丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 新增专项债发行进度 30.40% ——政府债周报（5/18） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 19 日-5 月 25 日地方债披露发行 2485.22 亿元。其中新增债 1130.83 亿元（新增一般债 55.19 亿元，新增专项债 1075.64 亿元），再融资债 1354.39 亿元（再融资一般债 864.76 亿元， 再融资专项债 489.63 亿元）。 5 月 12 日-5 月 18 日地方债共发行 1972.50 亿元。其中新增债 970.21 亿元（新增一般债 195.66 亿元，新增专项债 774.55 亿元），再融资债 1002.29 亿元（再融资一般债 782.90 亿元，再融 资专项债 219.39 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title 新 ...

国外 1. 花旗：下调短期金价目标至每盎司3150美元 花旗：预计未来几个月黄金将在每盎司3000-3300美元区间盘整，将0-3个月目标价格下调至每盎司3150 美元。 2. 野村：中美达成关税协议超预期将中国股票升至"战术性增持" 野村发表研究报告指，中美宣布达成关税协议，令市场大感意外，虽然近日投资者都纷纷预期关税会有 所削减，但野村认为今次减幅远超预期，全球股市亦"松一口气"，预料可会成为近期正面风险偏好的支 持因素，将中国股票评级上调至"战术性增持"。 3. 高盛：油价的中期风险偏向下行 受中美贸易会谈影响，油价上涨。高盛分析师在一份报告中表示，尽管受贸易政策乐观情绪的影响，油 价已从近期低点部分回升，但布伦特和WTI原油的价格可能会进一步小幅下跌，在2025年剩余时间里， 均价分别为每桶60美元和56美元，该预测基于以下假设：欧佩克在7月最后一次增加供应，不包括欧佩 克、俄罗斯和美国页岩油在内的全球供应增长强劲，需求放缓，但美国避免了经济衰退。高盛表示，大 量闲置产能和对经济衰退的担忧加剧，使油价的中期风险偏向下行。 4. 高盛：预计欧佩克+将在8月份停止增产 高盛表示，随着经济活动放缓和石油需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the issuance scale of new special bonds in the second and third quarters is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan each [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The recent "double reduction" policy reflects a moderately loose monetary policy that supports the market [1] - Historical data shows that after previous "double reductions," local government bond issuance significantly increased [1] Group 2: Bond Issuance Forecast - The current pace of new local bond issuance is relatively slow, indicating a large amount still to be released [1] - Based on past experiences following "double reductions," it is anticipated that the new special bond issuance in the second and third quarters will likely surpass 1 trillion yuan, with the total issuance for the year expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 新增专项债发行进度 26.45% ——政府债周报（5/4） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日地方债披露发行 740.53 亿元。其中新增债 687.83 亿元（新增一般债 0.00 亿元，新增专项债 687.83 亿元），再融资债 52.70 亿元（再融资一般债 49.03 亿元，再融资专 项债 3.67 亿元）。 4 月 28 日-5 月 4 日地方债共发行 930.92 亿元。其中新增债 599.51 亿元（新增一般债 67.46 亿元，新增专项债 532.05 亿元），再融资债 331.41 亿元（再融资一般债 176.76 亿元，再融资 专项债 154.65 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 新增专项债发行进度 2] 26 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report mainly focuses on the issuance progress and details of local government bonds, including new - issued bonds, refinancing bonds, and special bonds. It provides data on actual and forecasted bond issuances, net supply, and investment - related spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - 4/21 - 4/27 local bond net supply was 1625 billion yuan; 4/28 - 5/4 local bond forecasted net supply is 927 billion yuan [13][17] - In March, there were differences between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds; in April, there were also differences between the disclosed plan and actual issuance [15][21] 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - As of April 25, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 36.95%, and that of new special bonds was 25.27% [27] - As of April 25, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in the report [27] 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - As of April 25, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 39874.69 billion yuan, with 15989.44 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and 56.30 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hunan [7] - As of April 25, the special new special bonds in 2025 totaled 1432.58 billion yuan, and 13337.71 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [7] 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - The report shows the first - and second - level spreads of local bonds and the second - level spreads by region [37][40] 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions The report provides a monthly statistics of project investment directions for new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [42]