Debasement fears seem to be everywhere—except the one place they should be most obvious: bonds https://t.co/d6q6teJ0yv ...

Market Outlook - The market is currently in a bubble, with a parabolic leg approaching, and Q4 will offer a preview of more significant activity expected next year [1] - This bubble is driven by narratives of debasement and AI, operating on fear rather than hope, pushing investors to buy gold/BTC and gain AI exposure [2] - The narratives haven't fully permeated society, but are expected to [2] - The economy is sustained by AI capital expenditure, showing resilience despite tariff headwinds, but with a two-speed dynamic where high-end and asset owners are outperforming [8] - A strong Q4 for BTC is anticipated, followed by a downturn due to the 4-year cycle debate, and then a rebound [9] Potential Catalysts - A Trump-led Fed hijacking is expected, involving rate cuts and yield curve control, potentially starting in May of next year [4] - A shift in USG debt issuance towards treasury bills is expected to lower long-dated bond yields, stimulating the economy [5] - Unlocking GSEs to increase leverage and buy mortgage bonds is expected to lower mortgage spreads and stimulate the economy [6] - Stimulus checks are expected to be airdropped to US citizens, potentially as part of a budget reconciliation bill, to boost the economy before the midterms [7] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to remain long over the next 12 months, strategically adjusting portfolio composition between gold, BTC, and stocks [9]

Market Analysis & Trends - Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2020, which is up 100%, while Bitcoin is down 90% when priced in Bitcoin, highlighting the importance of the reference point [4][5] - Gold is up 50% year-to-date, while Bitcoin is up 35% year-to-date; however, over the past year, gold is up 50% and Bitcoin is up 100%; over five years, gold is up 100% and Bitcoin is up 1,000% [6][7] - Institutions are recognizing debasement, inflation, and currency manipulation, leading them to invest in Bitcoin and gold [9] - Gold and Bitcoin have been the top two performing assets globally, driven by the realization that governments will continue printing money [10] - Bitcoin's market cap is expected to surpass gold's, as digital assets tend to be larger than analog versions; currently, gold has a market cap of $26-27 trillion, while Bitcoin's is $2.5 trillion, approximately 10% of gold's [12][13] - Morgan Stanley's global investment committee suggests allocating 2-4% of portfolios to Bitcoin [16] - The average return of Bitcoin in Q4 since 2015 is 59%, approximately 60% [29] Institutional Adoption & Influence - Major banks and institutions are capitulating and embracing Bitcoin due to client demand [19][20] - BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is their most profitable ETF, positioning BlackRock as a Bitcoin company [21][22][23] - Bitcoin has transitioned from a contrarian to a consensus trade, with figures like Paul Tudor Jones and Ken Griffin becoming bullish [24] Investment Strategies & Perspectives - Individuals are allocating more than 1% to Bitcoin, with some hedge fund managers holding 20% (15% gold, 5% Bitcoin) [25] - Investors should consider Bitcoin as a savings technology and a resilient asset, rather than just a trading position [27][53][55] - Investors should prepare for market downturns and allocate assets in a way that allows them to "sleep through a storm," balancing asymmetric upside with downside resilience [32][33][39][50] - Investors need to become investors to protect themselves from the effects of continuous money printing [51][52]

Investment Thesis - The core investment philosophy centers around the devaluation of fiat currencies against hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and other scarce assets [1] - The "great debasement trade" is identified as a secular trend, favoring debasement hedge assets [1] Market Outlook - The market possesses reflexivity, suggesting potential for significant price movements [2] - A target of $250,000 for Bitcoin is considered aggressive, but fireworks are expected [2] Key Drivers - Trump's plan to influence the Federal Reserve is seen as a catalyst for Bitcoin's potential rise [3] - Fiat currencies are viewed as "hopeless," positioning Bitcoin as a solution [2]

Bitcoin is going to be a big winner in the debasement trade.The next 12 weeks are bitcoin's time to shine. https://t.co/LgNGShWk8i ...

Everything is DebasementLuke Gromen (@LukeGromen):"The Debasement Trade" since COVID:In USD: NDX up 165%, SPX up 102%, Home prices up 56%.In gold: NDX up 7%, SPX down 18%, Home prices down 37%.In BTC: NDX down 78%, SPX down 84%, Home prices down 87%. https://t.co/pgzLf2x25g ...

JPMorgan says bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold.On a volatility-adjusted basis, BTC’s market cap would need to rise 42% to match private sector gold investment, implying a price of $165,000.The debasement trade is on.[Presented by @JoinHorizon_] https://t.co/HG5NAyaifk ...

RT PlanB (@100trillionUSD)Just a reminder that S&P at $7,000 correlates with bitcoin at $300,000You gotta love debasement, print baby print🚀 https://t.co/2eOiYlbqqZ ...

Asset Price Inflation - Asset prices have increased exponentially over the last 10 years, driven by money printing [1] - Gold has increased 3x (approximately 200%) from ~$1 thousand to ~$3 thousand [1] - S&P 500 has increased 3x (approximately 200%) from ~$2 thousand to ~$6 thousand [1] - Bitcoin has increased 250x (approximately 24900%) from ~$400 to ~$100 thousand [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The exponential increase in asset prices is considered a unit of account phenomena, influenced by debasement [1]

We still have so much upside available to us. I think it can do a 10x in the next 5 years. That that basket of store value assets currently today in 2025 is worth about $1,000 trillion.As the they continue printing more money, that basket gets bigger. So in in 2020, that basket was worth I think it was about 5 or 600 trillion. Today it's worth about a quadrillion. By 2030, that should be worth about 1.6% quadrillion.The US government, the CBO, Congressional Budget Office, lays out the budget for the next 30 ...