④乌总统：结束冲突步骤清单趋近可行，将与川普商讨敏感议题 美联储—①理事沃勒：自美联储上次会议以来，现有数据显示变化不大，通胀并非大问题。我担心的是 劳动力市场，我主张在12月降息。 11月25日资讯分享 周一，受市场对美联储下月降息预期增强的提振，现货黄金大幅走高，一度较日低涨近100美元，最终 收涨1.69%，报4134.79美元/盎司； 鉴于俄乌达成和平协议的关键症结仍未见进展，国际原油结束三日连跌。WTI原油逼近59美元关口，最 终收涨1.67%，报58.89美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.39%，报62.79美元/桶。 俄乌局势—①川普：（谈及乌克兰会谈）可能有好事发生，乌克兰谈判可能正在取得进展。 ②德国：本周乌克兰谈判不会取得突破。 ③乌克兰：此前的28点和平计划已不复存在，美乌已起草新的19点和平计划，但最敏感的部分将留给两 国总统决定。 ②美联储戴利：就业市场可能突然恶化，支持在12月降息。尽管戴利今年对货币政策没有投票权，但她 很少在公开场合与美联储主席鲍威尔持不同意见。 ③市场出现美联储应等待非农公布，推迟12月议息时间的观点。 ④美联储12月降息概率升至八成。 美国9月PCE将于12月 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 环球时报特约记者 裴茗 柳玉鹏】当地时间23日，美乌代表在瑞士就 美方所提结束俄乌冲突的"28点计划"举行会谈，地点在美国常驻联合国日内瓦办事处代表团驻地。美国 《纽约时报》称，这场会谈被描绘为一次旨在弥合分歧的努力。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）描述 说，经过紧张的谈判，美国国务卿鲁比奥在会见记者时的表态显得非常积极乐观。据外媒报道，美乌官 员已经讨论了对"28点计划"进行修改，而俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫24日表示，俄方目前不清楚美乌在日 内瓦接触期间制定的和平方案具体文本内容。备受舆论关注的是，欧洲国家还为23日的会谈准备了一份 针对"28点计划"的"反提案"，对美方提案进行逐一删改。不少俄媒批评称，欧洲的提议"脱离现实"，旨 在拖延谈判进程。 克宫：俄未获得任何关于日内瓦谈判的信息 "欧盟就乌克兰问题划红线。"美国"政治新闻网"以此为题报道称，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩23日表示， 对于欧盟而言，俄乌和平协议有三个关键标准：边界不能以武力改变；作为主权国家，乌克兰的武装力 量不能被限制；欧盟在保障乌克兰和平方面所处的核心地位须得到充分体现。 据BBC23日报道，对于欧洲的立场及 ...

美国官员将该计划描述为"工作文件"，但要将其转变为乌克兰及其欧洲盟友更能接受的版本，将是一项 艰巨的外交任务。 乌克兰会放弃顿涅茨克吗？ 欧洲和乌克兰谈判代表上周日与美国官员进行紧张磋商，试图修改华盛顿本周提出的和平计划细节，他 们认为该计划对俄罗斯极为有利。 美国正敦促基辅在周四前接受这份包含28个条款的协议，该协议框架松散且缺乏细节。草案纳入了俄罗 斯多项长期诉求，同时突破了基辅的明确红线，并回避了欧洲的安全关切。 最困难的问题是乌克兰军队从目前控制的顿涅茨克省东部地区撤军，它解释了美俄为何重新推动和平协 议——这将通过外交手段实现俄罗斯总统普京的军队自2014年以来未能攻占的目标。 随着俄罗斯军队在顿涅茨克前线取得缓慢但渐进的进展，美国总统特朗普确信俄罗斯在那里的胜利不可 避免。放弃乌克兰人为保卫而流血牺牲的领土，可能会在乌克兰引发高度争议和动荡， 留在待移交地 区的数万名乌克兰人将被迫流离失所。这意味着乌克兰将放弃由斯洛夫扬斯克、克拉马托尔斯克、德鲁 日基夫卡和康斯坦丁诺夫卡等城市组成的"堡垒带"，这些城市自2014年以来一直是抵御俄罗斯军队的屏 障。 该计划称乌克兰"将获得可靠的安全保障"，但没有提 ...

俄罗斯外交部发言人玛丽亚·扎哈罗娃（Maria Zakharova）周三表示，对于近期媒体报道中提及的所谓 俄乌"协议"，俄方尚未通过官方渠道收到美方的任何相关信息。 扎哈罗娃在接受俄罗斯国家通讯社塔斯社（TASS）采访时称，尽管莫斯科方面一直在关注众多"描述各 类进程"的报道，但此类消息应基于官方沟通而非媒体叙事进行评估。 "美国设有解决这些问题、展开讨论及谈判进程的官方渠道，这些渠道必须得到利用，"她表示。"外交 部尚未收到美方在这一背景下的任何信息。" 据华尔街日报报道，美国官员透露，该计划要求乌克兰向俄罗斯做出重大领土让步，并放弃部署维和部 队以防范俄方未来袭击的诉求——这些主张此前已遭基辅方面拒绝，如今再度浮出水面。 官员们表示，政府正沿用上月促成美国斡旋加沙停火的模式：拟定多点纲要，再推动交战双方接受。 但一位欧洲官员称，这份由国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）、特使史蒂夫·维特科夫（Steve Witkoff）及特朗普女婿贾里德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）联合拟定、并与克里姆林宫亲信基里尔·德米特 里耶夫（Kirill Dmitriev）协商的方案，可能会遭到基辅方面及欧洲 ...

