Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates strong support from fiscal expansion for social financing (社融) and M2 growth, despite the impact of last year's low base and local debt replacement. The conclusion remains valid even after considering various data disturbances, but endogenous tight credit conditions may persist, and internal financing demand still needs to recover [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing and M2 Growth - In April, new social financing reached 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan compared to the same month last year, primarily driven by government debt contributions. The net financing of new government debt in April was 972.9 billion yuan, a significant increase from last year's negative figure [2]. - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing rose from 8.4% in March to 8.7% in April, while M2's growth rate increased from 7.0% in March to 8.0% in April. Seasonal adjustments show that the annualized month-on-month growth rates for both social financing and M2 exceeded 9%, indicating a robust performance [2]. Group 2: Credit Growth and Local Debt Replacement - New credit in April was 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 730 billion yuan from the same month last year, with the year-on-year growth rate declining from 7.4% to 7.2%. However, adjustments for local debt replacement suggest that the actual year-on-year growth rate for credit may be around 8.0%, consistent with March [3]. - Fiscal deposits grew by 21.5% year-on-year in April, the highest since Q1 2022, indicating that existing fiscal expansion policies have not yet fully materialized. The rapid pace of fiscal bond issuance compared to disbursement progress is a key factor [3]. Group 3: Loan Rates and Internal Financing Demand - The new corporate loan interest rate fell to 4.2% in April, a decrease of 10 basis points from March, with a cumulative decline of 23 basis points since the beginning of the year. This decline occurred without any interest rate cuts, suggesting that internal financing demand still requires recovery [4]. - The growth rate of medium- to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector dropped to 8.5% in April, marking the lowest level since 2020 and the first time it fell below the overall medium- to long-term loan growth rate for all enterprises in the past five years [4]. Group 4: Policy Implementation and Economic Impact - Short-term, existing policies need to be implemented, and attention should be paid to the evolution of household balance sheets and their economic impact. The current low loan interest costs suggest that reducing non-interest costs is crucial for lowering overall financing costs [5]. - The recovery of household net assets in Q1 may provide a boost to the economy if it continues into Q2. Favorable conditions include the narrowing gap between rental yields and mortgage rates, which may stabilize housing prices, while adverse conditions include income expectations and real estate supply-demand dynamics [5].