China's Economy & Trade Talks - China's economy is in relatively good shape, with July data showing improvement compared to June, although growth is not exceeding year-ago levels [1][2] - China has included export controls in trade negotiations, giving them significant leverage, particularly concerning rare earths and critical minerals [3][5] - The inclusion of export controls has created a situation of mutually assured destruction, giving China a choke point over the United States economy [6] Manufacturing Sector - Despite PMI data suggesting weakness, the manufacturing sector in China remains strong and continues to export [9][10] - While exports to the United States have contracted, there has been a surge in exports to Asia, indicating the manufacturing machine is still productive [10] - Manufacturing's strength is crucial as China currently lacks other significant growth drivers [11] Security Concerns & Chip Industry - China is raising potential security risks with chips, potentially as a response to concerns about Huawei [6] - There are concerns about the future ability to geographically track chips, leading to worries about transshipment and potential circumvention of regulations [7]

China has top-flight models. But export controls left it struggling to run them https://t.co/5Mexnry4dL ...

Trade Talk Status - US-China trade talks in Stockholm concluded with mixed signals, Trump acknowledged Monday was not good, but today was better [1] - The talks ended without a confirmed 90-day pause on tariffs, a key market expectation [2] - Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative will brief President Trump, who will decide on the pause [2][3] - Another talk is expected in about 90 days, renewing focus on the August 12th deadline for tariff snapback [3] China's Economic Position - China's economy is "swimming in place" despite tariffs, indicating resilience [4] - China possesses negotiating leverage, exemplified by rare earth export controls [4] - China feels confident in its position [4] Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - Companies relying on China imports, like toy companies, are experiencing pain, expecting it to last until at least 2026 [6] - The challenge lies in the uncertainty of future tariff levels, hindering production movement [7] - Toys and games are the most exposed sector from a consumer perspective due to reliance on China imports [8] - Tariff rates from China are converging with rates from elsewhere, potentially reducing the incentive to move production [9][10] - A realistic worst-case scenario involves tariffs staying at 30%, potentially leading to empty shelves and inflationary impacts [18] - Tariffs could reach close to 50% when combined with previous trade war tariffs and sectoral tariffs [19] US Strategy and Potential Concessions - The US may offer concessions on export controls and fentanyl tariffs to secure a meeting between President Trump and President Xi [12] China's Compliance and Economic Management - China has previously fallen short on commitments to buy US exports [15] - China is managing the situation by maintaining stable economic numbers and implementing stimulus measures [21][22] - China has kept interest rates at historic lows and increased fiscal activity [21]

US-China Trade Negotiations - Negotiations with China are expected to differ significantly from those with the UK, Japan, and the EU [2] - China is prepared to respond to tariffs on a reciprocal basis and has other leverage mechanisms, such as export controls on critical minerals [2][3] - The negotiation is expected to be lengthy due to each side's strengths and weaknesses [3] Tariff Outlook - The initial approach of securing deals with allies before focusing on China has not been successful [6] - The market anticipates the removal of approximately 20% of EPA fentanyl tariffs over the next 90 days [9][10] - A 25% tariff from 2018 is expected to remain in place [10] Critical Minerals - China has leveraged export controls for critical minerals [3][6] - There is uncertainty regarding the expiration of the six-month sunset on the critical minerals export licensing process agreed to by China [8] Timelines and Potential Meetings - An additional 90 days are expected to provide benefits for Chinese factories, businesses, and consumers, extending beyond the holiday shopping period [7] - The administration aims to arrange a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping [8]

Cadence Design pleaded guilty to charges accusing the company of violating US export controls by selling hardware and software to China’s National University of Defense Technology https://t.co/OchDJK7ANL ...

Well, the agreement with the EU and US is far from final, as we just were talking about, with many details still to be ironed out. Meanwhile, US negotiators are jumping right into their next big round with China. Talks with that country began in Stockholm today.Joining us now, Zoe Lou, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow, as well as Terry Haynes, Pangia policy founder, and Yahoo Finances Washington correspondent Ben Worskll. Ben, let's start with you here. We've got this deal with the EU.Now, they're ...

Yeah, Aean, stick around. Let's also now bring in MCC Global Enterprises CEO, of course, CBC contributor, former anchor Michelle Caruso Cabrero. No disrespect to the EU. EU's big deal. European Union's big economy. It's not China. That that's the deal. >> No, that the EU was the undercard. And now we're getting to the main event. >> Well said. I wish I would have used it. >> And and and as Aean said, it's also the most difficult huge trade deficit that we have with China, something we've been trying to solv ...

Trump’s stunning U-turn on export controls means that whatever the economic outcome for the US, Silicon Valley wins, writes @parmy (via @opinion) https://t.co/B2xb12Y7kS ...

America's AI leadership hinges on maintaining strict export controls on advanced chips and creating a federal transparency standard for AI development.We look forward to working with policymakers on both sides of the aisle on these issues.Read more: https://t.co/7KFOAlFYLl ...

中国国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室在广西南宁召开打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动推进会，要求坚决防止绕道出口，严防相关物项被非法用于军事用户或军事用途。 https://t.co/YdvUw7tzvH ...