Monetary Policy Stance - The industry aims to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored [1] - The industry intends to prevent a one-time price level increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem [1] - The current policy stance is seen as appropriate to guard against inflation risks [1] - The industry is attentive to risks on the employment side of its mandate [2] Economic Assessment - The industry is well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks [1] - The industry will receive a good amount of data in coming months to inform its assessment of the balance of risks [2] - This data will help determine the appropriate setting of the federal funds [2]

Summary of Federal Reserve System Update / Briefing July 30, 2025 Key Points on the Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions Economic Overview - The economy is in a solid position with a low unemployment rate and maximum employment achieved [1][4] - GDP growth moderated to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year, with a stronger second quarter growth of 3% [2][3] - Consumer spending has slowed, while business investment in equipment and intangibles has increased [3][4] - The housing sector remains weak, and payroll job gains averaged 150,000 per month over the past three months [3][4] Inflation Insights - Inflation is running above the 2% target, with total PCE prices rising 2.5% over the past year and core PCE prices rising 2.7% [5][4] - Services inflation has eased, but increased tariffs are contributing to higher prices in some goods categories [5][6] - The Fed is focused on keeping longer-term inflation expectations anchored while managing potential inflation risks [7][6] Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.5% [2][6] - The current monetary policy is viewed as modestly restrictive, appropriate for the current economic conditions [11][12] - The Fed is awaiting more data on employment and inflation before making decisions on potential rate cuts [12][13] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market remains solid, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and wage growth moderating but still outpacing inflation [4][21] - There are downside risks to the labor market, with job creation slowing and the supply of workers also declining [20][81] - The Fed is closely monitoring the balance of risks in the labor market and the overall economy [8][81] Future Considerations - The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the broader economy [31][36] - Discussions are ongoing about potential revisions to the monetary policy framework, with a focus on balancing maximum employment and price stability [9][84] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of data in guiding future monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding inflation and employment [63][94] Additional Insights - The Fed does not consider the fiscal needs of the government when making monetary policy decisions, focusing instead on its dual mandate [40][41] - The independence of the Fed is highlighted as crucial for making data-driven decisions without political influence [73][74] - The Fed is monitoring the evolving economic landscape, including consumer spending trends and the effects of tariffs on inflation [76][78]

Core Points - Economic activity growth moderated in the first half of the year, with low unemployment and solid labor market conditions, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The Federal Reserve aims for maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2 percent, amidst elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with ongoing assessments of incoming data and risks [3][4] Monetary Policy Implementation - Effective July 31, 2025, the interest rate on reserve balances is set at 4.4 percent, with open market operations to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range [8] - Standing overnight repurchase agreement operations will have a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion [8] - The Federal Reserve will reinvest principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities into Treasury securities, with a monthly cap of $35 billion [8]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve views its current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks and is attentive to employment risks [3] - The committee is on track to wrap up any modifications to its statement on longer run goals and monetary policy strategy by late summer [4] - The Federal Reserve aims to bring inflation sustainably to its 2% goal and keep longer term inflation expectations well anchored [5] Economic Outlook and Risks - Changes to government policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain [1] - Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen [1] - There is a risk that inflationary effects could be more persistent [2] - The Federal Reserve is well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting its policy stance [3] Data and Assessment - In coming months, the committee will receive a good amount of data that will help inform its assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate [4]

U.S. July ADP employment increased by 104K, the largest gain since March, beating expectations of 75K and up from the previous -33K. ...

Labor Market - Young people in a northern India town dedicate years to preparing for low-level railway job applications [1]

30m Indians want a job on the railways. A fiendish general-knowledge test stands in their way. From 1843 magazine https://t.co/mMMY2bz0gu ...

Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523 michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Abiel Reinhart (1-617) 712 9122 abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA North America Economic Research J P M O R G A N 18 July 2025 US: The AI effect on job growth The discussion about AI taking jobs, or at least good jobs, is generally framed as tomorrow's problem. However, there are some hints that AI may already be taking "knowledge work- er" jobs: job-finding among college grads has been unimpres- sive, and ...

Recidivism & Re-entry Challenges - The industry acknowledges the high recidivism rate, with 70% of individuals returning to prison within 3 years of release [5][6] - Lack of opportunities, including employment and housing discrimination due to criminal records, contributes to re-entry difficulties [2][3] - The industry recognizes the sense of hopelessness and anxiety experienced by formerly incarcerated individuals due to societal expectations and internal struggles [4][5] Importance of Opportunity & Support - Meaningful opportunities are crucial for successful re-entry and reducing recidivism [6] - Fair opportunities should not be based on chance or luck but should be actively created by communities [24][25] - Community support, including employment and housing, plays a vital role in the successful reintegration of formerly incarcerated individuals [23][25] Overcoming Barriers & Individual Impact - Individuals can overcome barriers with the help of educators, employers, and landlords who are willing to offer opportunities [7][12][18] - The value of a second chance is highlighted through examples of individuals who provided support and believed in the speaker's potential [15][17][20] - Small acts of kindness and acceptance can significantly impact the trajectory of formerly incarcerated individuals and reduce recidivism [25][26]

V i e w p o i n t | 07 Jul 2025 10:45:34 ET │ 9 pages US Economics FOMC Minutes Preview – Preparing to lower interest rates CITI'S TAKE Minutes from the 17–18 June FOMC meeting are likely to be more in keeping with dovish post-meeting statements from Powell and other Fed officials than Powell's more neutral post-meeting press conference. Last week's strong jobs report makes a cut this month unlikely, in our view. We continue to expect cuts to resume in September, with 125bp of cuts delivered through March o ...