Core Points - President Putin stated that Moscow is the best location for meetings with Ukrainian leaders and that Russia will provide security guarantees for such talks [1] - Putin expressed willingness to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky but believes that meaningful agreements are unlikely due to existing legal and technical barriers [1] - Russia views any foreign military presence in Ukraine as a legitimate target for military action and asserts that foreign troops would be meaningless if a lasting peace agreement is reached [1] - Putin reiterated that Russia will not accept Ukraine's NATO membership and emphasized that Ukraine's security cannot come at the expense of Russia's security [1]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin stated that US President Trump requested a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] - Zelensky's Foreign Minister Serhiy Sherega deemed Putin's invitation to Moscow as unacceptable, mentioning that at least seven countries are willing to host a ceasefire meeting [3] - French President Macron expressed readiness to provide security guarantees to Ukraine after a peace agreement with Russia [3][7] Group 2 - Putin shared details of his conversation with Trump in Alaska, highlighting the use of "broken English" during their exchange [4] - Putin humorously referred to his press secretary as a "lazy guy" during a press conference [5] - The Eastern Economic Forum is set to take place in Vladivostok, with representatives from over 70 countries confirmed to attend [5] Group 3 - Zelensky visited Denmark to discuss further support for Ukraine with Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen [11] - Agreements were reached with Nordic and Baltic countries to enhance Ukraine's air defense systems before winter [13] - Denmark is facilitating the operation of a Ukrainian defense company and supporting Ukrainian arms manufacturers [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's shift in stance regarding the Ukraine conflict, indicating dissatisfaction with the ongoing war and a potential pause in efforts to negotiate peace [1][2]. Group 1 - Trump expressed complete dissatisfaction with all aspects of the war, stating there is not a single area he is satisfied with [1]. - He plans to make an important decision regarding the future of the conflict in "two weeks," although this timeframe is vague and not precise [1]. - This marks a significant change in Trump's position, as he had previously shown confidence in his ability to secure safety guarantees for Ukraine and facilitate meetings between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine [1]. Group 2 - Despite Trump's efforts, including a summit with Putin and meetings with Zelensky and European leaders, there has been no progress in negotiations [2]. - Analysts suggest that the White House may have misinterpreted Putin's intentions and been influenced by wishful thinking [2]. - Trump indicated he would give Putin some time to decide whether to meet with Zelensky [3].

Group 1 - President Trump stated that if the leaders of Russia and Ukraine do not meet directly within two weeks, he will make a "very important decision," potentially involving "large-scale sanctions or tariffs" [1][4] - Trump emphasized that the U.S. will monitor whether the Russian and Ukrainian leaders will meet, indicating that he has urged them to do so [2][5] - If the leaders do not meet, Trump suggested the possibility of imposing "large-scale sanctions or tariffs, or both," while also mentioning the option of the U.S. stepping back from involvement [4][5] Group 2 - Reports indicate that Trump's optimistic sentiment began to wane just days after a series of meetings with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders [5] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov mentioned that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is not currently on the agenda, although Putin is open to meeting once the agenda is set [6] - Trump shared a personal anecdote about his relationship with Putin, indicating that he would consider attending future meetings between the two leaders [6][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focusing on the cease - fire negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff increase measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policy has decreased. The short - term absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to Russian crude oil supply. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Analysts believe that the expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace weakens the risk of sanctions, and the current oil price trend is consistent with the seasonal trend. The US effort to promote a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine reduces the possibility of additional sanctions on Russia or relevant secondary tariffs on its oil buyers. Seasonally, crude oil prices usually decline before mid - October [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil [3]. - A refinery in Russia was attacked by drones and suspended oil processing. The Volgograd refinery operated by Russia's Lukoil was attacked by drones on August 13 - 14 and has suspended oil processing [3]. - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July. Partly because Reliance Industries, the world's largest refinery operator, reduced its purchases in July compared with the previous high. Indian state - owned refineries will seek other oil sources from the Middle East or the US in August and September to replace Russian oil [3]. - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 241.7 million barrels, with an expected - 158.7 million barrels and a previous value of 151.9 million barrels [3]. Regional Fundamentals - US EIA reports show that in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 0.72%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.159 million barrels per day, a 2.89% increase compared with the same period last year; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [4]. - From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries increased, while the inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries increased month - on - month [5]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policy has decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to whether India resumes the purchase of Russian oil in the spot market next week. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, and the US commercial crude oil inventory has increased by 3.03 million barrels. The crude oil export volumes of Brazil and Guyana have reached record highs. The peak season of gasoline and jet fuel demand has passed. This year's CDU autumn maintenance time is later, and the planned maintenance volume is lower than in previous years, which supports the demand for crude oil feedstock. The short - term absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to Russian crude oil supply. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus [5].

Core Points - Macron stated that a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would be good news for everyone [1] - Trump expressed confidence in his ability to reach such an agreement, believing that Putin "wants to make a deal for me" [1] Summary by Categories - **Political Dynamics** - Macron emphasized the importance of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, indicating it would benefit all parties involved [1] - Trump showcased his self-assurance regarding his capability to facilitate this agreement during discussions with European leaders [1] - **International Relations** - The interaction between Trump and Macron highlights ongoing diplomatic efforts and the significance of U.S.-Europe relations in addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]