FICC Research Economics 13 June 2025 US Outlook Much too early for a Fed pivot Although May's inflation estimates were soft, we retain our view that it is just a matter of time until cost-push pressures from tariffs feed through to consumer prices. We doubt the FOMC will take much signal, with next week's projections likely to show one fewer cut this year than in March. May inflation data show little imprint from tariffs, yet Core CPI rose just 0.13% m/m (2.8% y/y), much less than expected (Barclays: 0.27%; ...

I mean, Brian, 50% off the April low is Nvidia. The other Mag 7 stocks aren't quite that big, but they're big. Meta 37 1.5% off the April low.Microsoft 35, Amazon Alphabet are 27 and 22, respectively. You know, Apple's been lackluster relative to a lot of other names in this group, but even that stock's up 15% from the April low. Are you poised to believe Roth Capital and say there's plenty of support that the bull trend is indeed underway.Well, I think the bull trend is underway and we we're very lucky to ...

16 June 2025 | 2:29AM EDT US Economics Analyst June FOMC Preview: A Cautious Take on Tariffs (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-31 ...

boosting the richest by $12,000 a year. Joining us right now is Phil Swagel. He's the director of the Congressional Budget Office.And Phil, let's talk through some of the criticism you've received. Russ Vought said on X that this bill reduces deficits by $1.4% trillion. When you adjust for the CBO's one big gimmick, not using a realistic current policy baseline.Caroline Leavitt said that the CBO assumes long term GDP growth of an anemic 1.8%. And that's absurd. And then you had President Trump himself sayin ...

Our 2025 year-ahead outlook built off two propositions: momentum in the business cycle at the turn of the year was solid, and policy risks were bidirectional. In the subsequent six months that solid momentum has continued, with steady growth in jobs and spending. And as we have gotten more clarity on policy it has been a mixed bag, as expected, but we think tilting in a less growth-friendly way. Most notably, tar- iffs and trade policy have been the biggest driver of our fore- cast revisions. The stagflatio ...

12 June 2025 | 9:22AM EDT US Daily: A Slightly Smaller Tariff Effect (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com G ...

And let's bring in Torston Slock. He is partner and chief economist at Apollo. And Torstston, don't worry.We're not going to ask you to pine on any of the geopolitical stuff. You your job as an economist is to factor in all the costs that we see and establish a conclusion. Here's the reality about the price of oil. We we think about the price of oil when it comes to gasoline.And that's true. About half of a barrel of oil goes into gasoline. But oil goes into a lot of things.Plastics, natural gas, by the way ...

Does President Trump have Jay Powell to thank for that. Look, you know, it's good to see you. Thanks for having me back.You know, look, I think that I think the president has delivered below expectation inflation for four months in a row and every month he's in office. And I think that says something about, you know, about our policies. Our policies push the supply side of the economy out and in doing so, help firms produce more with less.So, you know, I think inflation has been has been very successfully c ...

4 June 2025 | 4:26PM EDT Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts Download PDF | Download PowerPoint To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click "Follow." Changes to flag this week: n Raised our 2025 LME aluminum price forecast to $2,400/mt (from $2,300/mt) to reflect a less severe-than-expected hit to global activity from the trade war but lowered our 2026 price forecast to $2,230/mt (from $2,540/mt) to reflect likely softer balances further out. Watching n Globally, we expect real GDP ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for India's economy, with an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast for CY25 to 6.6% year-over-year, reflecting strong investment growth driven by public capital expenditure [6][11]. Core Insights - India's real GDP growth surged to 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, up from 6.4% in Q4 CY24, surpassing consensus expectations [3][6]. - The growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) was recorded at 6.8% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, an increase from 6.5% in the previous quarter [2][6]. - Strong investment growth was noted, particularly in public capital expenditure, which exceeded revised estimates by 0.1% of GDP for FY25 [6][7]. - The agricultural sector showed growth of 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing and services sectors also demonstrated robust performance [6][7]. - Despite a contraction in private consumption expenditure growth, fixed investment growth rose sharply to 9.4% year-over-year, aided by back-loaded public capex [6][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth in Q1 CY25 was 7.4% year-over-year, with a sequential increase of 2.1% [2][3]. - Nominal GDP growth reached 10.8% year-over-year, up from 10.3% in Q4 CY24 [2][5]. Sector Performance - The agricultural sector grew by 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing growth hit a three-quarter high of 4.8% [6][7]. - Services growth remained strong at 7.3% year-over-year, primarily driven by financial services and real estate [6][7]. Investment Trends - Central government public capex in March increased by 68% year-over-year, significantly contributing to GDP growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued strong rural consumption, although policy uncertainty may dampen future investment growth [6][7].