RT Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano)I sat down with @jvisserlabs to talk about bitcoin coming to 401k’s, the lack of volatility, why Wall Street is talking about ETH & stablecoins, what is going on at the Fed, how AI & GPT-5 will impact the economy, and how you can make more money.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/REooIZiJOZSpotify: https://t.co/yQdDrQgMaMApple: https://t.co/jHEYQhuLR2TIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:56 - Impact of bitcoin coming to 401k’s6:26 - Bitcoin’s current lack of volatility10:32 - Thinking throug ...

Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin's potential inclusion in 401k plans is being discussed [1] - The perceived lack of volatility in Bitcoin is a topic of interest [1] - Wall Street is actively discussing Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins [1] Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve's actions are under scrutiny [1] - The potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and GPT-5 on the economy is being considered [1] Financial Advice - Strategies for increasing personal income are being explored [1]

Cryptocurrency & Investment - Bitcoin's integration into 401k plans is discussed [1] - The report addresses Bitcoin's current low volatility [1] - Ethereum and stablecoins are being analyzed by Wall Street [1] Technology & Economy - The potential economic impact of AI and GPT-5 is explored [1] - Individual productivity gains are examined for their impact [1] Monetary Policy - The report provides insights into the actions of the Federal Reserve (The Fed) [1]

IPO Market Dynamics - Investor appetite for IPOs is picking up, with companies like Figma, Circle, Chime, and Firefly Aerospace experiencing significant gains on their first trading days [1] - The IPO market is experiencing pent-up demand and asymmetric speculation, with abundant capital seeking high-return, low-risk opportunities [2] - Speculative excess is evident in the market, potentially indicating a frothy environment with red flags [3][4] - Post-IPO volatility can reach 100% to 250%, attracting traders seeking to double their investment [5] IPO Pricing and Insider Advantage - Most individuals cannot participate in IPOs directly, focusing on post-IPO trading, particularly in options markets [6] - Underwriters may intentionally underprice IPOs, benefiting investment banks and insiders who hold restricted stock with a typical 6-month lockup period [8] - Underpricing IPOs creates positive PR and allows insiders to benefit from an initial price surge [9] - A small percentage of outstanding shares traded at a high price can significantly inflate the company's market capitalization [10] Retail Investor Access to Private Markets - There's a push to allow retail investors access to private equity, venture capital, and private credit through 401(k)s, traditionally limited to accredited investors [12] - Advocates argue for self-directed investment choices in 401(k)s, allowing individuals to invest in a wider range of assets [13][14] - Opening private markets to retail investors democratizes the process but also introduces new levels of risk due to less stringent disclosure rules compared to public companies [15] - Opening up private markets is expected to increase market efficiency and foster industry growth, despite potential risks [16][17] Private Equity Investment - The argument that private equity outperforms public markets long-term is primarily due to the lack of day-to-day liquidity, rather than inherent differences in the underlying business [19] - The extended duration of private equity funds (e.g., 7 years) reduces the observed volatility in their P&L, potentially masking the true risk [21]

Cryptocurrency & Investment - The White House is rumored to allow individuals to buy Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in their 401k retirement accounts [1] - US retirement accounts hold an estimated $43 trillion, including about $9 trillion in defined contribution plans like 401ks [1] - The entire crypto industry's market cap is less than $4 trillion [1] - Over the last 50 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has fallen by over 83% [1] - The S&P 500 has increased by over 150 times even after accounting for inflation [1] - The ishares 20 plus year Treasury bond ETF has lost nearly 50% of its value in the last 5 years [1] Student Loans & Education - One example shows a $40,922 student loan potentially requiring a repayment of $118,355.59, with $77,383.59 attributed to financing costs at a 13.500% fixed interest rate [1] AI & Technology - Chat GPT usage has decreased since school got out [2][3][5]

Regulatory Environment - Executive Order signed, potentially bringing crypto to 401k plans [1] Cryptocurrency & Retirement - Retirement is now "onchain," suggesting integration of blockchain technology [1] - Crypto integration viewed as a "huge move" and a "big win" for retirement savings [1]

