Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The issuance progress of new local government bonds has not accelerated significantly. The report presents detailed data on local government bond issuance, including new bonds, refinancing bonds, and special bonds, as well as their issuance schedules and trends [1][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: 3月23日 - 3月29日地方债披露发行3085.59亿元，其中新增债1114.52亿元（新增一般债90.37亿元，新增专项债1024.15亿元），再融资债1971.06亿元；3月16日 - 3月22日地方债共发行3422.34亿元，其中新增债1282.78亿元（新增一般债142.30亿元，新增专项债1140.47亿元），再融资债2139.57亿元[1][4][5] - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: In March 2026, the planned issuance of local government bonds across the country was 9075 billion yuan, a decrease of 742 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, while the actual disclosed issuance was 10588 billion yuan. The planned repayment of local government bonds was 4191 billion yuan, with a net financing of 4884 billion yuan. The planned issuance in April, May, and June 2026 also showed a decreasing trend compared to the same period in 2025 [7] 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of March 22, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 30.88%, and that of new special bonds was 23.33% [26] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of March 22 is presented in a graph, with the statistical scope including both issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [31] 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 22, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 9055.71 billion yuan, with an additional 280.25 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (811.59 billion yuan), Sichuan (773.84 billion yuan), and Henan (680.27 billion yuan) [6] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 22, the special new special bonds in 2026 totaled 1630.46 billion yuan, and since 2023, 27177.18 billion yuan had been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu (2700.35 billion yuan), Guangdong (1390.28 billion yuan), and Henan (1388.61 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions were Jiangsu (260.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (151.00 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (117.00 billion yuan) [6] 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Graphs show the primary and secondary spreads of local government bonds on March 16 and March 22, 2026, including spreads for different maturities (1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, 30Y) and the overall spread, as well as their changes [41] - **Regional Secondary Spread**: A graph presents the regional secondary spreads of local government bonds [42] - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The graph shows the investment direction of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering the investment direction of issued new bonds [43] 5. Weighted Average Issuance Term - From March 16 - 22, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.68 years, that of national bonds was 5.41 years, and that of government bonds was 8.83 years. From March 23 - 29, the corresponding figures were 15.47 years, 7 years, and 12.41 years respectively. As of March 20, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds in 2026 was 16.76 years, a decrease of 0.2 years compared to the same period in 2025; that of national bonds was 5.79 years, an increase of 1.6 years; and that of government bonds was 6.17 years, a decrease of 3.7 years [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds, including primary and secondary market conditions, such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates. It also provides information on the issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026 and the next week [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 272.5 billion yuan, with a net financing of 255.2 billion yuan, a net increase of 64.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance included 4.8 billion yuan in new general bonds, 78.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, 54.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 135.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (28%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 93%, a decrease compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 7%, 23%, 28%, 15%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 25 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 112.6 billion yuan were issued. As of the end of this week, 28 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 804.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds in 2026, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang had relatively large issuance volumes, with 80 billion yuan, 57.3 billion yuan, and 56.4 billion yuan respectively. This week, 5.6 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 118 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 15.1 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 10.3 billion yuan respectively [2][16][20]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 19.2bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 22.5bp. The issuance spreads of 7 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Fujian, and Hebei had relatively high local government bond issuance spreads this week, at 23.8bp, 20.5bp, and 19.3bp respectively [2][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of the funds raised by new special bonds in 2026 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (34%), transportation infrastructure (17%), affordable housing projects (14%), social undertakings (11%), and agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy (8%) [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance volumes in January and February, the total disclosed issuance volume for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 936.2 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance volumes of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter are 1387.6 billion yuan and 1570.1 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 135.5 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 70.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 64.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 190.6 billion yuan compared to this week. The issuance includes 19.4 billion yuan in new general bonds, 17.7 billion yuan in new special bonds, 55.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 43.2 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [3][31][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had a relatively high secondary spread. Except for the 20 - year and 30 - year local government bonds whose secondary spreads widened, the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spread of 10 - year local government bonds reached 14.4bp. From the historical quantile of the past three years, the historical quantile of the 7 - year local government bond secondary spread was relatively high, at 59%. Regionally, the 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the 10 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads, exceeding 12bp [4][5][35]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds in Ningxia had a relatively high turnover rate. This week, the trading volume of local government bonds reached 632.1 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.12%. Among them, the trading volume of local government bonds in Guangdong was large, reaching 85.5 billion yuan; the turnover rate of local government bonds in Ningxia was relatively high, reaching 5.7% [5][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of local bonds in the week of March 2, 2026, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading volume and turnover rate, and also presents the issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026 and the upcoming week [1][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local bonds issued 2564 billion yuan in total, with a net financing of 1904 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 2118 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance includes 125 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1272 billion yuan of new special bonds, 211 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 956 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 2725 billion yuan, with a repayment of 173 billion yuan, and a net financing of 2552 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 648 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds is the highest (51%), and the issuance proportion of 10Y and above is 96%, showing an increase compared to the previous issuance week. The issuance proportions of 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds are 1%, 22%, 12%, 11%, and 51% respectively, with the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds increasing significantly and that of 10Y local bonds decreasing by about 9 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued 1167 billion yuan. In 2026, 27 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 7959 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang have relatively large issuance volumes of 800 billion yuan, 573 billion yuan, and 564 billion yuan respectively. This week, 53 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1055 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 151 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 103 billion yuan respectively [2][15][20]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local bonds is 19.7bp, widening compared to the previous issuance week. The 30Y local bonds have the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 23.4bp. The issuance spreads of 3Y, 10Y, and 30Y local bonds have all widened, while those of other - term local bonds have narrowed. This week, Ningxia, Liaoning, and Hebei have relatively high local bond issuance spreads, at 25.4bp, 22.7bp, and 22.4bp respectively [2][25]. - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, since 2026, the fundraising of new special bonds has been mainly directed towards cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (18%), affordable housing projects (15%), social undertakings (11%), and land reserves (8%) [2][28][29]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance scale in January and February, the total disclosed issuance scale for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 9347 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 13916 billion yuan and 15647 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spread of 10Y local bonds is relatively high. Except for the narrowing of the secondary spreads of 5Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds, the secondary spreads of other - term local bonds have all widened. The secondary spread of 10Y local bonds reaches 15.9bp. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 7Y local bonds is relatively high, at 64%. Region - wise, the 7 - 10Y local bonds in each region have relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of local bonds over 10Y in medium - level regions are also relatively high, exceeding 12bp [5][35]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous issuance week. The turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high. This week, the trading volume of local bonds reached 2390 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.42%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local bonds is large, reaching 231 billion yuan, and the turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high, reaching 1.5% [5][39].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi Provincial Finance Department successfully issued the first batch of government bonds for the year, totaling 49.22 billion yuan, as part of a proactive fiscal policy to enhance local debt issuance efficiency [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Bond Issuance Details - The first batch of government bonds includes 11.82 billion yuan in new bonds and 37.4 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [1][2] - The bonds have maturities of 7, 10, and 15 years, with a credit rating of AAA and an average interest rate of 2.09% [1][2] - The average bid-to-cover ratio for the bonds was 23.96 times, indicating strong market demand [1][2] Fiscal Policy and Strategy - The issuance aligns with the provincial government's directive to continue promoting bond issuance as part of a more active fiscal policy [1][2] - The Finance Department aims to improve the quality of local debt issuance by optimizing cash management and bond issuance strategies, considering factors like maturity distribution and market preferences [1][2] - The department has added three general underwriters as deputy lead underwriters to foster healthy competition among underwriters and enhance financial support for the real economy [1][2] Future Plans - The Finance Department plans to deepen the management of local bond issuance and efficiently organize the bond issuance process throughout the year [1][2] - The goal is to leverage bond issuance as a key driver for stabilizing investment and promoting economic growth, ensuring a positive interaction between economic development and debt management [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including issuance forecasts, historical reviews, special bond issuance progress, regional issuance plans and actual issuance, and weighted average issuance terms [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/9 - 2/15 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to issue 32.2136 billion yuan, including 25.6607 billion yuan of new bonds (6.1593 billion yuan of new general bonds and 19.5014 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.5529 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.0884 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.4645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **2/2 - 2/8 Review**: A total of 57.9673 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, including 20.9811 billion yuan of new bonds (7.5535 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.4276 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 36.9861 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (4.4282 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 32.5579 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 8, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 58.3985 billion yuan, with an additional 3.3291 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Jiangsu (8 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Henan (4.8295 billion yuan) [7]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of February 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 6.9406 billion yuan, and since 2023, they totaled 255.4672 billion yuan. The top three regions in total disclosure are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Liaoning (0.8914 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **February 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, an increase of 29.53 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 90.18 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 8.49 billion yuan and a net financing of 69.27 billion yuan. - **March 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.01 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The expected repayment is 16.62 billion yuan, and the net financing is 69.27 billion yuan [8]. 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 16.12 years, and next week it is 15.48 years. As of February 6, the weighted average issuance term in February is 16.12 years, a 20.