UK households’ inflation expectations hit the highest level in two years, a setback for the BOE in its battle to keep price pressures under control https://t.co/mhqpJgVfZz ...

Monetary Policy & Fed Credibility - The Fed's credibility is at risk if political pressure influences rate cuts, potentially clouding public perception of their decision-making [1] - While individual members are focused on their responsibilities, communication challenges arise due to external pressures [2] - Maintaining anchored long-run inflation expectations is critical for the committee's work [6] Inflation Concerns & Challenges - The Fed faces a significant challenge in keeping consumer inflation expectations anchored, especially given the difficulty in consistently achieving the 2% target [5] - Upside risks to inflation exist, and the committee emphasizes the importance of well-anchored long-run inflation expectations [6] - Consumer and business sentiments diverge regarding inflation expectations, creating uncertainty about future inflation [7] - Inflation is already above the Fed's target, and tariff effects further complicate disentangling the drivers of inflation [8] - The committee faces the challenge of keeping its credibility and inflation expectations anchored amidst uncertainty about the impact of tariffs [11] Tariffs & Economic Impact - Tariffs' impact on prices is viewed as potentially fleeting but the possibility of a persistent impact is not ruled out [9] - The discretionary implementation of tariffs by country makes it difficult to assess their impact on inflation [10] - Significant uncertainty exists regarding the economic outlook [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Tightening immigration policy impacts the labor market, potentially leading to higher labor costs for firms [13] - Wage impact and price effects are interconnected, influencing companies' decisions on cost pass-through and worker compensation [14] - The labor market is reacting to both supply and demand factors, contributing to the current unemployment rate [15] - Understanding the dynamics affecting both price inflation and labor rates is crucial for the Fed's decision-making [15]

The results of our measure of “inflation entrenchment”, which ranks ten rich countries on five indicators (core inflation, unit labour costs, inflation dispersion, inflation expectations and Google-search behaviour), reveal a linguistic divide https://t.co/NRS99MyjRv ...

It does look like it's getting worse. The picture is getting worse, both in terms of confidence and in terms of inflation expectations. Am I reading that correctly.That's right. Overall, consumer views have worsened over the last month and have partially reversed some of the improvements that we had seen in June and July. Overall, consumers are seeing a worsening outlook for unemployment, for inflation.A lot of this is being driven by what they're seeing around them in terms of high prices right now. We had ...

Joining us now is Frederick Michigan, former Federal Reserve Governor and currently an economics professor at Columbia University. Uh Frederick, great to see you. What what crossed your mind when you saw this PPI number this morning.How much of this is clearly tariffs and how much does it complicate the narrative that well the Fed of course has to cut in September and then we'll continue. So I don't put a huge amount of weight on a PPI uh particular number. It's very volatile.Uh however, even before this, I ...

US consumer inflation expectations rose in July and perceptions of the job market improved, according to a monthly Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey https://t.co/CQixboahOV ...

Summary of Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Labor Market Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economy, specifically consumer confidence and labor market conditions as indicated by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [1][4]. Key Points 1. **Consumer Confidence Index**: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from an upwardly revised 95.2, driven by an increase in the expectations sub-index, which went up to 74.4 from 69.9 [3][4]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment Improvement**: Consumer sentiment has shown improvement from recent lows, with inflation expectations decreasing, which has positively influenced business and income expectations for the next six months [4][5]. 3. **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: Despite the improvement, confidence indices remain below the levels at the beginning of the year and pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that consumers may continue to be cautious in their spending decisions [4][5]. 4. **Labor Market Differential**: The labor market differential, which measures the difference between respondents saying jobs are hard to get versus those saying jobs are plentiful, has been on a downward trend, indicating a loosening labor market. A larger share of respondents reported that jobs are hard to get in July, supporting forecasts for an increase in the unemployment rate [5][6]. 5. **Spending Growth**: Hard spending data indicates that consumer spending growth is slowing compared to last year, and this trend may continue [4][5]. Additional Insights - **Inflation Expectations**: The decline in inflation expectations has been a significant factor in improving business and income outlooks, although the overall consumer confidence remains cautious [4][5]. - **Unemployment Rate Forecast**: The report supports a forecast for an increasing unemployment rate due to the rising number of respondents indicating difficulty in finding jobs [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the essential findings and insights from the Conference Board report, highlighting the current state of consumer confidence and labor market conditions in the U.S. economy.

LINE ANNOUNCER: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY." WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY, PLUS BUSINESS AND FINANCE AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, YOUTUBE, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. TIM: GOOD AFTERNOON.LIVE ON BLOOMBERG TV, RADIO, YOUTUBE, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. I AM TIM STENOVEC. THAT IS SONALI BASAK IN FOR CAROL MASSAR.IT IS GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE. WELCOME. ...

Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reached 61.8 in July, a five-month high [1] - The index is still 16% below December 2024 levels [1] Inflation Expectations - Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased sharply from 5% to 4.4%, the lowest in 2025 [1] - Long-run inflation expectations declined to 3.6% [1]

Market Trends - Declining inflation expectations are positioning South African government bonds for further gains [1] - The rally has already driven benchmark yields to five-year lows [1]