Core Points - President Trump may decide on the next Federal Reserve Chair by the end of this year [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to submit a list of "excellent candidates" to Trump after Thanksgiving, narrowing it down to five individuals [1] - Trump criticized current Fed Chair Powell for not significantly lowering interest rates, claiming it hinders economic growth [1] Candidate Summary - The narrowed list of candidates includes: - Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council - Kevin Warsh, former Fed Governor - Lael Brainard, current Fed Governor - Randal Quarles, Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed - Rick Reed, executive at BlackRock [1] Current Fed Chair Situation - Powell's term ends in May 2026, and he has repeatedly rejected Trump's calls for interest rate cuts [1] - Trump has previously threatened to "fire" Powell, which has negatively impacted the markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump may decide on the next Federal Reserve Chairman by the end of this year, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy leadership [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to present a shortlist of "excellent candidates" to Trump after Thanksgiving, narrowing it down to five individuals [1] - The candidates include NEC Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, current Fed Governor Waller, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [1] Group 2: Criticism of Current Fed Chairman - Trump reiterated his belief that current Fed Chairman Powell has not significantly lowered interest rates, which he claims hinders economic growth, labeling Powell as "not smart at all" [1] - Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and he has previously rejected Trump's calls for rate cuts, leading to criticism from the President [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a specific company, highlighting significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives taken to enhance market position [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 15% year-over-year, reaching $2.5 billion in the last quarter [1] - Net income rose to $300 million, reflecting a 10% increase compared to the previous year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a new product line aimed at expanding its market share in the technology sector [1] - Investments in research and development have increased by 20%, indicating a commitment to innovation and long-term growth [1] Market Position - The company has gained a competitive edge, now holding a 25% market share in its primary industry [1] - Partnerships with key industry players have been established to enhance distribution channels and customer reach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decision regarding the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take several months, as stated by the Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump requires several months to decide on Powell's successor, whose term ends in May next year [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is conducting a comprehensive selection process and interviewing several outstanding candidates [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Hassett commented that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was reliable [1] - Powell indicated that changes in the baseline outlook and risk landscape may necessitate adjustments to policy stance [1] - Hassett noted that the annualized inflation rate over the past six months was 1.9%, indicating a significant decline in inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials indicate a cooling of expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with officials emphasizing the need for more economic data before making decisions [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed the need to review more economic data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly focusing on inflation and employment metrics [1][4]. - Goolsbee highlighted that the impact of tariff policies on prices may not be as straightforward as previously thought, indicating potential structural changes in the economy [4][6]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the labor market is close to full employment, suggesting that the Fed can afford to avoid hasty policy adjustments [6]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Wall Street traders have increasingly bet on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with OIS contracts fully pricing in this expectation [7]. - Some market participants speculate on the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut, driven by recent CPI data and comments from various financial institutions [8]. - Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have differing views on the likelihood of a 25 versus 50 basis point cut, reflecting uncertainty in market expectations [8][9]. Group 3: Political Context - President Trump indicated he may announce the next Fed chairperson sooner than expected, narrowing down candidates to 3-4 individuals [10]. - Trump's comments reflect his ongoing pressure on the current Fed chair, Powell, regarding interest rates and their impact on the economy [10].

关键时刻，美联储官员的最新讲话释放重磅信号。 北京时间8月14日凌晨，多位美联储官员发表讲话，似乎有意给持续升温的降息预期降温。其中， 美国芝 加哥联储主席 （ 2025年FOMC票委 ） 古尔斯比表示，他希望在决定是否降息之前，先审查更多经济数 据。美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（2027年FOMC票委）表示，如果劳动力市场保持稳固，他仍然认 为2025年降息一次是合适的。 目前，华尔街交易员对美联储降息的押注愈发激进。与美联储会期挂钩的隔夜指数互换(OIS)合约已经完 全消化了9月降息25个基点的预期。甚至有机构认为，不排除一次降息50个基点的可能性。 美联储官员最新讲话 美东时间8月13日，古尔斯比表示，美联储正在努力确定关税是否会导致暂时或持续的通货膨胀，这是决 定何时降息的关键因素。 古尔斯比认为，（非农）数据修订不应当造成争议性。 古尔斯比称："'关税政策对价格的影响是一次性的'这种想法让我感到紧张不安。" 古尔斯比表示，他希望在决定是否降息之前，先审查更多经济数据，包括本周公布的批发价格数据和下个 月更广泛的通胀指标。 关于最新披露的非农就业数据，古尔斯比警告不要过度解读就业增长放缓，他认为这可能 ...

