Core Insights - The second-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for defense stocks has begun, with major S&P 500 defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Textron, and General Dynamics reporting better-than-expected earnings [1] - Optimism remains for the upcoming results of other defense majors due to escalating geopolitical tensions driving demand for defense products and services [2] - Companies like Archer Aviation and Heico Corp are anticipated to exceed earnings expectations in this reporting cycle [3] Industry Overview - Global defense spending is increasing amid geopolitical instability, particularly due to conflicts in the Middle East, with the U.S. government proposing a 13% increase in defense spending to $1.01 trillion for fiscal 2026 [4] - Increased budget allocations are expected to lead to higher order volumes from the Pentagon and allied governments, enhancing revenue prospects for U.S. defense contractors [5] - Ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran wars, have contributed to revenue growth in the defense sector, with the U.S. providing $66.9 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since February 2022 [6] - The U.S. has 751 active Foreign Military Sales cases valued at $39.2 billion with Israel, which is expected to boost order growth for U.S. defense manufacturers [7] - Companies like General Dynamics are benefiting from growth in both defense and commercial aerospace sectors, with a reported 4.1% year-over-year growth in its Aerospace segment [8] Challenges - The defense sector faces challenges such as skilled labor shortages, supply-chain disruptions, and new import tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which may impact production and delivery timelines [9] Earnings Projections - The Aerospace sector is projected to see a year-over-year earnings surge of 11.5% on 24.8% sales growth for the second quarter [12] - Archer Aviation is advancing its defense aircraft program and raised $301.8 million in February 2025, with an expected earnings loss of 19 cents per share, an improvement from the previous year's loss [16][17] - Heico, a U.S. Department of Defense Prime Contractor, is expected to show solid growth in its Defense and Space unit, with earnings projected at $1.12 per share, reflecting a 15.5% year-over-year improvement [18][19]

Core Insights - Vistra Corp. (VST) is anticipated to show growth in both revenue and earnings per share for Q2 2025, with revenues expected to reach $5.04 billion, a 31.14% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share estimated at 98 cents, reflecting an 8.89% increase from the previous year [1][3][6] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST's Q2 revenues is $5.04 billion, which is a 31.14% increase from $3.85 billion reported a year ago [2][6] - For the next quarter, revenues are projected at $7.24 billion, indicating a 15.11% growth year-over-year [2] - The current year revenue estimate stands at $21.96 billion, a 27.48% increase from the previous year [2] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 earnings is 98 cents per share, an 8.89% increase from the year-ago figure of 90 cents [3][4] - For the next quarter, earnings are estimated at $2.07 per share, while the current year estimate is $6.24 per share, reflecting a decrease of 10.86% year-over-year [4] Performance and Market Position - Vistra has surpassed earnings expectations in one of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 58.13% [5] - The company has executed $5.2 billion in share buybacks, which has positively impacted earnings per share and is expected to continue with an additional $1.5 billion in buybacks planned for 2025-2026 [6][15][16] - VST's shares have increased by 173.7% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average of 15.2% [18] Market Dynamics - The second-quarter performance is likely to benefit from rising electricity demand driven by factors such as the electrification of the oil and gas sector, new LNG infrastructure, and the growth of AI-driven data centers [13][17] - Vistra's integrated business model and diversified generation portfolio, including a nuclear fleet, position the company well to capitalize on increasing demand for clean electricity [14][22][23] Valuation - Vistra is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis [20]

Core Insights - Expedia Group (EXPE) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 7, with expected revenues of $3.71 billion, reflecting a 4.39% increase year-over-year, and earnings estimated at $4.14 per share, indicating a 17.95% rise from the previous year [1][3]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPE's second-quarter 2025 revenues is $3.71 billion, a 4.39% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus for earnings is $4.14 per share, which is a $0.01 increase over the past 30 days and represents a 17.95% increase year-over-year [1]. Recent Performance Trends - EXPE has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.48% [2]. - The company anticipates gross bookings growth of 2-4% and revenue growth of 3-5%, with a one-point benefit from the Easter shift and a two-point foreign exchange headwind [3][9]. Market Dynamics - The performance in the second quarter is expected to be influenced by ongoing challenges in the U.S. market, resilience in international markets, and cost optimization efforts [3]. - Domestic travel softness and reduced inbound flows may have impacted B2C performance due to EXPE's significant U.S. market exposure [4]. Segment Performance - The B2B segment is expected to be a key growth driver, likely maintaining double-digit momentum supported by expanded partnerships and strength in the APAC region [5]. - Advertising revenues are projected to show robust growth, aided by increased partner participation and new advertising solutions, with AI-driven tools enhancing platform adoption [6]. Operational Efficiency - Management expects adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 75-100 basis points year-over-year, driven by operational efficiency initiatives and cost discipline measures, including restructuring actions affecting approximately 4% of employees [7].