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, it is 17.04 years, a 0.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2025 [9].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is accelerating, with significant amounts of special refinancing bonds and special new special-purpose bonds being disclosed [8] - There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in 2026, and the net financing amounts vary across different months [9] Summary by Directory 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/2 - 2/8 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to be issued worth 5796.73 billion yuan, including 2098.11 billion yuan in new bonds (755.35 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1342.76 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 3698.61 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (442.82 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3255.79 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [6] - **1/26 - 2/1 Review**: A total of 4392.75 billion yuan in local government bonds were issued, including 2322.72 billion yuan in new bonds (392.03 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1930.69 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 2070.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (847.84 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1222.19 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [7] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 1st, the fifth round's second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the third batch totaled 5599.98 billion yuan, with an additional 3023.79 billion yuan to be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of the third - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (800.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Henan (482.95 billion yuan) [8] - **Special New Special - Purpose Bonds**: As of February 1st, 95.88 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds for 2026 have been disclosed, and 25546.72 billion yuan have been disclosed since 2023. The top three regions in terms of the total disclosure scale since 2023 are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan), while the top three in 2026 are Sichuan (62.58 billion yuan), Shandong (22.30 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (11.00 billion yuan) [8] 3. Local Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **2026 Plans**: In January, the planned issuance was 8059 billion yuan, an increase of 2529.96 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with an actual disclosure of 8633 billion yuan, a planned repayment of 849 billion yuan, and a net financing of 8059 billion yuan. In February, the planned issuance is 8071 billion yuan, a decrease of 3818.89 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 1662 billion yuan and a net financing of 6409 billion yuan. In March, the planned issuance is 8463 billion yuan, a decrease of 1353.98 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4272 billion yuan [9] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 17.31 years, and next week it is 16.12 years. As of January 30th, it is 17.66 years, a 7.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [10] 5. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **One - Two - Level Spread**: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local government bonds, as well as the two - level spreads by region [41][42] 6. New Special - Purpose Bond Allocations - The report provides a monthly statistics of the allocation of new special - purpose bonds, with the latest month's statistics considering only the issued new bonds [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment and trading indicators [1][5][6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: The net supply of local bonds from January 19th to January 25th was 2032 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from January 26th to February 1st is 3109 billion yuan [1][5][20] - **Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison**: In January 2026, the planned and actual issuance of local bonds are presented in detail, showing differences in various types of bonds such as new - general bonds, new - special bonds, and refinancing bonds [18][22] Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of January 25th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 2.70%, and that of new special bonds was 3.49% [28] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of January 25th is presented in a time - series chart [28] Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20000 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 2759.33 billion yuan, with an additional 980.25 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Anhui [7][32] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 95.88 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25546.72 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2026 are Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang [7][35] Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented, including overall and regional secondary spreads [38] - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in a monthly statistics chart [40]

Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have increased compared to the previous period, with total issuance/net financing for the period of January 19-25, 2026, reaching 231.57 billion yuan/203.16 billion yuan, up from 74.84 billion yuan/68.57 billion yuan in the previous period [3] - The weighted average issuance term of local bonds has shortened to 15.88 years from 19.45 years in the previous period [3][4] - The issuance of new general bonds is lagging behind previous years, while the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated significantly since late January [3][5] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 totals 23,587 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][13] - The issuance schedule for January and March 2026 is larger than in previous years due to the later timing of the Spring Festival [3][18] - The issuance of special new bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts has reached 1,023 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1,667 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts [3][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads decreasing to 21.02 BP and 14.29 BP, respectively [19][22] - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds has increased slightly to 0.66% from 0.64% in the previous period [19][26] - The current 10-year local bonds still offer a certain level of cost-effectiveness, with the spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 BP at the upper limit and 5-10 BP at the lower limit [3][19]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Liaoning has issued a 10-year general local government bond with a scale of 8.56862 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.0200% [1] - The bond was issued with a marginal multiple of 2.81 times, which is higher than the expected multiple of 2.08 [1]

Core Insights - The total issuance of local government bonds is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2025, with special bonds accounting for over 70% of the total [1] - Major provinces such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong are projected to issue more than 500 billion yuan in bonds in 2025, with Jiangsu planning to issue 100 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds to replace existing hidden debts [1] - The market anticipates that local bond issuance will maintain a strong pace in 2026, with funding directed towards new infrastructure, strategic emerging industries, and social welfare, providing a solid foundation for sustainable economic development [1]