Core Viewpoint - Ukraine is planning to hold presidential elections and a referendum on any peace agreement with Russia, amid pressure from the U.S. government to finalize peace negotiations by mid-May [2][3]. Group 1: Political Context - The U.S. has urged Ukraine to conduct key votes by May 15, or risk losing proposed security guarantees [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky aims to announce the election and referendum plans on February 24, marking the fourth anniversary of the conflict [2][3]. - There is significant pressure from the U.S. to conclude peace talks by June, coinciding with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections [2][3]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Support - Despite a decline in public support for Zelensky due to war fatigue and corruption scandals, there remains a strong desire among Ukrainians to tie the elections to his re-election [3][5]. - Polls indicate that while support for Zelensky is still considerable, it has decreased from nearly unanimous levels four years ago [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The feasibility of holding elections is complicated by ongoing conflict, with significant logistical challenges and the potential for Russian aggression disrupting the process [4][5]. - Experts warn that conducting elections under wartime conditions could undermine their legitimacy, especially if security guarantees are not in place [5][6]. - The Ukrainian parliament is expected to work on legal amendments necessary for voting under wartime conditions in March and April [4]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Zelensky's team has indicated a willingness to meet the U.S. timeline, despite the logistical hurdles of holding elections in a conflict zone [3][4]. - Holding simultaneous elections and a referendum could potentially increase voter turnout and ensure a more favorable outcome for Zelensky [5].

Group 1 - Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, Shmyhal, reported a large-scale attack by Russia on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, targeting substations and high-voltage transmission lines of 750 kV and 330 kV, as well as two thermal power plants [2][6] - In response to the attacks, nuclear power plant units are being operated at reduced load, and Ukraine's national electricity company has requested emergency power assistance from Poland [2][6] - There has been no response from the Russian side regarding the attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities [3][7] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump stated that discussions between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine regarding the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict were "very good," suggesting potential developments may occur [4][8] - The territorial and security issues concerning Ukraine remain a critical point of contention in the negotiations, with discussions about the possibility of a peace agreement by March facing significant challenges and potential delays [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO forces, aircraft, and maritime support will immediately arrive in Ukraine once a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing NATO's commitment to stand with Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia for lasting peace [1] Group 1: NATO's Position - NATO will continue to support Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia to ensure a lasting peace [1] - Stoltenberg indicated that Ukraine must make "difficult decisions" to achieve a peace agreement [1] Group 2: Russia's Response - Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia cannot accept the deployment of military personnel, military facilities, and other infrastructure by Western countries in Ukraine [1]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has indicated to Ukraine that security guarantees will only be provided after a peace agreement is signed with Russia, which Ukraine views as a core condition for ending the conflict [1] Group 1: U.S. Involvement - The U.S. has been mediating contacts between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, believing that progress has been made in the negotiations [1] - The U.S. has not imposed specific terms for the peace agreement on Ukraine, nor has it demanded concessions on territorial issues, countering claims that it is pressuring Ukraine to cede territory [1] Group 2: Ukraine's Position - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the documents regarding U.S. security guarantees are ready and awaiting a signing date and location, emphasizing that any peace agreement must uphold Ukraine's territorial integrity [1] Group 3: Russia's Stance - Russia maintains that territorial issues are fundamental to reaching a peace agreement, indicating ongoing contention in negotiations [1] - Both Russia and Ukraine are expected to meet again in Abu Dhabi for further discussions, with U.S. representatives possibly participating [1]

