交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年3月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 2、基差: 02月27日，山东现货价3300元/吨，06合约基差为-72元/吨，现货贴水期货。 偏空。 社会库存为109.6万吨，环比增加10.93%，厂内库存为72.9万吨，环比增加 3、库存: 18.34%，港口稀释沥青库存为库存为77万吨，环比减少3.75%。社会库存持续累 库，厂内库存持续累库，港口库存持续去库。 偏多。 4、盘面: MA20向上，06合约期价收于MA20上方。 偏多。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空增。 偏空。 每日观点 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，根据隆众对92家企业跟踪，2026年3月份国内沥青总排产量为 218.7万吨，环比增加25.1万吨，增幅13 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the total planned asphalt production in December 2025 was 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 27.5048%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise production was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume was estimated to be 996,000 tons, an increase of 3.64% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 25.4%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 6.738%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points month - on - month; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 17%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 23.5%, a decrease of 1.50 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - The cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 131.61 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 651.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month. The asphalt processing profit remained flat, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - The basis: On January 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract was - 67 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 784,000 tons, an increase of 1.82% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory was 584,000 tons, an increase of 2.10% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 570,000 tons, a decrease of 12.30% month - on - month. The social and in - plant inventories continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to decline [9]. - The disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - The main position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and lower than expected. Inventory remains stable. Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3,138 - 3,196 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Supply pressure is still high, but refineries' production cuts this week will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak, with most downstream开工率 lower than or close to historical average levels [8]. - **Cost**: Crude oil weakens, and short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: Spot is at a discount to futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Social and in - plant inventories accumulate, while port inventory decreases, which is neutral [9]. - **Disk**: The futures price is above MA20, which is bullish [9]. - **Main Position**: Net short position with a decrease in short positions, which is bearish [9]. - **Likely Factors**: High - cost crude oil provides some support; high - price supply has insufficient demand, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2026 [18][19][21]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2026 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2026 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 - 2026 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 - 2026 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2026 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2026 [42][43][44]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2026 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2026 [49][50]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2026 [52][54]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2026 [55][57]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [58][60]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical weekly asphalt产能利用率 trends from 2023 - 2026 [61][62]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends from 2018 - 2026 [64][65]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2026 [67][68][69]. - **Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2026 [71][72]. - **In - plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2026 [74][75]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025 [77][78]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical South Korean asphalt import spread trends from 2020 - 2026 [80][81][82]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 - 2025 [89][90]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025 [91]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [93][94][96]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 - 2026 [98][99]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The report shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2026 [101][102]. - **Downstream开工情况**: The report shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 - 2026 [104][105][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side shows that the total planned asphalt production in December 2025 was 2.158 million tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 29.3624%, a 3.78 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The output of sample enterprises was 490,000 tons, a 11.39% month - on - month decrease. Refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - On the demand side, the overall demand is currently below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.4%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 7.4823%, a 0.38 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 20%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 25%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a 4.39% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing profit remained unchanged, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and crude oil weakened, with expected short - term weakening of support [8]. - The basis is bearish. On January 7th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract was - 90 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - The inventory situation is neutral. The social inventory was 770,000 tons, a 3.91% month - on - month increase; the in - plant inventory was 572,000 tons, a 4.18% month - on - month decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 650,000 tons, a 38.30% month - on - month increase. The social inventory continued to accumulate, the in - plant inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [9]. - The market trend is bullish. MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - The main positions are bearish. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased [9]. - It is expected that the refineries will reduce production in the near future to alleviate supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, with overall demand falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish; inventory remains stable; crude oil weakens, and cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2603 fluctuating in the range of 3,131 - 3,189 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: The total planned asphalt production in December 2025 was 2.158 million tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. The sample capacity utilization rate this week was 29.3624%, a 3.78 - percentage - point decrease. The output of sample enterprises was 490,000 tons, a 11.39% decrease. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 961,000 tons, a 1.05% increase. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.4%, a 0.12 - percentage - point decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 was 7.4823%, a 0.38 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 20%, unchanged; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 25%, unchanged. Overall demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a 4.39% decrease. The asphalt processing profit remained unchanged, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and crude oil weakened, with expected short - term weakening of support [8]. - **Basis**: On January 7th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract was - 90 yuan/ton, bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 770,000 tons, a 3.91% increase; the in - plant inventory was 572,000 tons, a 4.18% decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 650,000 tons, a 38.30% increase. The situation is neutral [9]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 03 contract closed above MA20, bullish [9]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased, bearish [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries will reduce production to alleviate supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish. Inventory is stable, crude oil weakens, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2603 in the range of 3,131 - 3,189 [9]. - **Likely positives**: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [11]. - **Likely negatives**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [12]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price overview**: Data on the price, change, and basis of multiple asphalt contracts (such as 01 - 12 contracts) are presented, along with information on inventory, production, and sales volume [15]. - **Basis trend**: The report provides the trend charts of the Shandong and East China asphalt bases from 2020 to 2026 [18][20]. - **Spread analysis** - **Main contract spread**: The trend charts of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 are presented [23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The trend charts of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil prices from 2020 to 2026 are presented [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The trend charts of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026 