Consumption - The consumption market shows a divergence between goods and services, with service consumption, particularly travel, experiencing a surge during the summer[2] - In the automotive sector, wholesale and retail sales increased compared to the previous week, with year-on-year growth rates also improving[4] - Food prices have seen a decline, with agricultural product prices dropping, while the price of Moutai liquor fell by 1.1% week-on-week[4] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative issuance of CNY 2.6 trillion by July 19, 2025, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[18] - New home sales in 30 cities continued to decline seasonally, with a year-on-year drop of 25.7%, while the proportion of second-hand homes rose to a historical high of 72%[18] Trade - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) surged by 29.9% week-on-week, driven by increased shipments of Brazilian iron ore and tight shipping capacity[21] - Port operations have become more frequent, with the number of ships docking for imports and exports increasing compared to the previous week[21] Production - Overall production is improving, with electricity demand rising due to high temperatures, and industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and automobiles showing increased operating rates[23] - The operating rate for PTA and polyester has also risen, indicating a recovery in the petrochemical sector[26] Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are both showing marginal increases, with industrial prices rising by 1.2% week-on-week[37] - The price of carbon lithium has increased by 4.5% week-on-week, while prices for PTA and polyester continue to decline[37] Liquidity - The US dollar index rose by 59 basis points, surpassing 98 points, reflecting the resilience of the US economy[40] - The central bank's net liquidity injection was CNY 13.011 trillion, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity in the market[39]

Group 1 - Local government bond issuance has significantly increased in the first half of this year, with a total issuance of approximately 54,902 billion yuan, representing a growth of about 57.2% compared to 34,928 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The issuance of new special bonds has also accelerated, with a total of approximately 21,607 billion yuan issued in the first half, a 44.7% increase from 14,935 billion yuan in the previous year [1][3] - The overall scale of local bond issuance in the first half has reached a historical high, providing strong financial support for economic development [1] Group 2 - The government work report for this year has set a target for local government special bonds at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [3] - The expansion of special bond issuance is aimed at bolstering infrastructure investment, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth, with significant implications for stabilizing growth, promoting investment, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The issuance pace of local bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, with an anticipated issuance of nearly 20,000 billion yuan in a single quarter, reflecting a trend of front-loading special bond issuance [4]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, local government bond issuance reached approximately 54,902 billion yuan, a 57.2% increase compared to 34,928 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy [1] - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated, with a total of about 21,607 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, up 44.7% from 14,935 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [1] - The increase in special bond issuance is seen as a significant policy support measure, aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting investment, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 2 - The overall issuance of local bonds in the first half of the year reached a historical high, with expectations for a noticeable acceleration in the issuance of new local bonds in the second half [2] - It is anticipated that the issuance of new special bonds will further accelerate in the third quarter, with the scale expected to expand and the pace of issuance to quicken [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, thereby consolidating the fundamentals of economic development and social stability [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 24, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,556 yuan/ton, down 1.10%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,500 yuan/ton. The SF2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,240 yuan/ton. [2] - The Fed's Waller said that considering the recent mild inflation data, a rate cut in July should be considered. [2] - Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The import manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end decreased by 186,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and stabilized, and the pessimistic sentiment has improved. [2] - In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 120 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 350 yuan/ton for silicon - iron; the Ningxia spot profit is - 300 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 310 yuan/ton for silicon - iron. [2] - In the market, steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender prices continue to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,556 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,288 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量 was 597,205 hands, up 9,808 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 425,758 hands, down 6,891 hands. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 25,899 hands, up 7,983 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 44,943 hands, up 4,411 hands. [2] - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 36 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. [2] - The SM warehouse receipts were 93,769, down 1,231; the SF warehouse receipts were 0. [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The SM index average was 5,465 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 48 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The SM主力合约基差 was - 56 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 31 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.215 million tons, down 186,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 36.39%, up 1.09%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate was 32.69%, up 1.34%. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 176,610 tons, up 3,220 tons; the silicon - iron supply was 97,900 tons, up 2,800 tons. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; the silicon - iron manufacturer inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. [2] - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the national steel mill inventory days of silicon - iron was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. [2] Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 123,717 tons, up 1,564 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 19,964.4 tons, up 356.6 tons. [2] - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, up 0.45%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81%, up 0.25%. [2] - The crude - steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons. [2] Other Market News - Another Fed governor after Waller last Friday signaled a dovish stance. Bowman supported an interest - rate cut as early as July due to potential rising risks in the labor market. [2] - Recently, special bonds are being used for government investment funds for the first time, and the arrangement of using the new special debt quota for land acquisition, purchasing existing commercial housing, and paying off local government arrears to enterprises is gradually being implemented. It is expected that the issuance of new local government special bonds will still accelerate in the second half of the year. [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than the expected 50.5. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is capable of dealing with "exceptionally severe" economic and political uncertainties. [2] - On June 23, the coke market price was weak, and the fourth - round price cut was implemented. The mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the coke purchase price by 50 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 55 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke. [2] - On June 24, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia is lowered, the cost support is weakened, and the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in June has exceeded 860 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for over 50% of the total, indicating a significant acceleration in the issuance speed of local bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Local Bond Issuance Overview - The total planned issuance of local bonds in June has reached 861.2 billion yuan, with the proportions of new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing special bonds being 8.62% (74.2 billion yuan), 13.51% (116.4 billion yuan), 50.39% (434 billion yuan), and 21.35% (183.9 billion yuan) respectively [1]. - Six provinces (municipalities) have planned to issue over 50 billion yuan in bonds this month, with Beijing leading at 123.2 billion yuan, followed by Zhejiang (95.8 billion yuan) and Yunnan (68.8 billion yuan) [1]. Group 2: Special Bond Issuance Details - In June, 12 provinces have new special bonds accounting for over half of their local bond issuance, with Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong having over 85% of their new special bonds [2]. - The top ten provinces for new special bond issuance are: Zhejiang (86.6 billion yuan), Beijing (66.1 billion yuan), Fujian (45.7 billion yuan), Shandong (31.8 billion yuan), Hubei (30 billion yuan), Guangdong (30 billion yuan), Anhui (24.8 billion yuan), Chongqing (20 billion yuan), Sichuan (17.1 billion yuan), and Gansu (14.8 billion yuan) [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Trends - The acceleration in special bond issuance aligns with market expectations, as the issuance speed has been generally slow compared to previous years [2]. - The issuance pace of new special bonds is expected to increase in the second and third quarters of 2025, as local governments finalize their project lists and implement self-review guidelines [2].