Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral asset allocation stance while focusing on diversification across regions and styles [3]. Core Insights - Increased expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve and de-escalation of geopolitical tensions have created a favorable "Goldilocks" environment for markets, supporting growth pricing across various assets [1][2]. - The report highlights a broad geographical bullish growth repricing, with equities outperforming bonds and cyclicals outperforming defensives [1]. - Consensus EPS revisions have turned less negative recently, with positive revisions noted for the US market, indicating improved expectations for equity fundamentals [2]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The report indicates that markets are pricing in a more dovish Fed, with expectations for a rate cut brought forward to September and a reduced terminal rate forecast of 3-3.25% [1][7]. - The labor market data expected this Thursday is deemed critical for sustaining positive momentum, with economists forecasting 85k for non-farm payrolls, below the consensus of +113k [1]. Earnings Outlook - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is highlighted as a key focus, with a relatively low bar for EPS growth set at 4%, down from 12% in Q1, and insights expected on corporate adjustments to increased tariff rates [2]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests that reverse dispersion trades may be attractive as a macro hedge against potential growth deterioration over the summer [2]. - Recommendations include option hedges and specific strategies such as USD HY puts/CDS payers to hedge against stagflationary shocks [6]. Performance Metrics - The report provides forecasts for various asset classes, indicating expected total returns and downside risks for equities and bonds over different time horizons [18]. - The S&P 500 is projected to have a total return of -4.1% over 3 months, with a potential upside of 6.6% over 12 months [18]. Risk Appetite - The report notes a rebound in the Risk Appetite Indicator to 0.3, reflecting increased risk appetite among investors [1][26]. - Implied equity correlations have been falling, indicating expectations of more dispersion in the earnings season and a fading macro risk environment [2][15].

Market Sentiment & Geopolitical Impact - Markets initially reacted to geopolitical events with de-risking, but the limited surge in oil prices suggests a lower risk of straits being closed [2][5] - Stress tests have been passed by the market, indicating potential for stocks to perform well [4] - Geopolitical events have not significantly altered growth and inflation expectations for US stocks, bonds, and the dollar [6] Inflation & Monetary Policy - US CPI, calculated on the same basis as the ECB's core CPI (excluding housing), is lower than Europe's, suggesting a potential dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Inflation expectations are currently above CPI, which could lead to positive surprises if inflation is lower than expected [12] Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - Consumer discretionary sector is leading market gains, while energy lags [1] - There are echoes of 2021 with some stocks receiving bizarre valuations, but institutional investors are less risk-taking due to macro uncertainties [8][9] - Retail investors, who bought the dip in April, are driving speculative activity, while high net worth individuals and institutions remain cautious [10] - Macro conditions are improving with better visibility on tariffs and regulation into 2026, supporting a bullish outlook [11] - Businesses have shown resilience, with earnings performing better despite potential economic weakening [12]