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Assured Guaranty(AGO) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-28 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted operating income per share for 2024 was $7.1, down from $10.78 in 2023, reflecting a decrease in overall profitability [29] - Adjusted operating income for Q4 2024 was $66 million or $1.27 per share, compared to $338 million or $5.75 per share in Q4 2023, primarily due to non-recurring tax benefits in the prior year [21][22] - Total insured municipal par sold reached $24 billion in 2024, the highest since 2010, with a 14-year high for annual new issue insured par [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Public Finance PVP reached $270 million in 2024, significantly contributing to the overall PVP of over $400 million across all business lines [12][13] - Non-U.S. Public Finance contributed $67 million of PBP in 2024, with strong performance in secondary market guarantees and liquidity guarantees [18] - Global structured finance generated $65 million of PVP, focusing on insurance securitizations and bank balance sheet relief [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bond insurance industry maintained an annual penetration rate of 8.3% of par issued, marking the fourth consecutive year above 8% [13] - The U.S. Municipal bond market started 2025 with strong new issue volume, with projections suggesting it may rival or exceed 2024's record volume [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company merged its two primary insurance subsidiaries to create a more efficient capital structure and a larger insurer with a diversified portfolio [9] - Geographic expansion efforts included opening offices in Australia and Singapore, with a focus on opportunities in Continental Europe and Asia [8][20] - The company aims to diversify earnings through its asset management segment and improve investment results via alternative investments, which have generated an annualized return of approximately 13% [30][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the UK water sector, particularly regarding Thames Water, citing a positive macroeconomic background and potential for improved financials [36][38] - The company remains committed to resolving its Puerto Rico exposure, with ongoing mediation efforts and a strong legal position affirmed by the courts [10][86] - Management anticipates continued growth in new business production and a strong performance in the municipal bond market for 2025 [10][30] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 6.2 million shares for $502 million in 2024, representing 11% of shares outstanding as of December 31, 2023 [32][33] - A pre-tax gain of approximately $103 million from litigation with Lehman Brothers International Europe will be recognized in Q1 2025 [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent developments on Thames Water and Southern Water - Management highlighted the UK government's stance against nationalization and positive regulatory developments for Thames Water, expressing optimism for future outcomes [36][38] Question: Impact of California wildfires on exposure - Management confirmed no significant exposure to California wildfires, with all debt service payments being met [48] Question: Non-U.S. structured finance par written this quarter - Management noted strong performance in Australia and other regions, with a focus on shorter-dated structured finance transactions [49][51] Question: Return on equity expectations - Management indicated that return on equity is influenced by the mix of business, with structured finance and international infrastructure yielding higher returns [61][62] Question: Interest rates and AOCI impact - Management acknowledged that interest rates fluctuate, affecting unrealized gains and losses, but confirmed the positive impact of the Lehman Brothers gain on per-share earnings [70][71] Question: Exposure in the D.C. market - Management stated minimal exposure in the D.C. market and expressed no significant concerns regarding potential disruptions [78][79] Question: Financial troubles in healthcare facilities - Management explained that healthcare facilities face operational risks, including high labor costs, but emphasized their proactive management approach [81][82] Question: Political changes and PREPA resolution - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the new political landscape's potential to facilitate a resolution for PREPA, while maintaining a strong legal position [86][87]