are presented [29][30]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The trend charts of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026 are presented [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional market price trend**: The trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 to 2026 is presented [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The trend chart of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 is presented [39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The trend chart of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 is presented [43]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipment volume**: The weekly shipment volume trend from 2020 to 2026 is presented [45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 is presented [47]. - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production trends from 2019 to 2026 are presented [50]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil production trend**: The trend chart of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 is presented [54]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented [56]. - **开工率**: The weekly开工率 trend from 2021 to 2026 is presented [59]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The trend chart of maintenance loss estimate from 2018 to 2026 is presented [61]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The trend of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026 is presented [64]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: The trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 are presented [68]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The trend chart of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 is presented [72]. - **Import - export situation**: The trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import spread from 2019 to 2025 are presented [75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented [81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is presented [84]. - **Downstream demand** - **Highway construction and fixed - asset investment**: The trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are presented [87][89]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: The trends of asphalt concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 are presented [91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 is presented [96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: The construction asphalt and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 are presented [99]. - **Downstream开工情况**: The开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2026 are presented [102][104]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2024 to 2026 is presented, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [108].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply**: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 31.8792%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.31% compared with last week, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment increased by 22.53% compared with last week. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt decreased compared with last week, while the construction rate of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane increased. Overall, the demand is affected by the off - season, and the overall demand fails to meet expectations and remains sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 576.02 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 799.3871 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34.46%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With crude oil prices weakening, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Overall Situation**: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand fails to be boosted, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory is stable. With crude oil prices weakening, the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3026 - 3074 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: The total planned production of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 was 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples decreased by 1.44 percentage points compared with last week. The output and shipment volume of sample enterprises decreased, while the estimated maintenance volume of equipment increased [8]. - **Demand**: The construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt decreased, while the construction rates of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane increased. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt increased by 4.10% compared with last week, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries increased by 34.46%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With crude oil prices weakening, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Other Factors**: On November 11, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Social inventory, factory inventory, and port inventory all continued to decline. The MA20 of the futures price was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased [8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3026 - 3074 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various asphalt futures contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The basis of each contract also changed to varying degrees. For example, the basis of the 01 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 92.31% [15]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Relationship**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent [25][26][28][29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The report shows the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market The report shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the port inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The report shows the price trends of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [53][54][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the production trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social storage, and factory storage) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the export, import, and South Korean asphalt import spread trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [75][76][78][79][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the production trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report shows the downstream demand trends of asphalt, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bond issuance, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales volume, domestic excavator sales volume, roller sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, and the construction rate of various types of asphalt [87][88][89][91][93][95][96][97][99][100][101][102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 11.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.0301%, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30%, unchanged from the previous month [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is weakening, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [7]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 14 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%. All inventories are decreasing. It is neutral [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20. It is bearish [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions. It is bullish [7]. - Expectation: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; crude oil is weakening, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3,222 - 3,266 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [10]. - Main logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of 01 - 06 contracts all decreased to varying degrees, with the decline ranging from - 0.09% to - 0.76% [14]. - Basis: The basis of each contract also changed, with some showing significant fluctuations [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory all decreased, with decreases of - 6.77%, - 3.52%, and - 33.33% respectively [14]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output increased by 0.72% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment increased by 13.98% month - on - month [14]. - Profits: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 2.