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The Global Economy Is Breaking: Crypto Could Be the Escape
Coin Bureau· 2025-09-03 15:00
Global Economic Outlook - 全球经济分裂为通胀和通缩两个极端,给经济带来前所未有的挑战 [2] - G20 国家的通货膨胀率仍然维持在 3.8%,预计至少在 2026 年才能达到中央银行的目标 [4] - 中国面临需求驱动型通缩,房地产市场崩溃导致消费者信心下降 [22][23][24] Inflation Drivers - 疫情后的通货膨胀是由前所未有的财政刺激、供应链混乱和宽松的货币政策同时冲击造成的 [5][6] - 欧洲央行的分析表明,2022 年企业利润占欧元区通货膨胀的三分之二,而历史平均水平为三分之一 [10] - 乌克兰和俄罗斯合计供应全球 30% 的小麦、20% 的玉米和 80% 的葵花籽油,战争扰乱了这些资源流动,导致商品价格上涨 [10][11] - 美联储研究估计,乌克兰战争直接导致 2022 年全球通货膨胀增加 1.3 个百分点,相当于全球经济额外增加 1.3 万亿美元的成本 [12] Deflationary Pressures in China - 中国房地产市场占经济的 30%,占家庭财富的 70%,房地产价格下跌 15% 到 30% 不等 [23] - 中国现在生产了全球 70% 的太阳能电池板、60% 的电动汽车和 75% 的电池,国内需求疲软导致产能过剩,只能以极低的价格出口 [25][26] - 摩根大通估计,中国的通货紧缩可能会使全球核心商品通货膨胀率降低 70 个基点 [31] Central Bank Policies and Divergence - 美联储在 18 个月内将利率从 0% 提高到 5.5%,这是 40 年来最快的紧缩周期 [20] - 中国人民银行正在放松货币政策,但由于信心不足和债务负担沉重,效果不佳 [41] - 各国央行政策分化,美国和欧洲的债券可能因降息而上涨,而中国的债券收益率受到抑制,日本的收益率则在几十年后首次上升 [43] Structural Inflationary Forces - 气候变化导致干旱摧毁农作物,洪水破坏供应链,热浪屠杀牲畜,所有这些都导致食品价格上涨 [35][36] - 能源转型需要大量的铜、锂、钴和稀土,对这些材料的需求正在爆炸式增长,而供应仍然受限 [37] - 由于对石油和天然气的投资减少,传统能源供应变得更加紧张,任何地缘政治冲击都会导致价格飙升 [37] Crypto Market Implications - 持续的通货膨胀,但又不足以触发 20% 的利率,对加密货币来说是一个有利的环境 [45] - 中国经济面临通缩,促使富裕的中国人寻求在中国大陆以外的价值储存手段,加密货币提供了一个后门 [46] - 各国央行政策分化造成波动和不确定性,这正是加密货币作为一种非相关资产发光发热的时候 [46][47]
Nordea Bank (NBNK.F) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-09-03 10:02
Summary of Nordea Economic Outlook Webinar Industry Overview - The webinar discusses the **Nordea Economic Outlook**, focusing on global economic trends, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, and their implications for the Nordic countries [2][32]. Key Points and Arguments Global Economic Trends - **U.S. Trade Agreements**: The uncertainty regarding the global economy has decreased as the U.S. has reached trade agreements with major countries, with the effective U.S. tariff rate expected to stabilize between **15% and 20%** [2][3]. - **Economic Slowdown**: The U.S. economy is anticipated to slow down, while Europe may experience better economic conditions, especially if a peace agreement in Ukraine is reached [3][10]. - **Inflation Control**: Inflation is under control in most countries, but it is expected to rise in the U.S. due to tariff policies, potentially impacting monetary policy [4][11]. Nordic Economic Outlook - **Diverging Growth**: The Nordic countries are experiencing diverging economic paths, with strong growth in Norway and Denmark, while Sweden and Finland are lagging [3][14]. - **Domestic Demand Recovery**: There are good opportunities for a strong recovery in domestic demand across the Nordic countries, despite uncertainties in global trade [4][19]. - **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence in the U.S. is declining, which poses risks to economic growth, while Europe shows signs of stabilization [13][14]. Trade and Exports - **Impact of Tariffs**: The new U.S. tariff regime is expected to have a limited impact on Nordic growth, as these countries are not heavily reliant on the U.S. as an export market [17][18]. - **Export Performance**: Nordic exports to the U.S. have not significantly declined, with Denmark's trade surplus with the U.S. increasing recently [18][19]. Monetary Policy and Financial Markets - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates once, while the European Central Bank is anticipated to halt cuts and may consider hikes in the future [27][28]. - **Bond Yields**: Long-term bond yields are expected to rise, reflecting increasing pressure on financial markets [29][33]. Economic Forecasts - **Global Growth Projections**: The global economy is projected to grow by **3.1%** this year, with the U.S. economy slowing to around **2%** [22][23]. - **Nordic Growth Rates**: Denmark is forecasted to grow by **2.3%** next year, while Sweden is expected to see growth of **2.5%** in 2024 [24][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Fiscal Expansion in Europe**: Fiscal expansion in Europe, particularly in defense and infrastructure, is expected to stimulate growth [10][24]. - **Housing Market Trends**: Rising house prices in Denmark and Norway may boost consumer confidence, while Finland's housing market remains weak [21][22]. - **Volatility in Financial Markets**: Financial markets have shown a significant decrease in volatility since earlier in the year, indicating a more stable outlook [5][32]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Nordea Economic Outlook webinar, highlighting the current economic landscape and future expectations for both global and Nordic economies.
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-09-02 13:39
Overview - Bloomberg New Economy tracks and unpacks the global economy for global leaders [1] - Bloomberg New Economy aims to influence global change [1] Event Information - Bloomberg New Economy summit will be held from November 19-21 [1]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-30 09:18
What happened to the global economy this week — in charts https://t.co/3EEatxHEEA ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-23 09:48
Global Economy Overview - The report provides a summary of global economic events presented in charts [1] - The report focuses on key economic indicators and trends [1]
Why Remitly's Digital Model Could Deliver Big Upside
Seeking Alpha· 2025-08-22 17:53
Economic Overview - The global economy is currently facing challenges, including weak manufacturing activity and escalating government debt [1] - Consumer stress is becoming evident in various economic indicators [1] Analyst Insights - Saba Sadiq, a psychologist with a keen interest in finance, emphasizes the importance of a data-driven approach to guide investors through market uncertainties [1]
Will Widening Metal Tariffs Lead to Inflation?
Bloomberg Television· 2025-08-19 23:52
From your perspective, how does this demonstrate to us just how wide reaching his tariff policies are. When you think about these tariffs in particular being enacted under Section 232 on the basis of national security concerns. Thank you, Tyler, for having me.And you're right, there is a bigger picture here. I mean, directly, this is going to contribute to inflation. It's going to make things more expensive for other businesses, more expensive for consumers.And if it doesn't get passed through fully to infl ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-16 09:18
What happened to the global economy this week — in charts https://t.co/n6DReYK79R ...
X @Sei
Sei· 2025-08-14 23:49
Stablecoin Potential - Stablecoins are poised to revolutionize the dollar's role, similar to the internet's impact on information dissemination [1] - Stablecoins offer programmability, borderless transactions, and accessibility, creating a link to the global economy [1] Infrastructure and Adoption - Scalable infrastructure is crucial as stablecoin adoption increases globally [1] - Sei network facilitates faster stablecoin transactions ($/acc) [1]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-11 19:15
US economic data has shortcomings, but try living without it, says @Moss_Eco. The global economy would fly blind (via @opinion) https://t.co/zPbFjRvn3i ...