [7][9] - Long-term productivity improvements are anticipated, but the transition period may be challenging as organizations adapt to new technologies and cultural changes [8][10][11] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is advised to focus on short-term growth rather than solely on inflation, suggesting that a rate cut could stimulate economic activity [13][17] - A failure to cut rates in December could negatively impact holiday spending, as market reactions to the Fed's decisions could influence consumer behavior [15][16][18]

Labor Market & AI Impact - Youth unemployment is approximately 180% of the average worker's unemployment rate, raising concerns about its potential impact [5] - The advent of AI is causing job displacement, similar to the introduction of computers, leading to higher youth unemployment [4] - Companies may not achieve the expected returns on AI investments in the short term, impacting hiring decisions [6] - The integration of AI requires not only technology but also process and cultural changes within organizations, which takes time [8][9] Consumer Sentiment & Spending - Upper-income individuals are beginning to worry about their children's job prospects, negatively affecting consumer sentiment and spending [2] - The Fed should avoid actions that could negatively impact the US consumer, especially during the holiday shopping season [13] - If the market anticipates a rate cut and it doesn't happen, consumer spending could be negatively affected [14] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed should prioritize high growth over strictly adhering to a 2% inflation target, given stable inflation expectations [12][15] - Even with the Fed's actions, inflation is likely to remain around 3%, suggesting limited control over this factor [14]

Core Insights - Financial conditions are expected to remain tight through 2026 due to persistent inflation and potential new tariffs that could further increase costs [1] Group 1: Budget Adjustments - Rising costs of essentials like groceries, utilities, and child care may indicate that budgets are outdated, necessitating regular reviews to align with new price realities in 2026 [3] - Inflation and new tariffs can diminish real purchasing power, prompting the need to track monthly leftover cash to ensure income keeps pace with rising costs [4] - Fixed expenses consuming more than 50% of take-home pay signal a need for reassessment, as high fixed costs limit savings and investment opportunities [5] Group 2: Lifestyle and Spending Habits - Lifestyle creep, characterized by increased discretionary spending that outpaces income growth, requires a comparison of current expenditures to previous years to identify necessary budget adjustments [6] - Over-reliance on credit or savings indicates a misalignment between budget and reality, necessitating a recalibration to avoid using debt for basic needs [7] Group 3: Tax Considerations - Changes in tax rules under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act for 2026 could impact net income, particularly for high earners and entrepreneurs, highlighting the importance of staying informed about new deductions and thresholds [8]