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit decreased by 13.47% month - on - month [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spreads: The historical trends of spreads between 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown [19][20] - Asphalt - crude oil price trends: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [22][23] - Crude oil cracking spreads: The historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown [25][26][27] - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trends: The historical trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 are presented [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 are presented [35][36] - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The historical trends of coking - asphalt profit spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown [38][40] - Supply - side: - Shipment volume: The historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 are presented [41][42] - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown [43][44] - Output: The historical trends of weekly and monthly output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: The historical trends of Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown [49][51] - Refinery asphalt output: The historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [52][53] - Capacity utilization rate: The historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented [55][56] - Maintenance loss estimate: The historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2025 are shown [57][58] - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [60][62][63] - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented [64][65] - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: The historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 are presented [67][68] - Import and export situation: - Export and import trends: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented [70][71] - South Korean asphalt import spread trend: The historical trends of South Korean asphalt import spreads from 2020 to 2025 are presented [73][74] - Demand - side: - Petroleum coke output: The historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [76][77] - Apparent consumption: The historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 are presented [79][80] - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment trends: The historical trends from 2020 to 2025 are presented [82][83] - New local special bond trends: The historical trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [84] - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: The historical trends from 2020 to 2024 are presented [84] - Downstream machinery demand trends: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are presented [86][88] - Excavator monthly working hours trends: The historical trends from 2020 to 2025 are presented [90] - Asphalt capacity utilization rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate: The historical trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [91][92] - Asphalt capacity utilization rate by use: The historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented [94][95] - Downstream capacity utilization situation: - Capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [96][97][99] - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [101][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still high, with a decrease in production this week but a potential increase in supply pressure next week. The demand is currently below the historical average, and the cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with asphalt 2601 oscillating between 3273 - 3317 [8]. - The positive factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, while the negative factors are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall decline in demand along with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74%. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the开工率 of building asphalt was 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the开工率 of modified asphalt was 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points; the开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. 3.1.2 Basis - On October 27th, the spot price in Shandong was 3340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 45 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [8]. 3.1.4 Disk - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.1.6 Expectation - The refineries have recently reduced production, and the peak season stimulates demand recovery. However, the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory remains stable, and crude oil is strengthening. The cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with asphalt 2601 oscillating between 3273 - 3317 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - It shows the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts, including the current value, previous value, increase or decrease, and increase or decrease rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market 3.3.1 Basis Trend - It presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.3.2 Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price - to - Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [38][39][40]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [68][69]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Situation - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical price difference trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [71][72][76]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical investment trends from 2020 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Newly - Issued Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical issuance trends from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year Growth Rate**: It shows the historical growth rate trends from 2020 to 2024 [85]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical monthly working - hour trends of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][91]. - **Asphalt Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical production capacity utilization rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the 11 - contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3410 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3421 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, the supply will decrease, and the cost support will weaken. The market may undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. Section Summaries 1. Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract rose this week, with an opening price of 3410 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 3421 yuan/ton on Friday, a 0.32% increase [5]. - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 239.8 million tons, a 3.5% month - on - month increase and a 12.7% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The national sample enterprise shipment was 31.36 million tons, a 31.10% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production was 60.7 million tons, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 69.9 million tons, a 2.95% month - on - month increase. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a 1.71 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a 1.69 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a 0.50 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a 12.97% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the short - term support will weaken [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 114.6 million tons, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory was 65.3 million tons, a 4.53% month - on - month decrease. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 million tons, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease. All types of inventories continued to decline [6]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Analysis**: The report presents the Shandong and East China basis trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [10][11]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差**: The 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spread trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown [13][14]. - **沥青原油价格走势**: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [17]. - **原油裂解价差**: The cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown [20][21]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [24]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **各地区市场价走势**: The price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 are shown [27][28]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润**: The profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [30]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: The profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown [33][34]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **出货量**: The weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented [36][37]. - **稀释沥青港口库存**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown [38][39]. - **产量**: The weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [42]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: The price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown [46]. - **开工率**: The weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 is presented [50][51]. - **检修损失量预估**: The estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [54]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **交易所仓单**: The exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - **社会库存和厂内库存**: The social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown [62]. - **厂内库存存货比**: The in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [65]. - **进出口情况**: The export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [67][68][71]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **石油焦产量**: The petroleum coke production trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [74]. - **表观消费量**: The apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [77]. - **下游需求** - **公路建设交通固定资产走势, 新增地方专项债走势, 基础建设投资完成额同比**: The trends of highway construction traffic fixed assets, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented [80][81]. - **下游机械需求走势**: The sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, and the sales volume trends of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented [84][86]. - **沥青开工率** - **重交沥青开工率**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [89]. - **按用途分沥青开工率**: The construction asphalt and modified asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [92]. - **下游开工情况**: The开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [95][97]. - **供需平衡表**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to September 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [100]. 