中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第39周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期: 2025年9月29日 截至9/28, 新增专项债发行进度为83.2% 本周新增专项债发行1496亿，环比增加518亿 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 截至9/28, 9月新增专项债累计发行3971亿元 截至9/28, 9月新增一般债累计发行411亿元 2025 2024 -- 2023 - - 2022 - 2021 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 F ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of improvement in new orders, particularly in the second quarter, indicating potential recovery in performance in the latter half of the year [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 512.50 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.83 billion yuan, down 17.17% year-over-year [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 263.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.61% year-over-year but an increase of 5.59% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit for Q2 was 5.80 billion yuan, down 14.65% year-over-year and 3.71% quarter-over-quarter, falling short of expectations [1]. - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 8.53%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, infrastructure revenue was 436.25 billion yuan, down 7.78% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 7.37%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - The company reported varied performance across sectors, with real estate and equipment manufacturing revenues increasing by 7.78% and 14.39% respectively, while design consulting saw a slight decline [2]. Order Intake - The company secured new orders totaling 1.11 trillion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 2.8% year-over-year, with significant growth in overseas new orders, which rose by 78.6% in Q2 [4]. - Q2 2025 new orders improved significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 20%, indicating a recovery trend [4]. Cost and Expenses - Financial expenses increased significantly, primarily due to higher interest expenses and reduced investment income from infrastructure projects, leading to an overall increase in the expense ratio [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 2.31%, down 0.31 percentage points year-over-year, with a cash flow pressure reflected in a negative operating cash flow of 79.6 billion yuan [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards due to increased competition and pressure on profit margins, projecting net profits of 23.8 billion yuan, 22.9 billion yuan, and 22.6 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The target price for A/H shares has been adjusted to 7.71 yuan and 5.50 HKD, maintaining an "overweight" rating for both A and H shares [5].

本报记者 韩 昱 5月份以来，各地新增专项债发行明显提速。《证券日报》记者梳理Wind数据发现，截至5月28日，5月 份以来各地发行新增专项债100只，规模达到2990.6252亿元。而4月份整月，各地发行新增专项债31 只，规模为883.2398亿元。相较而言，5月份虽尚未结束，但新增专项债发行规模已相当于4月份3倍 多。 专项债作为带动有效投资的重要抓手之一，其发行和使用近期也备受关注。 4月23日，国家发展改革委官网显示，国家发展改革委联合财政部完成2024年地方政府专项债券项目的 筛选工作，共筛选通过专项债券项目约3.8万个、2024年专项债券需求5.9万亿元左右，为今年3.9万亿元 专项债券发行使用打下坚实基础。 4月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议指出，"要及早发行并用好超长期特别国债，加快专项债发行使用进 度，保持必要的财政支出强度，确保基层'三保'按时足额支出"。 5月21日，国家发展改革委召开5月份新闻发布会，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超 表示："在扩大有效投资方面，落实超长期特别国债支持国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设， 加快中央预算内投资下达和地方政府专项债券发行使 ...

Consumption - The consumption market shows a divergence between goods and services, with service consumption, particularly travel, experiencing a surge during the summer[2] - In the automotive sector, wholesale and retail sales increased compared to the previous week, with year-on-year growth rates also improving[4] - Food prices have seen a decline, with agricultural product prices dropping, while the price of Moutai liquor fell by 1.1% week-on-week[4] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative issuance of CNY 2.6 trillion by July 19, 2025, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[18] - New home sales in 30 cities continued to decline seasonally, with a year-on-year drop of 25.7%, while the proportion of second-hand homes rose to a historical high of 72%[18] Trade - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) surged by 29.9% week-on-week, driven by increased shipments of Brazilian iron ore and tight shipping capacity[21] - Port operations have become more frequent, with the number of ships docking for imports and exports increasing compared to the previous week[21] Production - Overall production is improving, with electricity demand rising due to high temperatures, and industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and automobiles showing increased operating rates[23] - The operating rate for PTA and polyester has also risen, indicating a recovery in the petrochemical sector[26] Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are both showing marginal increases, with industrial prices rising by 1.2% week-on-week[37] - The price of carbon lithium has increased by 4.5% week-on-week, while prices for PTA and polyester continue to decline[37] Liquidity - The US dollar index rose by 59 basis points, surpassing 98 points, reflecting the resilience of the US economy[40] - The central bank's net liquidity injection was CNY 13.011 trillion, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity in the market[39]

