1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under pressure as refineries have increased production recently, and it is expected to increase further next week. The planned total production of domestic asphalt in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points [8]. - The demand side is sluggish. The current demand is below the historical average level. The overall demand recovery is less than expected despite the peak season stimulus. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.332%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25.6%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points [8]. - The cost support is weakening in the short term. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The processing loss of asphalt increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is weakening [9]. - The market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term. The asphalt 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3435 - 3487 [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: The planned total production of domestic asphalt in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. The refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.332%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25.6%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points [8]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The processing loss of asphalt increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is weakening, and the support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production increase raises supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is weakening, and the cost support is weakening in the short term. It is expected that the market will have a narrow - range shock in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3435 - 3487 [10]. - **Likely factors**: The relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support [13]. - **Negative factors**: The demand for high - price asphalt is insufficient. The overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [14]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price trends**: The report provides the price trends of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, including their current values, previous values, price changes, and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract price is 3268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan or 0.52% from the previous value [18]. - **Basis trends**: The report shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: The report presents the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025 [25][26]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [28][29]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report shows the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [34][35]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market price trends in different regions**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [38][39]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [41][42]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [44][45][46]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [47][48]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Production volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [52][53]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The report shows the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [56][58]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [59][61]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2023 - 2025 [62][63]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [65][66]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) trends from 2019 - 2025 [68][69][70]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: The report shows the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [73][74]. - **Factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [76][77]. - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [79][80]. - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: The report shows the import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [82][83][84]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [88][89]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment**: The report shows the highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment trends from 2020 - 2025 [91][92]. - **New local special bonds**: The report shows the new local special bonds trends from 2019 - 2025 [93]. - **Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: The report shows the infrastructure investment completion year - on - year trends from 2020 - 2024 [93]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: The report shows the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume trends, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 - 2025 [100][101]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: The report shows the construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 - 2025 [103][104]. - **Downstream开工率**: The report shows the开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [105][106][108]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [110][111].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年6月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.2987%，环比增加3.655个百分点，全国 样本企业出货29.56万吨，环比增加14.31%,样本企业产量为53.9万吨，环比增加12.76%,样本 企业装置检修量预估为73.8万吨，环比减少3.40%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或 将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.3%，环比增加0.13个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年6月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为28.6433%，环比减少3.06个百分点，全国样本企业出货 25.86万吨，环比减少5.62%,样本企业产量为47.8万吨，环比减少9.64%,样本企业装置检修量 预估为76.4万吨，环比增加0.79%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力 。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.7%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为14.047%， ...

沥青期货早报 2025年6月5日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为28.6433%，环比减少3.06个百分点，全国样本企业出货 25.86万吨，环比减少5.62%,样本企业产量为47.8万吨，环比减少9.64%,样本企业装置检修量 预估为76.4万吨，环比增加0.79%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力 。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.7%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为14.047%， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年5月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年5月份国内沥青总计划排产量为231.8万吨，环比增幅1.3%。本 周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.9952%，环比增加5.752个百分点，全国样本企业出货 24.48万吨，环比增加7.23%,样本企业产量为58.4万吨，环比增加19.67%,样本企业装置检修量 预估为72.1万吨，环比减少0.82%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.4%，环比增加0.19个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为11.2624 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年4月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年4月份国内沥青总计划排产量为228.9万吨，环比减少9.7万吨， 降幅4.1%，同比增加0.4万吨，增幅0.2%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为39.4115%，环 比增加2.477个百分点，全国样本企业出货29.11万吨，环比增加42.42%,样本企业产量为52.5 万吨，环比增加6.71%,样本企业装置检修量预估为75.1万吨，环比减少5.17%,本周炼厂有所增 产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.7%，环比增加0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为9.7%，环比增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have recently increased production, but it is expected to decrease next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in April 2025 is 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 35.9583%, a month - on - month increase of 2.327 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, the building asphalt开工率 is 8.3%, the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.3076%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 20%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 32%, all lower than the historical average [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short term. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 380.22 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 863.3043 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% [8]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract fluctuating in the range of 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The supply pressure has increased recently, but it is expected to decrease next week. The planned production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the capacity utilization rate increased this week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the demand is affected by the off - season [7]. - **Cost**: Crude oil is strengthening, providing short - term support for asphalt costs, and the processing loss of asphalt has decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract in the range of 3309 - 3377 [9]. - **Likely factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [12]. - **Negative factors**: The demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Basis**: On April 17, the Shandong spot price was 3,435 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 92 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1.377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.68%; factory inventory is 909,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.76%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 140,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.50%. Social and factory inventories are accumulating, while port inventory is decreasing [10]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 06 contract closes below the MA20 [10]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report presents the basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt [19]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: The spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts are shown [22]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil are presented [25]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) are shown [28]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented [32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The profit trend of asphalt is presented [38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The spread trend between coking and asphalt profits is shown [41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The weekly shipment volume trend is presented [44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports is shown [46]. - **Production volume**: The weekly and monthly production volume trends are presented [49]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil are shown [53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The production trend of local refinery asphalt is presented [56]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate trend is presented [59]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The estimated trend of maintenance loss is shown [62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The trend of exchange warehouse receipts is presented [65]. - **Social and factory inventory**: The trends of social and factory inventories are presented [69]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: The inventory ratio trend of factory inventory is shown [72]. - **Import - export situation**: - The export and import trends of asphalt are presented [75]. - The import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt is shown [78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: The production trend of petroleum coke is presented [81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The apparent consumption trend of asphalt is presented [84]. - **Downstream demand**: - The trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion are presented [87]. - The sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators and road rollers are presented [91]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate**: - The capacity utilization rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt is presented [96]. - The capacity utilization rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt are presented [99]. - The capacity utilization rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt are presented [102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to April 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, social inventory, and factory inventory [107].