交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年5月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.9952%，环比增加5.752个百分点，全国样本企业出货 24.48万吨，环比增加7.23%,样本企业产量为58.4万吨，环比增加19.67%,样本企业装置检修量 预估为72.1万吨，环比减少0.82%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.4%，环比增加0.19个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为11.2624 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年4月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年4月份国内沥青总计划排产量为228.9万吨，环比减少9.7万吨， 降幅4.1%，同比增加0.4万吨，增幅0.2%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为39.4115%，环 比增加2.477个百分点，全国样本企业出货29.11万吨，环比增加42.42%,样本企业产量为52.5 万吨，环比增加6.71%,样本企业装置检修量预估为75.1万吨，环比减少5.17%,本周炼厂有所增 产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.7%，环比增加0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为9.7%，环比增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have recently increased production, but it is expected to decrease next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in April 2025 is 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 35.9583%, a month - on - month increase of 2.327 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, the building asphalt开工率 is 8.3%, the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.3076%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 20%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 32%, all lower than the historical average [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short term. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 380.22 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 863.3043 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% [8]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract fluctuating in the range of 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The supply pressure has increased recently, but it is expected to decrease next week. The planned production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the capacity utilization rate increased this week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the demand is affected by the off - season [7]. - **Cost**: Crude oil is strengthening, providing short - term support for asphalt costs, and the processing loss of asphalt has decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract in the range of 3309 - 3377 [9]. - **Likely factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [12]. - **Negative factors**: The demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Basis**: On April 17, the Shandong spot price was 3,435 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 92 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1.377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.68%; factory inventory is 909,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.76%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 140,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.50%. Social and factory inventories are accumulating, while port inventory is decreasing [10]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 06 contract closes below the MA20 [10]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report presents the basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt [19]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: The spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts are shown [22]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil are presented [25]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) are shown [28]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented [32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The profit trend of asphalt is presented [38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The spread trend between coking and asphalt profits is shown [41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The weekly shipment volume trend is presented [44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports is shown [46]. - **Production volume**: The weekly and monthly production volume trends are presented [49]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil are shown [53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The production trend of local refinery asphalt is presented [56]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate trend is presented [59]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The estimated trend of maintenance loss is shown [62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The trend of exchange warehouse receipts is presented [65]. - **Social and factory inventory**: The trends of social and factory inventories are presented [69]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: The inventory ratio trend of factory inventory is shown [72]. - **Import - export situation**: - The export and import trends of asphalt are presented [75]. - The import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt is shown [78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: The production trend of petroleum coke is presented [81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The apparent consumption trend of asphalt is presented [84]. - **Downstream demand**: - The trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion are presented [87]. - The sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators and road rollers are presented [91]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate**: - The capacity utilization rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt is presented [96]. - The capacity utilization rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt are presented [99]. - The capacity utilization rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt are presented [102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to April 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, social inventory, and factory inventory [107].