这几个月来，围绕特朗普和鲍威尔之间的争吵一直没有停止。作为在特朗普第一任期被任命的美联储主席，鲍威尔拒绝特朗普大幅降息的要求而 遭到后者的严厉批评和大肆攻击，特朗普认为，鲍威尔让美国损失了"一大笔钱"，继续要求美联储将利率下调"一个点"。 按道理说，美国总统是有权力解雇美联储主席的。在一百多年前美国国会成立美联储的时候就有规定，美联储理事和主席只能"因正当理由"才能 被解职，避免美联储被政治压力而左右。 就目前的情况而言，特朗普及其团队并没有明确的证据证明有正当的理由去解雇鲍威尔。因此，他们开始拿美联储总部25亿美元的翻新工程找茬 说事，表示鲍威尔在处理这个工程上有不当的行为。参议院银行委员会民主党领袖伊丽莎白·沃伦讽刺道："特朗普最初试图胁迫鲍威尔的尝试失 败后，他和国会共和党人突然决定调查美联储在大楼翻修上的支出。" 虽然也有很多共和党人认为解雇鲍威尔是一个正确的选择，但是特朗普还是难免受到共和党内部的阻力，毕竟鲍威尔本人也是一个共和党人。一 些国会共和党人公开表示，解雇鲍威尔将是一个错误。如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔，美联储可能会失去对政治影响的独立性，并给美国经济的基础注 入不确定性。 特朗普和鲍威尔（右） ...

特朗普表示，他很可能会先任命一位临时美联储理事，随后再任命正式人选。 这句话有多重含义： 第三，特朗普这样做有一个好处，让市场有一个缓慢接受的过程，就跟现在谈到"关税"市场已经麻木一 样。特朗普非常懂得怎么利用"人事传闻"去测试市场反应，就像试探温度一样。 第一，宣布下任美联储主席的时机可能会延迟，因为特朗普说的是"临时理事"，即先干到"2026年1 月"，即前美联储理事库格勒的任期结束时（因为这个位置就是库格勒腾出来的）。 第四，过去市场对下任美联储主席有两个热门人选，两个"凯文"。 第二，特朗普的话也不能"全信"。如果这位"临时理事"干得好，可能会"转正"并被提名为下任美联储主 席。如果这个人干的不好，任期到了换人，对特朗普来说多了一份选择。从现在开始到明年1月，这 位"临时理事"需要推动美联储降息。特朗普不是为了填空，而是为了悄悄在棋盘上放一个"潜力王炸"。 * 凯文·哈塞特：长期经济顾问，忠诚可靠——最容易获得参议院通过——但如果提名哈塞特很容易被市 场误以为是"下任联储主席"，很可能令特朗普失去选择权。 *凯文·沃什：曾是他首选之一，态度鹰派转鸽了，最近力挺降息——昨晚过后，市场对沃什成下任美联 储 ...

格隆汇8月7日｜美国财长贝森特：两天前特朗普问我关于美联储新任主席的事，我说更倾向于财政部。 我们已经开始了美联储主席的面试流程。美国劳工统计局有责任寻找收集数据的方法。新任劳工统计局 局长能力将会很强。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

特朗普在5日称可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，并表示美联储理事的人选决定将于本周末做出。他在接 受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，已将潜在的未来美联储主席范围缩小到四名候选 人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。（央视记者 曹健） 相关阅读 当地时间8月6日，美国总统特朗普在谈及美联储主席人选时称，已启动面谈程序，可能只剩下了三位候 选人。 特朗普表示，前美联储理事凯文·沃什和国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特非常好。 美联储主席鲍威尔任期将于2026年5月结束，特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。对于鲍威尔"继任者"人选， 此前，前美联储理事凯文·沃什、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、财政部长贝森特、美联储理事 克里斯托弗·沃勒都在特朗普的考虑范围内。 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒将辞去美联储理事的职位，于本月8日正式卸任。库格 勒的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得美国总统特朗普可提前几个月对美联储董事会进行 新一轮人事任命。 ...