导语 各城市库存规模及开工进度显著分化，专项债收储仍需进一步细化落地。 ◎ 文 / 马千里 研究视点 2025年，房地产稳市场进入新阶段，在行业土地成交规模连续4年维持-20%负增长，宅地出让建筑面积已经低于新 房成交规模的大背景之下，行业正式进入了去库存新阶段。但是基于保证市场活力，保障符合好房子新规用地的出 让规模，宅地出让规模进一步下降的空间已经较小。因此加快行业库存盘活，更重要的还是依赖于库存收储。2025 年以来中央部委多次表态，将加快推进专项债收储，并出台了正式文件， 明确将存量闲置地块优先纳入收储计 划， 赋予地方政府在收购定价、用途上的自主权。 据CRIC监测，目前全国已经有313个城市发布了存量住宅用地规模（清单），对于各地主管部门厘清潜在库存规 模，加快闲置用地收储起到了良好的辅助决策作用。就行业研究角度而言，也为结构性研究各地库存压力提供了新 的视角。本文将深入剖析当前典型城市潜在库存规模及专项债收储进度，旨在为房地产市场的健康发展提供有价值 的参考。本文主要观点如下： 1，行业已进入去库存深水区，盘活存量用地愈加迫切。 近年来各地狭义库存去化周期已有明显改善，但"顽固"的 潜在库存仍在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in June has exceeded 860 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for over 50% of the total, indicating a significant acceleration in the issuance speed of local bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Local Bond Issuance Overview - The total planned issuance of local bonds in June has reached 861.2 billion yuan, with the proportions of new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing special bonds being 8.62% (74.2 billion yuan), 13.51% (116.4 billion yuan), 50.39% (434 billion yuan), and 21.35% (183.9 billion yuan) respectively [1]. - Six provinces (municipalities) have planned to issue over 50 billion yuan in bonds this month, with Beijing leading at 123.2 billion yuan, followed by Zhejiang (95.8 billion yuan) and Yunnan (68.8 billion yuan) [1]. Group 2: Special Bond Issuance Details - In June, 12 provinces have new special bonds accounting for over half of their local bond issuance, with Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong having over 85% of their new special bonds [2]. - The top ten provinces for new special bond issuance are: Zhejiang (86.6 billion yuan), Beijing (66.1 billion yuan), Fujian (45.7 billion yuan), Shandong (31.8 billion yuan), Hubei (30 billion yuan), Guangdong (30 billion yuan), Anhui (24.8 billion yuan), Chongqing (20 billion yuan), Sichuan (17.1 billion yuan), and Gansu (14.8 billion yuan) [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Trends - The acceleration in special bond issuance aligns with market expectations, as the issuance speed has been generally slow compared to previous years [2]. - The issuance pace of new special bonds is expected to increase in the second and third quarters of 2025, as local governments finalize their project lists and implement self-review guidelines [2].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has entered a critical phase of inventory reduction, with a pressing need to activate existing land resources as the market stabilizes in 2025. The central government has emphasized accelerating the collection of idle land through special bonds, granting local governments autonomy in pricing and usage [3][8]. Group 1: Inventory Status - The industry is in a deep inventory reduction phase, with the broad inventory scale in typical cities reaching 3.2 times that of the narrow inventory, and the broad digestion cycle generally exceeding 5 years [3][4]. - The narrow inventory has decreased by approximately 9% since its peak in September 2024, but the broad inventory remains high, with a slight increase of 0.7% due to the sale of quality land [9][10]. - The total area of proposed land for collection has reached 6,565 hectares, which could lead to a 54% increase in new home sales in the first four months of 2025 [4][35]. Group 2: City-Level Inventory Disparities - Significant disparities exist in potential inventory across cities, with Chongqing, Zhengzhou, and Shenyang facing urgent challenges in land collection, as their potential inventory exceeds 1,000 hectares [4][20]. - High inventory cities like Chongqing and Zhengzhou have over 70% of undeveloped land, necessitating accelerated collection efforts and exploration of converting ongoing projects into affordable housing [4][23]. - Cities with lower inventory pressures, such as Beijing and Hefei, have a potential digestion cycle of only 1 year, indicating a healthier supply-demand relationship [20][37]. Group 3: Collection Strategies and Challenges - The collection of idle land is primarily focused on third- and fourth-tier cities, with 84% of the proposed collection area concentrated in these regions [5][39]. - The collection plans are expected to significantly reduce the broad inventory digestion cycle in cities like Zhengzhou and Kunming by over 1 year [6][39]. - The implementation of special bonds for land collection needs to accelerate, with a focus on transparency and precise identification of inventory pressure in different city sectors to enhance targeted policies [6][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is at a pivotal point for inventory management, with the rapid implementation of special bond collection policies and deepening supply-demand reforms contributing to market stabilization [36][44]. - The core challenge remains the high level of broad inventory, with the special bond collection serving as a key tool to address this issue [37][38]. - Continuous efforts are required to expand the scope of land collection in high-inventory cities, while also focusing on high-traffic areas to restore market health [39][40].

