SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's central bank projected on Thursday that inflation will hover near the official goal in the first quarter of 2028, but still fail to meet it, according to the bank's latest quarterly monetary policy report. After projecting earlier this month annual inflation at 3.4% for the first quarter of 2027, the relevant horizon for policy decisions, policymakers unveiled a 3.1% forecast for the first quarter of 2028, the final period covered by the report. The bank targets inflation ...

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Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's commentary and economic data will be crucial this week, particularly regarding potential aggressive rate cuts and their impact on the economy [2][4][5] - The Fed's summary of economic projections indicates a higher GDP growth expectation, which contrasts with the aggressive rate cut trajectory [4][5][6] Market Trends - The equity market may experience upward momentum if rate cuts are implemented, despite inflation concerns, as long as economic growth outpaces inflation [7][8] - Consumer staples have shown a bearish trend recently, with significant support levels being tested, indicating a potential rotation into more offensive sectors [10][11][12] Company Focus - Costco is highlighted as a key company to watch this week, as its performance may provide insights into consumer economic growth and margin maintenance amid tariff pressures [13][14] Commodity Insights - Gold and silver prices are rising, driven by inflationary pressures and the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, with gold reaching record highs [15][16] - Silver is positioned as a catch-up trade with industrial and inflationary properties, potentially benefiting from global economic growth [17][18][19]

Manica, what are you hearing on the ground from the bank which hires a lot of foreign talent on that H-1B visa. Hi, it's nice to connect again. You know, it's been a dramatic weekend and I was talking to JP Morgan's top leadership exactly about the impact that this new H1B visa rule will have on hiring in the US and whether it will result in more offshoring um which can have a counter impact here in India.And so this is what the Apac CEO of JP Morgan told me about the total cost in terms of this H-1B visa a ...

Group 1 - The equity markets are reaching new highs, indicating a market adjustment to tariffs, but potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs could impact the U.S. debt load [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut its overnight lending rate, yet bond yields are rising, suggesting a complex market response [2][3] - Mortgage rates are nearing their lowest in a year, influenced by lower inflation and the Fed's movement towards a neutral stance [3] Group 2 - Tariffs are generating record revenue, contributing to a more sustainable fiscal position for the U.S., which may lead to lower interest rates over time [4][15] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has been criticized for its low estimates of potential GDP growth, which contradicts observed economic indicators such as strong blue-collar wage growth and capital expenditure recovery [12][13] - The CBO projects that tariffs could reduce deficits by $4 trillion over a decade, highlighting their significance in fiscal planning [15]

Join us now with his reaction to the Fed's decision and chairman Pal's comments. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, you're okay, right. You you were enjoying things.You're you're getting your thoughts together uh and everything. Hopefully the guy with the lawnmower is uh is not coming out today. Kevin, >> that was funny last week.>> Unbelievable. Um 25 basis points. Um it's a start.How what how do you view that. You know, my old friend Alan Greenspan used to say that monetary policy steering i ...

Join us now with his reaction to the Fed's decision and chairman Pal's comments. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset. You're okay, right.You you were enjoying things. You're you're getting your thoughts together uh and everything. Hopefully the guy with the lawnmower is uh is not coming out today.Kevin, >> that was funny last week. >> Unbelievable. Um 25 basis points.Um it's a start. How what what how do you view that. You know, my old friend Alan Greenspan used to say that monetary policy steer ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections indicate a limited path for interest rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a resilient economy and persistent inflation [1][2]. Economic Projections - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is expected to decline to 3.4% by the end of 2026, which is only a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the 3.6% projected for the end of 2025 [2]. - The Fed has revised its outlook for real GDP growth in 2026 upward to 1.8%, indicating a stronger economy than previously anticipated [4]. - The projection for PCE inflation has been increased to 2.6%, which supports the Fed's decision to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period [5]. Internal Divisions - There is significant disagreement within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the future path of interest rates, with some members advocating for rate hikes while others suggest substantial cuts [6]. - The wide range of opinions among FOMC members is evident in the 2025 projections, contributing to a cautious outlook for 2026 [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's policy decision, the stock market exhibited mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declining, while the Dow Jones index increased [8]. - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.12% to $659.18, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) decreased by 0.20% to $590.00 [8].

While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated.In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly r ...

Economic Indicators - The core PCE number, which the Fed focuses on, is expected to remain close to 3%, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [3] - Recent inflation data suggests that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but an additional rate cut this year has been added, increasing the total expectation to three cuts [7] Labor Market - There is clear evidence of a weakening labor market, with an ongoing rise in the unemployment rate, which could lead to downward pressure on wages and alleviate inflation concerns in the future [5][4] Market Sentiment - Despite inflation concerns, bullish sentiment in the market is likely to continue, supported by new all-time highs in both the US and overseas markets [6][8] - Investors appear to be looking for reasons to sell stocks, but the current conditions may continue to support and propel stock prices [8] Consumer Impact - The impact of economic conditions on working-class consumers in Q4 is critical, with wealth gains primarily accruing to upper-income consumers rather than lower-income ones [9][10] - Price pressures may persist into the holiday shopping season due to tighter inventories, influenced by tariffs [11] Home Furnishings Sector - The home furnishings subindustry, including companies like Wayfair and RH, has performed strongly, driven by lower rates and increased consumer spending on home upgrades [12]