Gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) swung downward Wednesday, but 2025 will go down as one of the best years for the metals in decades. Gold futures fell to about $4,350 per troy ounce, while silver futures tumbled nearly 8% after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements on precious metal contracts for a second time in a week, forcing out leveraged positions. Even with the late-year volatility, gold has surged around 66%, while silver has soared nearly 150% this year, their strongest annual ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant rally driven by geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and strong industrial demand, particularly for silver and platinum [2][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures have increased approximately 1.6%, trading above the $4,500 level, while silver has surged over 3% due to tight physical markets and robust industrial demand [1] - Platinum prices are also supported by ongoing supply constraints, trading near the upper end of its recent range [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver is facing its fifth consecutive year of supply deficits, with demand consistently outpacing supply, driven by industrial applications such as solar panels, electronics, and AI data centers [5] - Platinum production has dropped to multi-year lows, contributing to tight market conditions, with automotive use remaining a primary demand driver alongside industrial and jewelry demand [5] Group 3: Economic Influences - Ongoing global instability, including conflicts and trade frictions, is prompting investors to seek traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3] - The decline in the U.S. dollar's value is making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus increasing international demand [4] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar and have been purchasing gold at record rates, contributing to substantial investment inflows into gold and silver ETFs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tension exists between the Federal Reserve's goals of controlling inflation and supporting the job market, leading to a cautious approach in interest rate decisions as inflation remains high and the job market shows signs of weakness [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% as expected, but there were dissenting opinions within the committee, indicating differing views on the necessity of further cuts [2][4] - The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 1.75 percentage points since September 2024, with current rates in the target range of 3.25% to 3.5%, still above pre-pandemic levels [5][19] - The Fed is expected to pause further cuts in January, with forecasts suggesting only one additional cut next year, contrasting with some analysts predicting two cuts [6][7] Economic Indicators - The natural rate of interest is believed to be closer to pre-pandemic levels, influenced by demographic trends and economic growth rates [9][20] - The housing market continues to weaken despite rate cuts, indicating potential need for further cuts to support this sector [10] - The lack of recent GDP data creates uncertainty in assessing the overall economic picture, with expectations for updates once Q3 data is available [11][12] Inflation and Tariff Policies - Factors that could lead to more aggressive rate cuts include a significant downturn in the AI sector, which has been a major contributor to GDP growth [12] - Tariff policies present a risk for inflation; if businesses pass on tariff costs to consumers, it could increase inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed's monetary policy [13][14] Neutral Interest Rate - The neutral interest rate is crucial for balancing full employment and inflation at the Fed's 2% target, with current rates slightly above the estimated neutral level of around 3% [15][19] - The neutral rate has trended down over decades, influenced by demographic changes and economic growth, suggesting that the Fed's long-term rate setting will align with this metric [21][22]

The AI Boom Is Absorbing Everything https://t.co/5uty3gODib ...

From time to time I find little-known stocks that look like bargains and test how strong they look as investments by comparing them to better-known names in the same segment.The author has an honours degree in economics and politics with a focus on economic development. With 36 years of experience in executive management he has extensive knowledge of insurance/reinsurance, Global and Asia Pacific markets, climate change and ESG. He invests in his personal capacity.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, op ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the identification of lesser-known stocks that appear undervalued and compares them to more established companies within the same sector [1]. Group 1 - The author possesses an honors degree in economics and politics, focusing on economic development, and has 36 years of executive management experience, particularly in insurance/reinsurance and global markets [1]. - The analysis aims to uncover potential investment opportunities by evaluating the strength of these lesser-known stocks against well-known names in the same segment [1].

Core Insights - The article reviews the Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY), managed by investor Tom Lee and his Fundstrat team, highlighting its performance since inception [1]. Group 1 - The GRNY ETF is designed to capitalize on large-cap stocks in the US market [1]. - The review indicates that the ETF has been trading for a certain period, suggesting ongoing market interest [1].

The AI Boom Moves Into the Next Stage https://t.co/jdeym3BJYF ...

Core Insights - Sandisk has joined the S&P 500 index, marking a significant milestone for the company as its shares have surged due to increased demand driven by the AI boom [1][2][6] Company Performance - Sandisk's stock price increased nearly 11% on the day of its S&P 500 inclusion before settling back, reflecting strong market interest [2] - The company's shares have risen over 500% since being spun off from Western Digital in February, with a current market capitalization exceeding $31 billion [2][6] Market Context - The inclusion in the S&P 500 is generally viewed positively by investors, often leading to a short-term boost in share prices [3][4] - The vacancy in the S&P 500 was created by Omnicom Group's acquisition of Interpublic Group, highlighting ongoing market consolidation trends [4][10]

Group 1 - Oddball funds, which are not tied to traditional stock and bond markets, offer high diversification potential but may also create investor anxiety due to their idiosyncratic nature [1] - UBS has lowered the minimum asset threshold for its Consolidated Advisory Program and alternative investments-dedicated CAP Select offering, expanding eligibility for alternative-friendly advisory programs [2] - Financial advisors are increasingly utilizing model portfolios for their scalability in portfolio management, whether built in-house or outsourced [3] Group 2 - The AI boom has led to a decline in the quality of investments as investors chase high returns, raising concerns about the neglect of balance sheets [4] - The anticipated influx of new cryptocurrency-focused ETFs due to eased US regulations is expected to create more accessible and liquid investment options in the crypto space [5] - Over 1,300 active ETFs have launched in 2024, with lower fees and greater tax efficiency being key advantages over traditional mutual funds [6] Group 3 - BlackRock's private credit CLO has failed to meet performance tests, leading to management fee waivers and a need for corrective measures to protect safer securities [7] - Clarion Partners Real Estate Income Fund is transitioning to an interval fund structure to enhance liquidity for shareholders, marking a significant change under the Investment Company Act of 1940 [8] - The misfire at Blue Owl highlights the importance of proration in semiliquid funds, allowing managers to handle less liquid assets without facing large redemption pressures [9] Group 4 - The IMF has raised concerns regarding the rapid growth of private credit investments and the emergence of new private rating agencies, which could impact the quality of investment-grade classifications [10] - The growth of retail funds is creating new risks for general partners (GPs), necessitating preparations for potential industry-wide effects such as shifting allocations and liquidity stress [11]