Focus on National Special Bonds - As of May 13, 171 cities have announced special bond storage plans, with a total storage amount of 391.8 billion yuan, involving a land storage area of 6,565 hectares, which accelerates the inventory reduction in the real estate market by 54% for 2025, and reduces the nationwide inventory de-stocking cycle by over 2 months [1] - City investment enterprises are the main force in land recovery, accounting for 70% of the acquisition area, with an average storage price of 35.06 million yuan per hectare; central state-owned enterprises account for 12% but have the highest average storage price at 39.98 million yuan per hectare; private enterprises account for only 17% with an average storage price of 33.52 million yuan per hectare [1] Macro Dynamics - The central bank conducted a net injection of 29.5 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with an operation rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level [3] - This week, the central bank has conducted a total of 486 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan due to the maturity of 8.36 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase agreements and 125 billion yuan in one-year MLF [3] Regional Highlights - Shandong Province plans to issue 12.453 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds to replace existing hidden debts, as part of a total bond issuance scale of 37.396 billion yuan [4] Issuance Dynamics - Luoyang Investment Holding Group completed the issuance of 380 million yuan in short-term financing bonds at an interest rate of 1.95%, with the funds intended for repaying maturing debt financing tools [7] - Hebi State-owned Capital Operation Group plans to issue 800 million yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8] - Shangqiu Ancient City Protection Development Company plans to issue up to 1.635 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with the underwriting fee rates announced [9] - Luoyang Guojin Industrial Investment Group intends to issue up to 500 million yuan in corporate bonds, marking its first appearance in the bond market [11] - Two companies in Henan have been approved to register 2.3 billion yuan in debt financing tools [12] Debt Market Entities - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced personnel changes for 10 central enterprises, including new appointments and retirements [17] Debt Market Sentiment - Xiamen Road and Bridge Construction Group's deputy secretary has been placed under disciplinary review and investigation for serious violations [18] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has terminated the review of Cixi State Investment's 3 billion yuan private bond project [19] - Sanmenxia High-tech Investment Group's 1 billion yuan corporate bond project has also been terminated [20] - Gansu Construction Investment Group's deputy secretary and general manager is under investigation for serious violations [21] - Beijing Xinwei Communication has been publicly reprimanded by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for failing to disclose financial reports on time [22] Market Perspectives - S&P Global Ratings predicts that the issuance rates for city investment overseas bonds are unlikely to decrease due to high refinancing pressures and costs [23] - The contradiction between high financing costs and debt reduction policies remains, with a focus on reducing local government interest payment pressures [23] - Regulatory trends indicate a controlled approach to traditional city investment increments while maintaining some flexibility in overseas financing channels [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of land storage plans by local governments in response to the central government's policies, highlighting a significant increase in land acquisition amounts and areas, which is expected to aid in the inventory reduction of the real estate market by 2025 [2][4][25]. Group 1: Land Storage Plans - Since 2025, 171 cities have announced land storage plans totaling 391.8 billion yuan, with a land area of 6,565 hectares, which is projected to accelerate inventory reduction in the housing market by 54% [2][4]. - In April alone, the announced land storage area reached 7,198 hectares, with a monetary value of 173 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the first quarter [3][4]. - The average theoretical construction area from the proposed residential land storage exceeds 130 million square meters, which is more than half of the estimated new housing sales for the first four months of 2025 [6]. Group 2: Focus on Third and Fourth Tier Cities - The majority of the land storage efforts are concentrated in third and fourth-tier cities, with 5,437 hectares (84% of the total) planned for acquisition, amounting to 165.9 billion yuan [10][14]. - Among the cities, Zhengzhou leads with a planned storage area of 273 hectares, while Xi'an has the highest total acquisition price at 12.56 billion yuan [14][18]. Group 3: Impact on Inventory Reduction - If the proposed land storage plans are fully implemented, 14 cities could see their inventory turnover periods decrease by over one year, with some cities like Jiujiang and Liu'an potentially reducing their turnover periods by more than three years [19]. - Zhengzhou, with a new housing transaction volume of 5 million square meters, has improved its inventory turnover period by 1.1 years due to effective land storage execution [19]. Group 4: Types of Enterprises Involved - State-owned enterprises dominate the land acquisition market, accounting for 70% of the total area acquired, while private enterprises only represent 17% [21]. - The average acquisition price for state-owned enterprises is the highest at 3,998 million yuan per hectare, reflecting their focus on prime locations [21]. Group 5: Recommendations for Improvement - The article suggests that local authorities should expedite the conversion of proposed land storage into actual storage and enhance transparency regarding land ownership and development progress to better manage inventory pressures [25].

任何投资交易系统都不会100%的盈利，投资就是在一定条件下的试错。对了，让利润飞；错了，止损跑路。既然都是试错，就不要有执念。 ——笔记哥《交易》 彭博消息尚未证实，但万科股债的积极反应提升了可信度，债市也小跌以示尊重。其实自从深国资以"白衣骑士"的剧本空降，市场已将万科从ICU中抬 出，不过今日消息的关键在于"专项债收储"，打开想象空间、红红火火过节。 -------------------------- 【笔记20250212— "松且贵"的资金、"负carry"的债券（-彭博称中国考虑帮助万科偿还债务-股市上涨+资金面边际转松=微上)】 资金面边际转松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展5580亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有6970亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1390亿元。 资金面边际转松，但资金价格仍偏贵，隔夜与7天期均在1.8%之上。 今日资金面缓和，受"政府考虑帮助万科偿债"消息影响，股市尾盘涨幅扩大，债市利率小幅上行。 早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率平开在1.615%。上午股市震荡，10Y国债利率亦围绕1.615%窄幅震荡。午后彭博称"中国考虑提供68亿美元融资计划以 帮助万科偿还债务，拨出200 ...