Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates a broadening bull market, shifting focus from mega-cap tech to under-owned small-cap sectors, with a strong conviction in small-cap stocks for the upcoming year [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP is projected to grow at 2.6% for 2026, supporting the transition towards small-cap stocks as a high-conviction strategy [2][8]. - A "run it hot" economy is expected to sustain equity prices, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks due to lower interest rates and increased demand from GDP growth [3][4]. Small-Cap Performance - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF has risen 17% since its November low, outperforming the S&P 500, which only gained 1.9% [6]. - The S&P Small Cap Index is experiencing its best earnings revisions breadth since August (+7%) and strongest EPS growth since 2022 (+10%) [7]. Market Dynamics - The removal of Chairman Jerome Powell and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who may adopt a more dovish monetary policy, have contributed to a rally in small-cap stocks [5]. - Market breadth is improving, indicating positive momentum across various sectors, which is historically favorable for the stock market [8]. Earnings Momentum - Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is projected at 13%, with 59% of companies reporting results, indicating a potential for a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth [8]. Valuation Trends - Mega-cap technology's revenue growth expectations are at a multi-decade high of 18%, yet forward P/E ratios have decreased to 27, placing them in the 12th percentile since early 2003 [8].

Hello everyone. Inflation is crashing. The Fed nominee wants to strike a deal with the Treasury.Record tax refunds are starting to hit consumer pockets. And Jensen Hong says that we are going through a generational buildout of infrastructure. We are live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. Right now, we have 43,516 of you there.Hit the subscribe button and let's get into today's episode. All righ ...

Market Overview - The US markets are experiencing a mixed picture with the Dow down over 150 points and the S&P 500 slightly down, while the Nasdaq shows a minor bounce [2][4] - The upcoming week is significant for markets with jobs and inflation data expected, which will be closely monitored by investors [8] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors are under pressure, while the technology sector is rebounding [5] - Energy is noted as the best-performing group this year, also seeing a bounce [6] Software and Technology Stocks - Software stocks experienced a sharp sell-off recently but showed a strong rebound, indicating they were deeply oversold [10] - Companies like Oracle and Microsoft are mentioned positively, while others like Adobe and ServiceNow are still under pressure [6][7] Economic Indicators - The market is focused on the January jobs report and inflation data, with expectations of a stabilizing labor market [21][22] - Estimates suggest AI capital expenditure could add approximately 1.5% to GDP growth by 2026, indicating potential economic benefits from AI investments [15] Healthcare Industry - The healthcare sector has faced a $100 billion selloff due to new proposals from the Trump administration aimed at reducing federal funding for health insurers [108] - The expiration of subsidies for ACA plans is expected to lead to an average increase of about $1,000 per year for those purchasing insurance through exchanges, with over a million people already leaving these exchanges [111][112] Women's Sports Investment - Women's sports are seen as a significant financial opportunity, with institutional investment increasing and a focus on building sustainable business models [41][47] - The ecosystem around women's sports is being developed to ensure profitability and support for athletes, with investments in various leagues and related businesses [50][53]

Joining us right now is Muhammad Ali and chief economic adviser at Aliance, also a warden professor. Muhammad, we're all trying to make sense of these markets. Last week uh for a moment seemed like a blood bath, then things turned around.We got Bitcoin. We're all trying to make sense of of what's exactly happening here. What is happening in your mind.>> So, last week was mainly technical, Andrew. It was a deleveraging that started in the most speculative parts of the market, um silver, Bitcoin, etc. and sta ...

President Trump telling NBC News he's proud of the US economy and that 2026 is going to be even better. Joining us right now is White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset. Uh good morning to you.There's been a a long sort of back and forth uh about the state of our economy, about how good it is, but also maybe how bad it is and the bad part being what came before during the Biden administration and whether the president now owns this uh this economy. Does the president now officially own th ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nifty PSU Bank index has reached a new high, driven by strong performance from State Bank of India (SBI), which reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3FY26, leading to increased investor demand for public sector banks [1][2]. Performance of Nifty PSU Bank Index - The Nifty PSU Bank index surged 3.6% to a new high of 9,193, surpassing its previous high of 9,175.55 [3]. - Over the past month, the index has outperformed the market with a 7% increase compared to a 0.5% gain in the Nifty 50 [3]. - In the last five months, the PSU Bank index has increased by 34%, while the benchmark index rose by only 3.8% [3]. Individual Stock Performance - SBI shares rose by 7% to reach ₹1,137 during intra-day trading [5]. - Other notable performers included Indian Bank (+4% to ₹904.85), Bank of India (+3.5% to ₹169.38), Bank of Maharashtra (+3% to ₹67.44), and Central Bank of India (+3% to ₹37.95) [5]. SBI's Financial Performance - SBI reported a 25% year-on-year growth in profit after tax, amounting to ₹21,028 crore for Q3FY26, marking its highest-ever quarterly profit [6]. - The bank's net interest income (NII) grew by 9% year-on-year to ₹45,190 crore, with a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.99% [7]. - Loan book growth was reported at 15.6% year-on-year, while deposits increased by 9% year-on-year [7]. Management Guidance and Market Outlook - SBI's management has raised its credit growth guidance for FY26 to 13-15% from the previous 12-14% [8]. - Analysts expect a healthy credit environment, with improved asset quality and benign credit costs [9]. - Brokerages have raised their earnings estimates for SBI, with target prices set at ₹1,300 and ₹1,250, reflecting strong growth and profitability expectations [9][11]. Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has noted improving GDP growth and expects urban consumption to remain resilient due to policy measures and infrastructure spending [12]. - The RBI has raised its GDP forecast for FY26 to 7.4% and for Q1FY27/Q2FY27 to 6.9%/7.0% [13].

