Neils ChristensenNeils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada. He has worked exclusively within the financial sector since 2007, when he started with the Canadian Economic Press. Neils can be contacted at: 1 866 925 4826 ext. 1526 nchristensen at kitco.com @Neils_cShareDisclaimer: The views expressed ...

US Jobs Report November 2025: Live News on Employment, Payrolls https://t.co/aHk5JtmhUY ...

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived, effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. ...

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 to 3 and 3/4%. In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation.There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation ...

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 to 3 and 3/4%. In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation.There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to support employment and inflation goals, while also initiating purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to maintain an ample supply of reserves [2] Economic Activity - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with solid consumer spending and continued growth in business fixed investment [3] - The housing sector remains weak, and the temporary federal government shutdown has negatively impacted economic activity, though growth is expected to rebound next quarter [4] Labor Market - Despite delays in official employment data, evidence indicates low levels of layoffs and hiring, with perceptions of job availability declining [5] - The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.4%, with job gains slowing significantly, attributed to a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and participation [5][6] - The median projection for the unemployment rate is 4.5% at the end of this year, with a slight decrease expected thereafter [6] Inflation - Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs but remains elevated, with total PCE prices rising 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September [7] - Core PCE prices also rose 2.8%, with inflation for goods increasing due to tariffs, while disinflation in services continues [8] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 2.9% this year and 2.4% next year, with a long-term goal of 2% [9]

Economic Outlook - The economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with solid consumer spending and business fixed investment [3] - The temporary government shutdown likely weighed on economic activity in the current quarter, but these effects should be mostly offset by higher growth next quarter [4] - Real GDP is projected to rise 17% this year and 23% next year, somewhat stronger than projected in September [4] Labor Market - Labor market conditions appear to be gradually cooling [1] - Layoffs and hiring remain low, and perceptions of job availability and hiring difficulty have declined [5] - The unemployment rate reached 44% in September, and job gains have slowed significantly [5] - The median projection of the unemployment rate is 45% at the end of this year and edges down thereafter [6] Inflation - Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to the 2% longerrun goal [7] - Total PCE prices rose 28% over the 12 months ending in September, and core PCE prices also rose 28% [7] - Near-term measures of inflation expectations have declined from their peaks earlier in the year [8] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 29% this year and 24% next year, a bit lower than the median projection in September, thereafter, the median falls to 2% [9] Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point (025%) [2] - The Committee also decided to initiate purchases of shorterterm Treasury securities solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves [2]

But I want to lay out the argument for the Fed to do something different. I want to actually argue that they should make a 50 basis point cut. So first, we know the labor market is softening.We see that the fears are rising that a broader slowdown or recession could happen if we don't aggressively address the situation. Non-farm payrolls, they added only 119,000 jobs in September. It's a sharp deceleration from post-pandemic averages and the report came in below economic expectation.So due to this decelerat ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economy, highlighting a growth trajectory that is above potential, with GDP expected to exceed forecasts in the upcoming quarter [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth vs. Labor Market**: There is a noted tension between strong output growth and soft labor markets, which is unsustainable without either increased hiring or a slowdown in growth [1]. The expectation is for a rebound in hiring, supported by consumer spending and fiscal/monetary policies, leading to a more balanced economic expansion in the first half of 2026 [1]. - **Global Composite PMI**: The J.P. Morgan global composite PMI indicates a potential annualized GDP growth of nearly 3%, which is over a percentage point stronger than previous projections [2]. The manufacturing PMI suggests a 1.3% annual rise in global industry, with a positive trend in orders relative to inventories [2]. - **Business Spending**: Mixed signals are present regarding business spending, with U.S. Fed regional surveys showing an uptick in capital expenditure, while the global investment goods PMI fell below the neutral mark [3]. This has led to a stall in the global capex nowcaster for the first time since the beginning of the year [3]. - **Employment Trends**: The global employment PMI has decreased, indicating weak job growth, particularly in the U.S., where a significant drop in private hiring was reported [10]. However, a decrease in unemployment insurance claims is a positive sign [10]. - **Consumer Spending**: Real consumer spending in the U.S. was softer than expected, with a flat report for September and a downward revision for August [11]. Despite this, there were rebounds in Chase card data and auto sales in October and November, indicating some resilience [11]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The report anticipates a variety of outcomes from central banks as the global easing cycle concludes. Expectations include one rate hike, eight cuts, and twelve holds by year-end [13]. The Fed is expected to signal a cautious approach to future cuts, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to hike rates due to fiscal policy changes [16]. Additional Important Insights - **Euro Area Resilience**: The Euro area shows signs of resilience, with upward revisions to PMI and GDP growth, indicating a growth rate of 1.6% annualized [18]. Despite trade war impacts, fiscal easing in Germany is expected to bolster growth [18]. - **China's Economic Signals**: China's PMIs suggest a year-end recovery, with positive signals from new export orders and construction PMIs, although services have softened [21]. The forecast for GDP growth in Q4 is 3.0% quarter-over-quarter [21]. - **Trade Agreements**: The status of the USMCA renewal is uncertain, with potential delays in legislative approval until 2027, despite expectations for a preliminary agreement [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch, focusing on the global economic outlook, labor market dynamics, consumer spending trends, and central bank policies, while also highlighting regional insights and trade considerations.

Artificial intelligence has created a “terrifying” outlook for employment, Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks cautioned, and an assumed productivity boom fails to consider how many people will be able to afford the additional goods produced https://t.co/VZNkoRvw0W ...