Core Points - Russia will hold security talks with the US and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing that lasting peace is unattainable without resolving territorial issues [1] - The Kremlin described the recent talks between Putin and US representatives as substantive and constructive, but no significant breakthroughs were announced [1] - Ukraine claims that Russia's gradual advances have come at a high cost, while Moscow refutes this assertion [2] Group 1: Meeting Details - Russian Navy Admiral Igor Kostyukov will lead the Moscow team in the trilateral security talks, while Dmitryev will meet separately with US envoy Witkoff on economic issues [1] - The meetings are part of Trump's efforts to end the ongoing conflict, which is nearing its fourth year [4] - US representatives include Witkoff and Jared Kushner, accompanied by Josh Gruenbaum, a senior advisor to the "peace committee" [3] Group 2: Key Issues - Trump stated that both Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky would be "foolish" if they cannot reach an agreement [5] - A major sticking point is Putin's demand for Ukraine to cede 20% of the territory in the eastern Donetsk region, which Zelensky refuses to relinquish [5] - Russia also demands that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and prohibits NATO troops from being stationed in Ukraine after a peace agreement [5] Group 3: Progress and Challenges - Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine's security guarantees have been finalized, but the territorial issue remains unresolved [6] - Ushakov praised the US for its extensive preparations for the upcoming security meeting, indicating hopes for progress towards ending the conflict [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains unresolved, with both sides still holding significant differences, and no peace agreement has been reached since Russia's military actions began in February 2022 [1][3]. Group 1: Statements from Leaders - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine has never been and will not be an obstacle to achieving peace [3]. - Former U.S. President Trump claimed that Zelensky, rather than Russian President Putin, is the one obstructing the peace negotiations [3]. - Kremlin spokesperson Peskov expressed agreement with Trump's statement, indicating that Russia is open to resolving the conflict [3]. Group 2: Context of the Conflict - The conflict has been ongoing for nearly four years, with significant military actions initiated by Russia in February 2022 [3]. - There is a continued emphasis on the need to apply pressure on Russia to address the ongoing attacks aimed at Ukraine's energy infrastructure [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government emphasizes the necessity and importance of continuing dialogue with the United States regarding the Ukraine issue [1] Group 1: Dialogue and Negotiations - The Russian presidential press secretary, Peskov, stated that communication channels with U.S. negotiators remain open, and discussions are ongoing [1] - Peskov expressed hope that a visit by U.S. representatives, including special envoy Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Kushner, could take place once dates are confirmed [1] Group 2: Perspectives on Ukraine - Peskov agreed with U.S. President Trump's assertion that Ukrainian President Zelensky is obstructing the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1] - The Russian side believes that the situation for the Ukrainian government is deteriorating, leading to a reduction in decision-making space [1] Group 3: Strategic Arms Treaty - Peskov mentioned that Russia is awaiting a response from the U.S. regarding its proposal to continue adhering to the New START treaty after its expiration, but has not yet received a reply [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that former President Trump believes Ukrainian President Zelensky is obstructing the peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rather than Russian President Putin [1][4][6] - Trump stated that Putin is "ready" to end the war in Ukraine, while he perceives Zelensky as relatively silent and not prepared to reach a peace agreement [3][6] - The article notes that Trump's comments contrast sharply with the views of his European allies [3][6] Group 2 - There is a possibility that Trump may meet with Zelensky during the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos, but he has not made any plans for such a meeting yet [3][6] - Trump expressed that he is unaware of reports regarding U.S. special envoy Witkoff and his son-in-law Kushner seeking to meet with Putin in Moscow [3][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting in Paris aims to establish a unified stance among European and American leaders regarding security guarantees for Ukraine, focusing on the potential deployment of multinational forces following a peace agreement with Russia [1][3][6]. Group 1: Meeting Objectives and Participants - Approximately 35 leaders and representatives from European and Western countries, including U.S. officials and Ukrainian President Zelensky, are attending the meeting to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine [1][3]. - The meeting will address five key topics, including the deployment of multinational forces in Ukraine and the supervision of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine [3][4]. Group 2: Security Guarantees and Military Support - The "Voluntary Alliance," led by the UK and France, aims to support Ukraine and will explore long-term military support and the formation of a multinational force to provide comprehensive support to the Ukrainian military [3][5]. - Discussions will include the potential role of U.S. ground troops in Ukraine to ensure the durability of any peace agreement, with U.S. intelligence support being described as a "game-changing" proposal [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges and Political Dynamics - There are significant challenges in reaching a consensus, as the European perspective emphasizes that security guarantees should be a core component of any future peace agreement, while Ukraine remains prepared for both peace and continued conflict [7]. - The internal opposition within the "Voluntary Alliance" regarding the deployment of Western troops and the need for parliamentary approval in European countries may complicate the implementation of security guarantees [7].