Core Viewpoint - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on August 6, with earnings estimated at $1.94 per share, reflecting a 12.8% increase year-over-year [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $218 million, indicating a 10.1% growth from the previous year [2] - The second-quarter earnings estimate has seen four upward revisions and three downward movements in the last 30 days [2] Earnings Surprise History - MarketAxess has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.67% [3] - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.95%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at $1.96 per share [4] Factors Influencing Q2 Results - Increased trading volumes and market share gains in credit products are expected to boost credit commission revenues to $138.4 million, an 8.4% year-over-year increase [5][6] - Solid trading volumes in international markets and new product areas are anticipated to contribute to overall commission growth, with a consensus estimate of $189 million, reflecting a 9.9% increase from the prior year [8] Trading Volume and Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for total trading volume is 2.9 million, representing a 33.3% growth year-over-year [9] - Information services revenues are projected at $13.4 million, indicating a 6.5% rise from the previous year [10] Expense Outlook - Total expenses are expected to reach $125.7 million, marking an 8.1% increase year-over-year due to ongoing investments in trading and data capabilities [11]

Core Insights - Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) is set to release its second-quarter 2025 results on August 6, after market close, and has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters with an average earnings surprise of 0.6% [1] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corpay's revenues is $1.1 billion, reflecting a 12.7% growth compared to the same quarter last year, driven by growth across all segments [2][9] - Revenue from vehicle payments is estimated at $523.3 million, indicating a 2.6% increase year-over-year, supported by the company's app-based strategy and organic revenue growth in Brazil [3] - Corporate payments revenue is projected at $392.1 million, suggesting a significant 35.9% year-over-year growth, aided by strong payables revenues and new channel partnerships [4] - Lodging revenues are expected to reach $123.8 million, representing a 1.2% rise from the previous year, likely due to a moderate increase in occupancy [4] Earnings Projections - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $5.13, implying a 12.8% year-over-year growth, driven by strong margins [5][9] - The model predicts an earnings beat for Corpay, with an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a favorable outlook for the upcoming earnings report [6]

Core Insights - Cencora (COR) is expected to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 6, with a history of earnings surprises, averaging 6% over the last four quarters [1][2] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cencora's revenues is $80.33 billion, reflecting an 8.2% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for earnings is $3.78 per share, indicating a 13.2% improvement year-over-year [2] Segment Performance - The U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment is driving growth, with revenues of $68.3 billion in the second quarter, an 11% year-over-year increase, supported by strong demand for specialty medicines [3][4] - Specialty products are a key growth area, with operating income in the U.S. segment rising 23% in the fiscal second quarter, despite a 10% sequential decline in GLP-1 revenue due to seasonal factors [4][10] - The International Healthcare Solutions segment showed modest performance, generating $7.2 billion in revenue last quarter, with a 1% increase reported and a 17% decline in operating income [6][10] Strategic Developments - Cencora's acquisition of Retina Consultants of America (RCA) is expected to enhance the company's margin profile, with RCA's impact becoming more visible as integration progresses [7] - The company has raised its full-year operating income outlook for the U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment, anticipating continued benefits from strong first-half performance [3] Earnings Outlook - The model does not predict an earnings beat for Cencora this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% [11]

Core Viewpoint - Zoetis, Inc. (ZTS) is anticipated to exceed expectations in its second-quarter 2025 earnings report, with projected revenues of $2.4 billion and earnings of $1.61 per share [1][5]. Revenue Sources - The company generates most of its revenue from a diverse portfolio of veterinary medicines and vaccines for livestock and companion animals, with additional income from non-pharmaceutical categories such as nutritional products and precision animal health services [2]. Geographical Performance - Revenues from the United States segment are expected to rise, driven by increased sales of companion animal products, with estimates at $1.33 billion [3]. - The International segment is also projected to see revenue growth, with estimates around $1.05 billion, attributed to higher sales of companion animal products [4]. Product Performance - Strong demand for products like Simparica Trio, Librela, and Apoquel is likely to boost sales in the companion animal segment, while livestock product revenues may decline due to divestitures [5][6]. - Key products contributing to growth include monoclonal antibodies for osteoarthritis pain and flea, tick, and heartworm combination products [6]. Regulatory Approvals - The FDA's recent approval of Simparica Trio for preventing flea tapeworm infections is expected to enhance sales further [8]. Historical Performance - Zoetis has a strong earnings surprise history, surpassing estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 5.21% [12]. Earnings Prediction - The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.42%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus estimate of $1.61 per share [14].