Group 1 - Local government bond issuance has significantly increased in the first half of this year, with a total issuance of approximately 54,902 billion yuan, representing a growth of about 57.2% compared to 34,928 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The issuance of new special bonds has also accelerated, with a total of approximately 21,607 billion yuan issued in the first half, a 44.7% increase from 14,935 billion yuan in the previous year [1][3] - The overall scale of local bond issuance in the first half has reached a historical high, providing strong financial support for economic development [1] Group 2 - The government work report for this year has set a target for local government special bonds at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [3] - The expansion of special bond issuance is aimed at bolstering infrastructure investment, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth, with significant implications for stabilizing growth, promoting investment, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The issuance pace of local bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, with an anticipated issuance of nearly 20,000 billion yuan in a single quarter, reflecting a trend of front-loading special bond issuance [4]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, local government bond issuance reached approximately 54,902 billion yuan, a 57.2% increase compared to 34,928 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy [1] - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated, with a total of about 21,607 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, up 44.7% from 14,935 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [1] - The increase in special bond issuance is seen as a significant policy support measure, aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting investment, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 2 - The overall issuance of local bonds in the first half of the year reached a historical high, with expectations for a noticeable acceleration in the issuance of new local bonds in the second half [2] - It is anticipated that the issuance of new special bonds will further accelerate in the third quarter, with the scale expected to expand and the pace of issuance to quicken [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, thereby consolidating the fundamentals of economic development and social stability [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 24, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,556 yuan/ton, down 1.10%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,500 yuan/ton. The SF2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,240 yuan/ton. [2] - The Fed's Waller said that considering the recent mild inflation data, a rate cut in July should be considered. [2] - Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The import manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end decreased by 186,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and stabilized, and the pessimistic sentiment has improved. [2] - In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 120 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 350 yuan/ton for silicon - iron; the Ningxia spot profit is - 300 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 310 yuan/ton for silicon - iron. [2] - In the market, steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender prices continue to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,556 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,288 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量 was 597,205 hands, up 9,808 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 425,758 hands, down 6,891 hands. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 25,899 hands, up 7,983 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 44,943 hands, up 4,411 hands. [2] - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 36 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. [2] - The SM warehouse receipts were 93,769, down 1,231; the SF warehouse receipts were 0. [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The SM index average was 5,465 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 48 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The SM主力合约基差 was - 56 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 31 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.215 million tons, down 186,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 36.39%, up 1.09%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate was 32.69%, up 1.34%. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 176,610 tons, up 3,220 tons; the silicon - iron supply was 97,900 tons, up 2,800 tons. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; the silicon - iron manufacturer inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. [2] - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the national steel mill inventory days of silicon - iron was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. [2] Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 123,717 tons, up 1,564 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 19,964.4 tons, up 356.6 tons. [2] - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, up 0.45%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81%, up 0.25%. [2] - The crude - steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons. [2] Other Market News - Another Fed governor after Waller last Friday signaled a dovish stance. Bowman supported an interest - rate cut as early as July due to potential rising risks in the labor market. [2] - Recently, special bonds are being used for government investment funds for the first time, and the arrangement of using the new special debt quota for land acquisition, purchasing existing commercial housing, and paying off local government arrears to enterprises is gradually being implemented. It is expected that the issuance of new local government special bonds will still accelerate in the second half of the year. [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than the expected 50.5. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is capable of dealing with "exceptionally severe" economic and political uncertainties. [2] - On June 23, the coke market price was weak, and the fourth - round price cut was implemented. The mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the coke purchase price by 50 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 55 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke. [2] - On June 24, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia is lowered, the cost support is weakened, and the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in June has exceeded 860 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for over 50% of the total, indicating a significant acceleration in the issuance speed of local bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Local Bond Issuance Overview - The total planned issuance of local bonds in June has reached 861.2 billion yuan, with the proportions of new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing special bonds being 8.62% (74.2 billion yuan), 13.51% (116.4 billion yuan), 50.39% (434 billion yuan), and 21.35% (183.9 billion yuan) respectively [1]. - Six provinces (municipalities) have planned to issue over 50 billion yuan in bonds this month, with Beijing leading at 123.2 billion yuan, followed by Zhejiang (95.8 billion yuan) and Yunnan (68.8 billion yuan) [1]. Group 2: Special Bond Issuance Details - In June, 12 provinces have new special bonds accounting for over half of their local bond issuance, with Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong having over 85% of their new special bonds [2]. - The top ten provinces for new special bond issuance are: Zhejiang (86.6 billion yuan), Beijing (66.1 billion yuan), Fujian (45.7 billion yuan), Shandong (31.8 billion yuan), Hubei (30 billion yuan), Guangdong (30 billion yuan), Anhui (24.8 billion yuan), Chongqing (20 billion yuan), Sichuan (17.1 billion yuan), and Gansu (14.8 billion yuan) [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Trends - The acceleration in special bond issuance aligns with market expectations, as the issuance speed has been generally slow compared to previous years [2]. - The issuance pace of new special bonds is expected to increase in the second and third quarters of 2025, as local governments finalize their project lists and implement self-review guidelines [2].