证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2026 年 3 月 2 日 3 月计划发行 9347 亿元地方债 ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 2564 亿元，净融资为 1904 亿元，净融资环比增 加 2118 亿元。本周地方债发行量为 2564 亿元，偿还量为 660 亿元，净融资为 1904 亿元。发行债券中，新增一般债 125 亿元，新增专项债 1272 亿元，再融 资一般债 211 亿元，再融资专项债 956 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 30Y 地方债发行占比最高（51%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 96%，与上一发行周相比有所提升。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行 占比分别为 1%、22%、12%、11%、51%，其中 30Y 地方债发行占比上升较 多；10Y 地方债发行占比下降较多，环比下降约 9 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 19.7bp，较上一发行周有所走阔。 其中 30Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 23.4bp。本周 3Y、10Y、30Y 地方 债发行利差均有走阔，其余期限地方债发行利差有所收窄。本周宁夏、辽宁、 河北发行地 ...

山西晚报·山河+讯（记者 张磊）近日，省财政厅在中央国债公司成功发行今年首批政府债券492.2亿 元。 在首批政府债券中，新增债券118.2亿元，再融资债券374亿元。本次债券期限包含7年、10年、15年 期，信用评级均为AAA级，平均利率2.09%，平均投标倍数为23.96倍。 今年是我省"十五五"开局之年，省财政厅坚决贯彻省委省政府"继续抓好债券发行"的批示要求，落实更 加积极的财政政策，不断提升地方债发行工作质效。首先是优布局，统筹库款管理与债券发行，综合研 判到期本息分布、市场偏好等因素，合理设计期限窗口选择，科学制定全年发行计划。其次是强联动， 择优增补3家一般承销商为副主承销商，激励承销团成员良性竞争，进一步充实金融资本支持实体经济 力量。最后是早发力，严格履行政府依法举债程序，在省人大审批后第一时间组织发行，节前发行置换 债券332.91亿元，有效缓解地方化债压力，腾挪空间资源全力谋划发展。 在首批政府债券中，新增债券118.2亿元，再融资债券374亿元。本次债券期限包含7年、10年、15年 期，信用评级均为AAA级，平均利率2.09%，平均投标倍数为23.96倍。 今年是我省"十五五"开局之年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including issuance forecasts, historical reviews, special bond issuance progress, regional issuance plans and actual issuance, and weighted average issuance terms [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/9 - 2/15 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to issue 32.2136 billion yuan, including 25.6607 billion yuan of new bonds (6.1593 billion yuan of new general bonds and 19.5014 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.5529 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.0884 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.4645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **2/2 - 2/8 Review**: A total of 57.9673 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, including 20.9811 billion yuan of new bonds (7.5535 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.4276 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 36.9861 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (4.4282 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 32.5579 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 8, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 58.3985 billion yuan, with an additional 3.3291 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Jiangsu (8 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Henan (4.8295 billion yuan) [7]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of February 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 6.9406 billion yuan, and since 2023, they totaled 255.4672 billion yuan. The top three regions in total disclosure are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Liaoning (0.8914 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **February 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, an increase of 29.53 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 90.18 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 8.49 billion yuan and a net financing of 69.27 billion yuan. - **March 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.01 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The expected repayment is 16.62 billion yuan, and the net financing is 69.27 billion yuan [8]. 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 16.12 years, and next week it is 15.48 years. As of February 6, the weighted average issuance term in February is 16.12 years, a 20.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, it is 17.04 years, a 0.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2025 [9].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is accelerating, with significant amounts of special refinancing bonds and special new special-purpose bonds being disclosed [8] - There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in 2026, and the net financing amounts vary across different months [9] Summary by Directory 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/2 - 2/8 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to be issued worth 5796.73 billion yuan, including 2098.11 billion yuan in new bonds (755.35 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1342.76 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 3698.61 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (442.82 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3255.79 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [6] - **1/26 - 2/1 Review**: A total of 4392.75 billion yuan in local government bonds were issued, including 2322.72 billion yuan in new bonds (392.03 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1930.69 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 2070.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (847.84 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1222.19 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [7] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 1st, the fifth round's second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the third batch totaled 5599.98 billion yuan, with an additional 3023.79 billion yuan to be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of the third - batch disclosure scale are Jiangsu (800.00 billion yuan), Zhejiang (564.00 billion yuan), and Henan (482.95 billion yuan) [8] - **Special New Special - Purpose Bonds**: As of February 1st, 95.88 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds for 2026 have been disclosed, and 25546.72 billion yuan have been disclosed since 2023. The top three regions in terms of the total disclosure scale since 2023 are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Henan (1325.34 billion yuan), while the top three in 2026 are Sichuan (62.58 billion yuan), Shandong (22.30 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (11.00 billion yuan) [8] 3. Local Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **2026 Plans**: In January, the planned issuance was 8059 billion yuan, an increase of 2529.96 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with an actual disclosure of 8633 billion yuan, a planned repayment of 849 billion yuan, and a net financing of 8059 billion yuan. In February, the planned issuance is 8071 billion yuan, a decrease of 3818.89 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 1662 billion yuan and a net financing of 6409 billion yuan. In March, the planned issuance is 8463 billion yuan, a decrease of 1353.98 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, with a planned repayment of 4191 billion yuan and a net financing of 4272 billion yuan [9] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 17.31 years, and next week it is 16.12 years. As of January 30th, it is 17.66 years, a 7.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [10] 5. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **One - Two - Level Spread**: The report presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local government bonds, as well as the two - level spreads by region [41][42] 6. New Special - Purpose Bond Allocations - The report provides a monthly statistics of the allocation of new special - purpose bonds, with the latest month's statistics considering only the issued new bonds [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment and trading indicators [1][5][6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: The net supply of local bonds from January 19th to January 25th was 2032 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from January 26th to February 1st is 3109 billion yuan [1][5][20] - **Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison**: In January 2026, the planned and actual issuance of local bonds are presented in detail, showing differences in various types of bonds such as new - general bonds, new - special bonds, and refinancing bonds [18][22] Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of January 25th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 2.70%, and that of new special bonds was 3.49% [28] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of January 25th is presented in a time - series chart [28] Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20000 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 2759.33 billion yuan, with an additional 980.25 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Anhui [7][32] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 95.88 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25546.72 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2026 are Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang [7][35] Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented, including overall and regional secondary spreads [38] - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in a monthly statistics chart [40]