5. Technical Analysis - The price and trading volume trends of the BU main contract from August 25 to September 19, 2025, are presented, along with the moving average trends of different periods (5 - period, 10 - period, 20 - period, 60 - period, 120 - period) of the closing price [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week; the demand side shows that the current demand is lower than the historical average level; the cost side shows that the decline in asphalt processing losses and the increase in the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the rising crude oil, are expected to strengthen the short - term support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3389 - 3433 [8][9][10]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall decline in demand, and the increasing expected recession of the European and American economies. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to strengthen the short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On September 16th, the spot price in Shandong was 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 109 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. The social and in - factory inventories continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase [10]. - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts, weekly inventory, weekly production, and weekly construction rate of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Construction Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly construction rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It shows the historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [86][87]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of the construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: It shows the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [101][102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, in - factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side has increased recently, leading to higher supply pressure, but it is expected to decrease next week. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory continuously decreasing. Crude oil prices are weakening, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3575 - 3613 [7][9]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level of crude oil cost, which provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production is 253900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.2761%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 57200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 57400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The refineries have increased production recently, raising supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, remaining flat month - on - month; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.5509%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25%, remaining flat month - on - month; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 28%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 875.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes below MA20, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position has a net long position, with a decrease in long positions, showing a bullish trend [9]. - **Basis**: On July 23, the spot price in Shandong is 3845 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 251 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a bullish trend [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 131900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - factory inventory is 76100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 21000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.22%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, while the in - factory and port inventories are decreasing, showing a bullish trend [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads are shown [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil prices are presented [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads are shown [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trend of the asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio is presented [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: The historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price is presented [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit is presented [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread is presented [40][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly shipment volume is presented [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory is presented [46][47]. - **Output**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output are presented [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output are presented [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt output is presented [56][57]. - **Operating Rate**: The historical trend of weekly operating rate is presented [59][60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of estimated maintenance loss volume is presented [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) are presented [64][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) are presented [68][69]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio is presented [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt are presented [74][75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of petroleum coke output is presented [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of apparent consumption is presented [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year are presented [86][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, and domestic excavator sales are presented [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is presented [95][96]. - **Operating Rate by Use**: The historical trends of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other operating rates are presented [98]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt operating rates are presented [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025 is presented, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and output [104][105].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as domestic asphalt planned production in July 2025 is 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The sample capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, which may further increase supply pressure next week [7]. - Demand is lower than the historical average. The opening rates of various types of asphalt and related products are mostly below the historical average, with some showing a decline or little change [7]. - The cost support is weakening in the short term. The daily asphalt processing profit has decreased by 11.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit has decreased by 24.69% month - on - month. Crude oil prices are weakening [8]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3598 - 3648 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in July 2025 is 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The sample capacity utilization rate is 33.9166%, a month - on - month increase of 0.779 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 566,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 582,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. Refineries have increased production, increasing supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The opening rates of various types of asphalt and related products are mostly below the historical average. For example, the heavy - traffic asphalt opening rate is 32.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt opening rate is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt opening rate is 14.383%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt opening rate is 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point; and the waterproofing membrane opening rate is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 460.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 838.2543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.69%. Crude oil prices are weakening, and short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3598 - 3648 [9]. - **Other Factors**: There are positive factors such as relatively high crude oil cost providing some support, and negative factors such as insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13] 2. Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price and Spread Analysis**: It includes the analysis of the price trends of different contracts (such as 01 - 12 contracts), the basis trends of Shandong and East China regions, the spread trends between main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil (Brent, WTI), the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [17][20][25] - **Inventory Analysis**: Social inventory is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%; factory inventory is 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%; and port diluted asphalt inventory is 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.75%. Social inventory is decreasing, while factory and port inventories are increasing [10] 3. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Analyzes the profit trends of asphalt and the spread between coking and asphalt profits [39][42] - **Supply - side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, port diluted asphalt inventory, production volume (weekly and monthly), Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, opening rate, and estimated maintenance loss [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory [65][69][72] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Analyzes the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread of Korean asphalt [75][78][80] - **Demand - side Analysis**: Considers factors such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt opening rate (heavy - traffic, classified by use), and downstream opening conditions [81][84][87] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand from January 2024 to July 2025 [105]