For all the power it wields over the global economy, America’s Federal Reserve projects remarkable cool. That serenity is now being ruptured, and just as Donald Trump ramps up his attacks on the central bank https://t.co/6isQ6r1iu0Photo: Eyevine https://t.co/fqVAXfrHbm ...

For all the power it wields over the global economy, America’s Federal Reserve projects remarkable cool. That serenity is now being ruptured, and just as Donald Trump ramps up his attacks on the central bank https://t.co/U0OwrxZmhJ ...

LIVE NOW - How The U.S. Controls The Global EconomyCan a country wage war without ever firing a bullet?In this episode of Bankless, we uncover the surprising truth: America’s most powerful weapon isn’t its military - it’s the dollar.Joining us is @edwardfishman, a former State Department official and the author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare. He explains how U.S. sanctions work, why they’re so effective, and what happens when countries try to escape them.--------------TIMESTAM ...

US-China Trade Relations - The US expressed concerns about China's global overcapacity and purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil, which account for approximately 90% of Iran's oil sales [2] - The US also expressed concerns about China selling approximately $15 billion of dual-use technologies to Russia [2] - The US reiterated its trade policy goals of reducing US deficits, increasing manufacturing, and reshoring the economy [3] - The US aims to "derisk" rather than "decouple" from China, focusing on strategic industries like rare earths, semiconductors, and medicines [5] - Discussions included accelerating the flow of rare earth magnets from China to US companies [4] - China had previously blocked all of their rare earth magnets, but now the US is receiving them [17] Trade Imbalances and Tariffs - China's economy is described as the most unbalanced in modern times, with 30% of global manufacturing and a 2% current account surplus of global GDP [13] - The US is tracking an annual trade deficit with China, but it is expected to be at least $50 billion smaller this year [15] - Section 232 investigations on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will be applied globally, without targeting any specific country [16] - Potential tariffs on countries buying sanctioned Russian oil could range from 0% to 500%, with the US Senate considering a bill to grant the president discretion to apply secondary tariffs [37] Potential Tariff Pause and Future Discussions - A potential pause on tariff increases is under discussion, with a possible duration of 90 days [9][42] - If the pause is not extended, tariffs could revert to a 34% level, potentially reaching 80-85% depending on the product [18][20] - Further technical discussions are ongoing between the US and Chinese teams [10] - A phone call between President Xi and President Trump occurred in June, during which President Xi invited President Trump to Beijing [22][23] US Economic Outlook - The US economy is performing well, with the biggest downturn in inflation in four years observed in May [33][34] - The US is expected to receive a minimum of $300 billion in tariff income this year, representing 1% of GDP [41]

Consumer Spending & Economic Outlook - Consumer spending data for June is crucial, with expectations of a soft patch, already evident in retail sales data [1] - Service sector spending, including airlines, hotels, and restaurants, also shows signs of weakness [2] - Demand was pulled forward in anticipation of tariffs, and price increases are impacting consumer spending [3] - There's a bifurcation in consumer behavior, with higher-end consumers and businesses faring better than lower-end consumers who are squeezed by tariffs [5][6][7] Trade & Tariffs - American protectionism is damaging the global economy, potentially reaching a $2 trillion hit by the end of 2027 relative to the pre-trade war path [8][9] - The effective tariff rate is around 17%, the highest since the 1930s, acting as a headwind to global growth [10] - Tariffs are a regressive tax on consumers [7] Capital Spending & Tax Legislation - Tax legislation provides significant accelerated depreciation for capital spending, potentially boosting corporate cash flow [11] - Companies like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and United Rental have indicated that the tax legislation supports their cash flow [12] - Capital spending is underappreciated for its role in creating productivity, profitability, and lifting potential GDP growth [13] - Full CapEx depreciation for 80% of CapEx will be a significant boost to cash flow [11] Monetary Policy & Labor Market - The Fed may not need to cut rates further, as previous rate cuts and tax measures are already providing stimulus [23][24][25] - Improvement in corporate profits into 2026 is expected to lead to a stronger labor market [20] - Capital spending improves profitability through productivity, incentivizing spending on jobs and wages [17]

Economic Impact of Tariffs - Bloomberg Economics 分析了特朗普总统的关税对全球经济造成的损失 [1] - 特朗普总统的 8 月 1 日截止日期临近 [1] Media Coverage - Bloomberg Economics 的分析结果在 Big Take podcast 节目中被讨论 [1]

As President Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline nears, Bloomberg Economics crunched the numbers on what his tariffs have already cost the global economy. @sdonnan joins host @davidgura on today’s Big Take podcast to break it all down. https://t.co/plFU2ThNRe ...

The US and European Union agreed to an understanding that will see the bloc face 15% tariffs on most of its exports, staving off a trade war that could have delivered a hammer blow to the global economy https://t.co/BcACMqfDHX ...

In this week’s episode of Everybody’s Business, we discuss how markets and the global economy would react to the (potentially illegal) ouster of Jerome Powell https://t.co/43HMqYKVhc ...

The past few years have brought a series of crises, from the covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine to an energy shock and a trade war. Somehow, the global economy powers on https://t.co/I872j5F2m3Illustration: https://t.co/QcfrZZCWgL https://t.co/3japgKsZtR ...