交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 2、基差: 08月27日，山东现货价3520元/吨，10合约基差为49元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为129.2万吨，环比减少3.79%，厂内库存为71.6万吨，环比增加0.70%，港口稀释 沥青库存为库存为15万吨，环比减少21.05%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口 偏多。 库存持续去库。 3 4、盘面: MA20向下，10合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，多减。 偏多。 6、预期: 炼厂近期排产有所减产，降低供应压力。旺季刺激需求恢复整体需求不及预期且低迷；库存 持续去库；原油走弱，成本支 ...

8月28日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，沥青期货主力合约报收于3517.00元/吨，震荡走高 0.92%。 消息面上，8月28日，上期所石油沥青期货仓库仓单29790吨，环比上个交易日持平；石油沥青期货厂库 仓单41710吨，环比上个交易日持平。 供应端，建信期货分析称，河北鑫海月底计划增产沥青，但由于镇海炼化或将阶段性停产沥青，加之山 东地区的胜星石化等部分地方炼厂可能转产渣油，预计沥青装置开工率下降。 需求上，瑞达期货（002961）指出，其中华北地区因受降雨影响终端需求不佳，而华东区及以南下游因 山东高速（600350）公路施工需求好转，华北、华东以及华北地区市价下跌，华南小幅上涨。 展望后市，冠通期货表示，本周南方主营炼厂开工负荷较低，华东降雨减少，但北方地区降雨较多，另 外，资金端制约，市场谨慎，影响沥青需求。原油期价冲高回落，沥青成本端支撑走弱，供需双弱下， 近期沥青期货震荡运行。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注后续服务消费政策 【市场资讯】1）商务部将于 9 月出台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。2）统计局： 1—7 月 份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 40203.5 亿元，同比下降 1.7%。3）贝森特呼吁美 联储内部审查，还称肯定会在秋季知晓特朗普选择的美联储主席。威廉姆斯：政策仍适度 紧缩，通胀正逐步回落。每次会议都绝对是"实时"的。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，商务部表示将于 9 月推出若干扩大服务消费的政策措施。我们此 前已分析指出，当前支撑消费的以旧换新相关商品增速正逐步回落，后续服务消费有望成 为重点发力领域，需重点关注政策力度及支持方向。随着相关政策逐步落地，消费增速有 望获得边际支撑。此外，工业企业利润同比仍为负增长，尽管降幅略有收窄，但国内经济 的整体矛盾尚未发生根本性转变。海外市场方面，美联储主席鲍威尔的最新政策表态被市 场普遍解读为偏向鸽派，即将公布的就业数据及物价指数，将成为判断政策转向时点的核 心观测指标。 人民币汇率：变盘在即？ 【行情回顾】上前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1622，较上一交易日下跌 1 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1500。人民币 ...

2025 年 8 月 28 日 银河能化-20250828 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-08-28） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2510 合约 64.15 涨 0.90 美元/桶，环比+1.42%；Brent2510 合约 68.05 涨 0.83 美元/桶，环比+1.23%。SC2510 合约跌 11.3 至 486.4 元/桶，夜盘跌 4.9 至 481.5 元/ 桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.55 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 白宫一位高级官员称，总统特朗普周三主持了一场关于加沙战争的政策会议，英国前首相 布莱尔和特朗普前中东特使库什纳参会，讨论内容包括扩大食品援助输送、人质危机、战 后计划等。这位官员称这次会议"仅仅是一场政策会议"，是特朗普及其团队经常召开的那 种会议。 克里姆林宫赞扬美国为实现乌克兰和平所做的努力，称本月在阿拉斯加举行的美俄峰会 " 既有意义又有必要"。但克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫告诉记者，莫斯科对欧洲关于为基辅 提供安全保障的提议持否定态度。他重申了俄罗斯的一贯立场，即北约国家不应向乌克兰 部署军队。 EIA 数据显示，截止 8 月 22 日当周，包括战略储备在内 ...

隔夜国际油价下跌,SC10合约日内跌3.3%。8月27日起美国因印度购买俄油而对其加征的25%关税正式实施，据悉 印度炼厂10月后对俄油的采购量自上半年的180万桶/天下调至140-160万桶/天。俄油相关的供应风险依然存在，但 布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价该因素的利多影响,在地缘风险进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 油价大幅回调后燃油系期货亦承压回落。截至7月底,新加坡船燃销量同比下滑1.7%,中国保税船燃加注需求同比 降1%，但同时国内炼厂生产船燃积极性亦低迷,截至7月供应同比下降19%。新加坡陆上燃料油库存、富查伊拉燃料 油库存环比均下降,库存压力呈现缓解态势。基本面整体较此前影响偏利多。因俄罗斯、伊朗仍陷于地缘冲突，高 硫资源受地缘溢价支撑跌幅相对较克制,FU裂解仍有支撑。 【沥青】 | 11/11/2 国家期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月27日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and this trend may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, with varying trends in different types of asphalt and related product开工率 [8]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase from the previous period, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is slightly positive, the basis is neutral, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the market trend is neutral, the main position is slightly positive. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 32.838%, a 2.40 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a 6.80% decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 648,000 tons, an 11.15% increase. Next week, supply pressure may be further reduced [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.7%, a 0.07 - percentage - point decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.9855%, a 0.11 - percentage - point decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 28.33%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30.6%, a 0.90 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [9]. - **Basis**: On August 26, the Shandong spot price is 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.292 million tons, a 3.79% decrease; the in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a 0.70% increase; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 15,000 tons, a 21.05% decrease [9]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries have reduced production, supply pressure is alleviated, demand recovery is less than expected, inventory is decreasing, and crude oil cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base Difference Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt base differences from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts display the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The chart shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The chart shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [48][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The chart shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The chart shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 [72][73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [77][76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 - 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: Charts show the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory data [104][105].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/08/26 | -105.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/25 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/21 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/20 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/08/26 2025/08/25 2025/08/22 2025/08/21 2025/08/20 130 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.838%，环比减少2.40个百分点，全 国样本企业出货23.73万吨，环比减少4.50%,样本企业产量为54.8万吨，环比减少6.80%,样 本企业装置检修量预估为64.8万吨，环比增加11.15%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下 周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.7%，环比减少0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

l永 疯安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/26 | | 指标 | 7/25 | 8/15 | 8/21 | 8/22 | 8/25 | 日度变化 | 間度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3615 | 3461 | 3465 | 3483 | 3512 | 29 | 51 | | | BU06 | 3421 | 3318 | 3342 | 3360 | 3372 | 12 | 54 | | | BU09 | 3615 | 3497 | 3496 | 3520 | 3545 | ટર | 48 | | | BU12 | 3484 | 3370 | 3373 | 3400 | 3432 | 32 | 62 | | 播 1 | BU03 | 3430 | 3322 | 3340 | 3362 | 3394 | 32 | 72 | | | 成交量 | 322134 | 214163 | 194917 | 210728 | 257555 | 46827 | 43392 | | | 持仓量 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.838%，环比减少2.40个百分点，全 国样本企业出货23.73万吨，环比减少4.50%,样本企业产量为54.8万吨，环比减少6.80%,样 本企业装置检修量预估为64.8万吨，环比增加11.15%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下 周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.7%，环比减少0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...