Market Trend & Investment Opportunity - President Trump is expected to sign an executive order allowing private and crypto assets into 401(k)s, potentially opening an $8 trillion market to private equity [1][7] - Private equity firms could gain access to a significant portion of the 401(k) market, potentially reaching 5%, or $400 billion [7] Risk Assessment & Concerns - Investing in private markets is significantly more complex than investing in public stock mutual funds, with increased risks related to liquidity and opacity [2][3] - Retail investors may not fully understand the illiquidity of private market assets, which are long-tailed and cannot be easily sold [9][10] - Diversification benefits in private markets may be limited during economic downturns, as private asset valuations may lag behind public market declines [11][12] - There are concerns about high and potentially hidden fees associated with private equity funds in 401(k)s, which could significantly exceed those of traditional index funds (100 basis points vs 3 basis points) [8][13] - The suitability of illiquid private investments for older investors and the challenges of inheriting such assets are questioned, especially regarding access to liquidity when needed [14][15] Alternative Investment Options - Individual investors already have access to alternative investments through platforms connecting asset managers to the RAIA community, albeit typically for larger allocations (e g, $500 thousand) [5] - Investors can gain exposure to private capital and credit through publicly traded vehicles like BDCs (Business Development Companies) such as ARIES and Six Street Lending [6][7] Investor Choice & Considerations - While offering investment choice is generally positive, the complexity and risks of private markets raise concerns about whether individual investors are adequately equipped to make informed decisions [2][4] - The potential for outperforming the S&P 500 through private equity investments in 401(k)s is questioned, with emphasis on the need for diversification and careful allocation (e g, 5%-10% max exposure) [8][9]

Market Trends & Tariffs Impact - The market has largely ignored tariffs for the past 3 months, but concerns are rising about their potential impact on corporate profits [1] - Fresh tariffs from the Trump administration have gone into effect, with rates ranging from 50% on goods from Brazil to 35% for Switzerland and 25% for India [1] - The market's upward movement is attributed to concentration in software companies and companies like Nvidia seeking exemptions [1] - The AI trade is driving a lot of market enthusiasm, making it hard to find bears in the tech sector [2] Company Performance & Strategies - Airbnb's Q2 earnings beat estimates with revenue up 13% and net income up 16%, but Q3 guidance is weaker due to tariffs and investments [3] - Airbnb is investing $200 million in new services and experiences, impacting profit margins [3] - Apple CEO Tim Cook presented President Trump with a gift and pledged to spend $100 billion more on US companies and suppliers over the next four years [1] - Apple warned that tariffs would negatively impact profits by $110 million [2][3] Economic Outlook & Investment Strategies - One perspective suggests tariffs are beneficial for the US economy in the long run by reducing the budget deficit and increasing private investment, potentially raising economic growth by 2% [1][2] - Another perspective views tariffs as unsustainable and believes the market has merely adjusted expectations from catastrophic levels to still-high levels [1] - The market is seen as a "seven stock market" concentrated in the MAG seven [1] - There's a debate on whether to allow private equity, real estate, and crypto in 401ks, raising concerns about increased risk in retirement savings [11][12]

Trump: You can now put crypto in your 401kMe in 50 years 👇 https://t.co/FkGCgbWSfa ...

Early 401k Withdrawal Trends & Impacts - 5% of participants took withdrawals this year, indicating potential financial pressures [4] - One in three workers tend to cash out their entire 401k balance when they change jobs [7] - Cashing out happens more with people whose income can be fluctuating, such as gig economy workers and hourly workers [8] Reasons for Early Withdrawal - Top two reasons for early withdrawals are avoiding eviction and paying for medical expenses [2] - People need cash and liquidity due to emergencies [2] Downsides of Early Withdrawal - A 10% penalty is applied on the surface [1] - Taxes must be paid on the money that was previously tax-sheltered [4] - Foregone investment gains over many decades of long-term compounding significantly impact retirement wealth [4] Recommendations - Emphasize the need for an emergency reserve to protect long-term savings [3] - Workers facing a cash crunch should consider financial planning [9] - Having an emergency savings of $2,000 can significantly reduce the likelihood of cashing out and improve savings behaviors [9] - Rebuilding a 401k after withdrawal requires saving and maximizing employer match [11] Positive Trends - Eight out of 10 workers are saving towards their retirement [6] - Workers are saving at the highest rate seen, which is 12% [6]