Bond Market Analysis - Two-year Treasury yields show more aggressive upside holding after data release [1] - Ten-year Treasury yield faces resistance around 419 to 420, a level dating back nearly two weeks [2] - A settlement above 419 on the ten-year yield would represent a three and a half month high [2] Economic Indicators - Dollar Index initially rose upon data release at 8:30 but the general picture remains unchanged [3] - A close below 9814 on the Dollar Index would mark a two and a half month low [3] - The speaker expresses skepticism about reaching a 2% inflation rate [3] - Conflicting inflation reports exist, with some indicating hot inflation and others indicating cool inflation [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence data is dismissed due to perceived media and administration influence [5]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.3% [1] - Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, following a contraction of 0.6% in the first quarter, indicating a 2.5% annualized growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] GDP Components - The increase in real GDP in the third quarter was driven by higher consumer spending, exports, and government spending, although this was partially offset by a decrease in investment [5] - Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose by 3% in the third quarter, slightly above the 2.9% increase in the second quarter [8] Inflation Metrics - The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.4% in the third quarter, up from a 2% increase in the second quarter [9] - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% in the third quarter, compared to a 2.1% increase in the prior quarter [9] Future Estimates - The third-quarter GDP figure is subject to revision, with the final estimate scheduled for release on January 22 [12][14]

Faster GDP growth points to risks—and rewards—ahead. ...

GDP growth now at 4.3% annualized.The economic boom is here. ...

U.S. stocks traded mixed this morning, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining around 0.2% on Tuesday.Following the market opening Tuesday, the Dow traded down 0.01% to 48,357.98 while the NASDAQ jumped 0.19% to 23,473.74. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.15% to 6,888.53.Check This Out: Meta Platforms To $815? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For TuesdayLeading and Lagging SectorsCommunication services shares rose by 0.9% on Tuesday.In trading on Tuesday, consumer staples stocks fell by 0.4%.Top HeadlineU.S. GD ...

The stock market's end-of-year run took a pause after a strong GDP reading sent bond yields spiking. Inflation-adjusted third-quarter GDP growth rose at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, which was well ahead of expectations for 3% growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 24 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 was up 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.1%. The S&P 500 is off about 0.2% from its Dec. 11 closing high. ...

Group 1 - The core sentiment regarding junk bonds is becoming increasingly positive, suggesting a favorable economic climate for these assets heading into 2026 [2] - BNP Paribas anticipates a slowdown in GDP growth to a range of 1.5% to 2%, which is seen as supportive for high-yield bonds [3][7] - The Neuberger Berman Flexible Credit Income ETF (NBFC) has a significant allocation of 39.6% to non-investment grade bonds, indicating its focus on junk bonds while maintaining a diversified credit approach [4][5] Group 2 - The actively managed nature of NBFC allows for flexible adjustments in non-investment grade allocations based on market conditions, which can enhance credit quality [5] - High-yield corporate bonds do not necessarily require strong equity market performance to achieve good returns, making them potentially attractive in a modest growth environment [6][7] - There is a growing demand for higher quality junk bonds, particularly those with potential for upgrades, which aligns with NBFC's strategy of allocating over 30% to the highest non-investment ratings [8]

All right, Tom. So, 2023 we turned in 24%. 2024 we turned in 23%.Pretty good this year, too. 17%. Next year, we fill in the blank with what sounds reasonable to you.>> Um, I think it's still possible to have a double digit year. There have been 12 times in the last 100 years where markets posted three years of 20% gains. This year hasn't finished yet.um globally half the time markets do even better in the following year. So I think next year is a year where the debate's going to be is the bull cycle over or ...

join us now. Looks like he swallowed a caneric count counselor to to uh the Treasury Secretary Joe Leavia. You might actually know things instead of just being conjecturing what you heard this discussion.>> Yeah, I mean there are four great candidates. I mean the street is very familiar with all four and they would all be very good and I think Steve is exactly correct. The secretary is done a very thorough process and is going to give the president that list. He's given the president the list and it's the p ...

Economic Outlook - Navellier predicts U.S. GDP growth will exceed 5% in 2026, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts and increased investments in domestic production [2][24] - The Federal Reserve has reduced the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter percentage point at each of the past three meetings to support the jobs market [1][12] AI Investment Impact - AI spending is projected to significantly contribute to economic growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating hyperscalers will spend $533 billion in 2026, a 34% increase from 2025 [15] - Bank of America forecasts spending on AI data centers to rise from $243 billion in 2025 to $415 billion in 2026, indicating a robust investment trend [16] Trade and Manufacturing - The U.S. trade deficit improved to -$52.8 billion in September, its lowest level since early 2020, which is expected to provide a GDP tailwind as more production is brought back to the U.S. [11][9] - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) includes incentives for capital spending, encouraging domestic manufacturing and investment [7][8] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation concerns appear exaggerated, with November CPI inflation at 2.7%, down from 3% in September, suggesting a more favorable environment for economic growth [19][20] - Bank of America projects core PCE inflation for 2026 to be around 3.1% in Q1, which may lead to further interest rate cuts if unemployment remains high [21][22][23] Overall Economic Growth Drivers - Economic growth is expected to be supported by onshoring and data center growth, with lower interest rates likely stimulating interest rate-sensitive sectors such as automotive and housing [24]