Core Viewpoint - Sunrun Inc. (RUN) is expected to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 6, with a focus on sales growth driven by solar demand and challenges from increased costs [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sunrun's Q2 sales is $557.2 million, reflecting a 6.4% increase from the previous year [4][9]. - The earnings estimate for the upcoming quarter is a loss of 18 cents per share, a decline from earnings of 55 cents per share reported in the same quarter last year [4][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Results - Strong sales volume for solar energy systems and products, along with a growing customer base and increased storage attachment rates, are expected to positively impact revenues [2]. - However, rising expenses due to higher battery hardware and installation labor costs from increased storage attachment rates may negatively affect overall earnings [3]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Insights - The current Earnings ESP for Sunrun is -47.26%, indicating a low probability of an earnings beat this quarter [5]. - Sunrun holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a neutral outlook compared to other stocks in the sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is expected to report a decline in both earnings and revenues for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.71 per share and revenues at $4.43 billion, reflecting year-over-year decreases [1][7]. Financial Estimates - The second-quarter earnings estimate has decreased by 2 cents over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year decline of 6.6% [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues in the second quarter suggests a year-over-year decrease of 13.7% [2]. - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $17.68 billion, implying a 0.9% decline year over year, while the EPS estimate is $6.75, indicating a 6.4% year-over-year decline [3]. Earnings Performance - Aflac has beaten earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, with an average surprise of 9.3% [3]. - The current Earnings ESP is -1.25%, and the Zacks Rank is 2 (Buy), suggesting uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [4]. Factors Influencing Q2 Results - Expected premium growth may be offset by lower earnings from Japan and weaker investment income [7]. - The consensus estimate for total net earned premiums indicates a 3.4% year-over-year increase, while the Aflac U.S. unit is expected to see a 3.3% increase in adjusted revenues, contrasting with a 2.6% decline in the Aflac Japan unit [8]. - Net investment income is projected to decline by 17.2% year over year [9]. - The total benefit to premium ratio for Aflac U.S. is expected to rise to 47.8 from 46.7 a year ago, while Aflac Japan's ratio is expected to decrease to 65.3 from 66.9 [9]. - Pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. are estimated to fall by 8.1%, and Aflac Japan is likely to see a 13.2% decline [9][10]. Peer Performance - Marsh & McLennan reported adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share, surpassing estimates by 2.3% due to strong growth in Risk and Insurance Services [11]. - AON reported adjusted earnings of $3.49 per share, beating estimates by 2.7%, benefiting from new business growth and solid retention rates [12]. - AMERISAFE reported adjusted earnings of 53 cents per share, missing estimates by 3.6%, affected by a drop in net investment income and elevated expenses [13].

Core Viewpoint - Axon Enterprise, Inc. is expected to report strong second-quarter 2025 results, with earnings projected at $1.54 per share and revenues at $643 million, reflecting significant year-over-year growth [2][8]. Financial Performance - The earnings estimates for the second quarter have increased by 4.8% over the past 60 days, indicating a 28.3% increase from the previous year [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 27.6% [2]. - Axon has a history of exceeding earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 19.8% over the last four quarters [3]. Segment Performance - The Connected Devices segment is anticipated to generate revenues of $364 million, a 23.4% increase from the previous year, driven by strong demand for TASER devices and the new Axon Body 4 camera [6][8]. - The Software & Services segment is expected to see revenues rise by 35.4% to $283 million, supported by user growth and enhanced cloud offerings [9][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on acquisitions and partnerships to enhance its product offerings, including the acquisition of Dedrone for airspace security and a partnership with Skydio for drone solutions [10]. - The increase in the number of users on the Axon network and benefits from recent acquisitions are likely to contribute positively to future performance [19]. Market Position - Axon shares have increased by 20.3% over the past three months, outperforming the S&P 500's 12.2% increase [12]. - The company's current valuation is high, with a forward P/E ratio of 103.48X, significantly above the industry average of 52.76X, which may pose risks if market sentiment changes [15][16]. Investment Outlook - The company is well-positioned for sustained growth due to its diversified product portfolio, strategic collaborations, and strong market demand [18][20]. - Positive analyst sentiment and robust growth prospects make Axon an attractive addition to investment portfolios [20].