【申万固收】黄伟平 杨雪芳 正文 1. 本期地方债发行量上升，加权发行期限缩短 摘要 本期地方债发行与净融资皆环比上升，预计下期地方债发行和净融资将环比大幅上升。 本期（2026.1.19-2026.1.25）地方债合计发行/净融资2315.70亿 元/2031.60亿元（上期为748.41亿元/685.66亿元），下期（2026.1.26-2026.2.1）预计发行/净融资4392.75亿元/3108.54亿元。从加权发行期限来看，本 期地方债加权发行期限为15.88年，较上期（2026.1.12-2026.1.18）的19.45年有所缩短。从发行情绪来看，本期10/30年地方债较同期限国债的发行利 差分别环比下降至14.64/12.78BP（上期为14.70/19.80BP），全场倍数环比皆有所提升（本期分别为20倍和17倍，上期为27倍和23倍）。 今年新增一般债发行进度慢于往年同期，但新增专项债发行在1月下旬开始明显提速。 截至2026年1月23日，新增一般债/新增专项债累计发行占全年额 度的比例分别为2.7%和4.0%，考虑下期预计发行为7.6%和8.4%。2025年累计发行进度分别为12.6%/4 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Liaoning has issued a 10-year general local government bond with a scale of 8.56862 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.0200% [1] - The bond was issued with a marginal multiple of 2.81 times, which is higher than the expected multiple of 2.08 [1]

Core Insights - The total issuance of local government bonds is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2025, with special bonds accounting for over 70% of the total [1] - Major provinces such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong are projected to issue more than 500 billion yuan in bonds in 2025, with Jiangsu planning to issue 100 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds to replace existing hidden debts [1] - The market anticipates that local bond issuance will maintain a strong pace in 2026, with funding directed towards new infrastructure, strategic emerging industries, and social welfare, providing a solid foundation for sustainable economic development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in local government bond issuance, highlighting an increase in issuance volume and a lengthening of the weighted average maturity of bonds, while forecasting a decrease in issuance and net financing in the upcoming period [4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds for the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026, reached 1176.64 billion yuan and 1146.68 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 260.00 billion yuan and 174.49 billion yuan in the previous period [4]. - The weighted average maturity of local government bonds increased to 21.36 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 5.26 years [4]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21076 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Refinancing - A total of 33 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, along with 256 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and 36 billion yuan for repaying existing debts [4]. - The issuance progress for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts reached 1.3% as of January 9, 2026 [4]. Group 3: Bond Yield and Liquidity - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10-year bonds to 23.18 basis points, while it widened for 30-year bonds to 17.76 basis points [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds increased to 0.65%, up from 0.24% in the previous period [4]. Group 4: Regional Bond Performance - Regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao exhibited better yield and liquidity for 7-10 year local government bonds compared to the national average [4]. - The current value of 10-year local government bonds is seen as having a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 basis points at the upper end and 5-10 basis points at the lower end [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current issuance and net financing of local government bonds have increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened this period. The issuance progress of new special bonds at the beginning of this year is faster than in previous years. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to the same period in 2025, with a larger planned issuance scale in January and March [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds. The weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period. Currently, 10 - year and 15 - year local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (January 5 - 11, 2026) is 117.664 billion yuan/114.668 billion yuan (the previous period was 26 billion yuan/17.449 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 70.201 billion yuan/63.925 billion yuan in the next period (January 12 - 18, 2026). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period is 21.36 years, significantly longer than 5.26 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 0.1% and 2.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 0.1% and 2.5%. The cumulative issuance progress was 0.0%/0.0% and 2.8%/0.8% in 2025, and 0.0%/0.0% and 0.0%/0.0% in 2024 [2][18]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 210.76 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of January 9, 2026, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 210.76 billion yuan. The issuance in Q1 26 may be similar to Q1 25, with the front - loaded issuance of refinancing bonds boosting the issuance volume. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The issuance terms of local government bonds in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Beijing in Q1 show a shortening trend, but the term of bonds issued in the first week of this year is still relatively long [2][24]. - This period, 3.3 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 25.6 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively [2][21]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period - As of January 9, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 23.18BP and 17.76BP respectively. Compared with December 31, 2025, they have narrowed by 0.09BP and widened by 2.50BP respectively, and are at the 73.70% and 65.50% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period is 0.65%, an increase compared to 0.24% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][43]. - Currently, 10/15Y local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].