The US government's move to cut tariffs on Indian goods is likely to benefit several sectors especially gems & jewellery, textiles, and marine products, which faced drop in exports to the US in the first eight months of this fiscal year.Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump announced that US tariffs on Indian goods would be lowered to 18% from 50%. While the US cut a 25% reciprocal tariff to 18%, it removed a 25% penal tariff for India's purchases of Russian oil. The tariffs, imposed l ...

Economic Growth and Policy - The current economic agenda is focused on pro-growth measures, including tax cuts for consumers and businesses, lower interest rates, and significant deregulation aimed at reversing the regulatory framework established after the global financial crisis [3][4]. - The budget deficit has reportedly decreased by approximately $90 billion compared to January of the previous year, indicating a period of growth that is generating higher tax revenues [4]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - Recent manufacturing data shows a notable improvement, with the Institute for Supply Managers reporting strong new orders and production figures, suggesting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][10]. - The negative impact of tariffs on manufacturing has diminished, leading to a resurgence in growth within the sector, aided by immediate expensing of capital equipment [10]. Future Economic Outlook - There is optimism for GDP growth in 2026, with expectations of a growth spurt occurring in the latter half of 2025 as well [5][7]. - The appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman is anticipated to positively influence economic conditions, with a focus on achieving high growth alongside low inflation [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic forecasts and trends affecting global markets, particularly focusing on GDP growth and inflation rates across various regions including the US, Euro area, and China [4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global GDP Growth**: Expected to be 2.9% year-over-year in 2026, driven by fading US tariffs and rising real income growth [4][5]. - **US Economic Outlook**: Anticipated real GDP growth of 2.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, supported by tax cuts and easing financial conditions, despite trade policy uncertainties [4][5]. - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation in the US is projected to decline to 2.1% year-over-year by the end of 2026, as tariff impacts diminish and wage/shelter inflation trends improve [4][5]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to implement two 25 basis point cuts in 2026, leading to a terminal rate range of 3-3.25% [4][5]. - **Euro Area Growth**: Projected real GDP growth of 1.2% year-over-year in 2026, with inflation expected to decline to 1.8% due to lower energy prices and a stronger Euro [4][5]. - **China's Economic Performance**: Forecasted real GDP growth of 4.8% year-over-year in 2026, bolstered by resilient export growth and government policy easing, despite sluggish domestic demand [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including US-China relations and developments in Venezuela and the Middle East, pose significant risks to economic stability [5]. - **Commodity Price Forecasts**: LME aluminum price forecasts have been raised to $3150/$2965/$2435 per metric ton for 3/6/12 months, reflecting a balanced global market that supports high prices without rapid production increases [1]. - **Unemployment Rates**: The unemployment rate in the US is expected to stabilize at 4.5% by the end of 2026 [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic outlook and potential investment implications across various regions and sectors.

Summary of Key Points from the 2026 Global Macro Conference on China Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Chinese economy, policy, and markets, reflecting the views of both domestic and global investors regarding China's economic outlook and key issues affecting the market [5][6]. Core Insights 1. **GDP Growth Expectations**: - Over two-thirds of investors anticipate China's official real GDP growth for 2026 to be between 4.6% and 4.9%. The baseline scenario predicts a growth of 4.8%, which is above the Bloomberg consensus of 4.5% due to resilient export growth and policy easing [6][10]. - More than half of the investors expect annualized real GDP growth to be 4-5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), an increase from last year's expectation of 3-4% [6][16]. 2. **PPI Deflation Outlook**: - 82% of investors believe that PPI deflation will end in 2027 or later, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards caution compared to last year [6][12]. - The baseline forecast expects PPI inflation to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026, turning positive by late 2026 or early 2027 [6][12]. 3. **Real Estate Market Predictions**: - Only 7% of investors expect house prices to bottom out in 2026, while 34% predict this will happen in 2027, and nearly 60% expect it to occur in or after 2028 [6][18]. 4. **RMB Exchange Rate Expectations**: - More than 90% of investors expect the RMB to appreciate against the USD this year, with a target range of 6.8-7.0 [6][14]. - Last year, only 3% of attendees anticipated the USDCNY to fall below 7.0 by the end of 2025 [9][14]. 5. **Equity Market Outlook**: - Over 90% of investors expect the China equity market price index to increase by at least 10% in 2026, aligning with the equity strategy team's views [9][23]. - However, research indicates that a stock market rally may have limited impact on household consumption, benefiting only a specific subgroup of the population [9]. 6. **Geopolitical Concerns**: - Investors expressed heightened concerns regarding geopolitical risks and military conflicts compared to other factors such as fiscal sustainability and US-China tensions [9][25]. Additional Important Insights - Domestic investors showed more confidence in China's export resilience, while foreign investors were more cautious about sustainability [8]. - Key topics of interest during client meetings included expectations for the "Two Sessions," property market policies, and consumption boosting measures [8]. - The majority of investors believe that central bank surprises this year may come from the US and Japan rather than China, with expectations of two 10 basis point cuts in the PBOC policy rate in 2026 [9][20]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference, highlighting the evolving perspectives on China's economic landscape and investor sentiment.