Banking System Reserves - US banking system's reserves declined for the second consecutive week [1] - Reserves fell below $3 trillion [1] Central Bank Policy - The decline occurs as the central bank is set to determine its balance sheet path [1]

October 22, 2025 08:59 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Ahead of the October FOMC: Our Monetary Forecasts We participate in the NY Fed's Survey of Market Expectations, which collects expectations about monetary policy and the economy before each FOMC meeting. This note provides a snapshot of our responses to the survey. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | October 22, 2025 08:59 PM GMT | | | | Federal Reserve Monitor North America | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | | Michael T Gapen | | ...

US Banking System Reserves - US banking system's reserves sank below $3 trillion [1] Quantitative Tightening - Quantitative tightening could stop in the coming months [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed's decision to keep shrinking its balance sheet is influenced by the US banking system's reserves [1]

In Module 2.1 of Investing 101, we introduce the three core financial statements — the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. You’ll learn what each reveals about a company’s performance, why they matter to long-term investors, and how they work together to paint a complete picture of a business’s financial health. Keep learning at GuruFocus.com/GuruUniversity ...

Bitcoin managed to rise from $18,000 to $126,000 as the Fed reduced its balance sheet.What do you think happens now that it's ending?🟢🟢🟢🟢MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes):Powell: The Fed could end QT in the coming months#MacroEdge ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve's minutes from its September 16th to 17th meeting revealed that almost all participants supported a 0.25% (quarter point) cut at the meeting [1] - A few participants believed there was merit in keeping the federal funds rate unchanged [2] - Most participants judged that it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the course of the year [5] - Financial conditions suggested monetary policy may not be particularly restrictive, suggesting a cautious path ahead [5] Economic Outlook & Concerns - Hawks noted progress towards the Fed's 2% inflation target had stalled, raising the risks of inflation expectations rising [3] - Officials indicated their outlooks for the labor market were uncertain and they viewed downside risks to employment as having increased [4] - Indicators cited included low hiring and firing rates, concentrated job gains in a small number of sectors, and increases in unemployment for groups traditionally sensitive to a weakening economy [4] - Economists are pointing to inflation figures and suggesting the worst of the tariff passed through into inflation and prices is yet to come [7] - Others are still concerned about the weakening of the labor market and the idea that that suggests a weakening of the economy ahead [7] Balance Sheet Considerations - Market participants are suggesting that reserves are at the borderline for whether or not there's enough available [10] - A 0.01% (one basis point) jump in the effective Fed funds rate recently was seen by some as a sign that this is coming [10] - Participants felt reserves continued to appear abundant, and no changes were suggested [5][11]

Key dates this week 🗓️Oct 8 ➡️ 🇺🇸 FOMC MinutesOct 9 ➡️ 🇺🇸 Fed’s Balance SheetOct 10 ➡️ 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer SentimentWhich dates are you watching? 👀 ...

Core Insights - The discussion focuses on investment strategies in gold and silver mining stocks, emphasizing the importance of free cash flow and the elasticity of mining stocks in relation to gold prices [3][4][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - In a bull market, investors should seek mining stocks with high elasticity, meaning that when gold prices rise, the stock prices should increase at a higher percentage [5][9]. - Producers are identified as the most beneficial stocks during price increases due to their ability to generate higher free cash flow and improve their balance sheets [6][8]. - Developers also present significant potential, especially those with strong projects that can yield high future cash flows [10][18]. Group 2: Stock Analysis Criteria - A checklist for analyzing mining stocks includes evaluating property quality, location, financing issues, management team, valuation, balance sheet, margins, exploration pipeline, share structure, and overall risk-reward [13][15]. - The focus should be on identifying high-quality potential stocks rather than trying to pick specific winners [16][17]. Group 3: Types of Mining Stocks - The three main categories of mining stocks are producers, developers, and explorers, with producers offering the best risk-reward profile in a bull market [50][71]. - Developers are considered riskier but can provide high upside potential, while exploration stocks are less elastic and should be approached with caution [22][69]. Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The current market for gold and silver is characterized by increased volatility, with expectations of corrections in prices, which are common in bull markets [75][86]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could reach $5,000 and silver $100, which would significantly impact the valuations of mining companies [19][37]. Group 5: Specific Stock Recommendations - Three undercovered mining stocks highlighted include 1911 Gold, Talisker Resources, and Jaguar Mining, each with unique growth potential and market conditions [38][41][48]. - 1911 Gold is expected to return to production by 2027, while Talisker is projected to increase its output significantly in the coming years [41][45]. - Jaguar Mining is noted for its growth potential, with plans to ramp up production significantly [48].

Investment Strategy - Advocates for a blend of index funds and individual stock ownership, suggesting a five-stock portfolio with one speculative pick [14][15] - Emphasizes the importance of diversification within growth stocks to mitigate risk [19] - Stresses the need to conduct thorough research ("do homework") before investing in any stock [6][21] - Suggests using available resources like chat tools (Perplexity, Grok) to analyze company balance sheets for debt [10] Market Analysis & Outlook - Acknowledges the dramatically changed market structure and the increased access to securities and asset classes for investors [9][13] - Highlights the potential for individual stocks, like Nvidia, to significantly impact an investor's financial life [15][16][17] - Notes that third-quarter winners often continue to perform well into the fourth quarter [21] Stock Picking & Selling - Recommends paying attention to a stock's performance and balance sheet to determine when to sell [9][10] - Suggests that if a stock consistently declines, investors should examine the balance sheet for issues like excessive debt [9][10]

Cryptocurrency & Politics - California gubernatorial candidate pledges to hold Bitcoin ($BTC) on the state balance sheet [1]