RT Naga Avan-Nomayo (@JeSuisNaga)Prediction markets under scrutiny again, this time from Israeli authorities👀Israeli prosecutors have indicted an IDF reservist and a civilian over alleged insider betting on @Polymarket tied to military operations 🇮🇱Authorities say classified information was used to place wagers, according to local reports.The case adds to a growing global debate around insider activity on event-based markets.In January, U.S. Rep. @RitchieTorres moved to ban prediction market insider trading ...

I've always looked at crypto as a better architecture of finance. Crypto builders are going to build. We're going to build here in the United States and we're going to build overseas, but we're going to build no matter what the government does.Trafi, on the other hand, can't just go overseas. If if we put the American economy on a digital network architecture, we're going to win the next century. We've got to have that legislation, I believe.>> All right. Everyone is very interested and worried about regula ...

Core Insights - Kalshi achieved a record trading volume of over $1 billion on Super Bowl Sunday, marking a 2,700% increase year over year [3][4] - The platform's popularity surged with over $100 million in bets on Bad Bunny's opening song and $45 million on the artists performing with him [3] - Kalshi's CEO highlighted the company's unique model where it benefits when customers win, differentiating it from traditional sportsbooks [5] Company Performance - Kalshi's trading volume during the Super Bowl significantly outperformed last year's total of $27 million [3] - The platform experienced delays in processing deposits due to high traffic, but assured users that their funds were safe [5] Industry Context - Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to trade on various outcomes, distinguishing themselves from traditional gambling by operating under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [4] - The rise in popularity of prediction markets extends beyond sports, with applications in events like the Grammys and Oscars [6] Regulatory and Operational Challenges - Concerns about market manipulation and insider trading have been raised, prompting Kalshi to enhance its surveillance and enforcement efforts [7] - The company has conducted over 200 investigations and referred several cases to law enforcement in response to these concerns [7]

Will the US admit that aliens exist by the end of 2027. On Poly Market, over $1.4% million has been traded on this question. In another trade, someone turned $1 into 20K by betting on the weather.Another user started with about $12, repeatedly betting on Bitcoin's price movements, and walked away with roughly $100,000. These are just a few examples of how prediction markets are turning the world into an online casino. one where you can bet almost on anything.In December alone, nearly $12 billion was traded ...

Core Insights - Brinker International's CFO Michaela M. Ware sold 5,000 shares at a weighted average price of $162.40, totaling approximately $812,000, which represents a 17.74% reduction in her direct ownership stake [1][2][9] Company Overview - Brinker International operates casual dining restaurants, primarily under the Chili's and Maggiano's brands, generating revenue through food and beverage sales [7][8] - The company reported a revenue of $5.7 billion and a net income of $454.1 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - As of February 5, 2026, the company's stock price was $160.64, with a 1-year price change of 0.63% [4] Recent Performance - Fiscal Q2 sales reached $1.5 billion, an increase from $1.4 billion the previous year, with Chili's restaurants achieving 19 consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth, including a 9% increase in Q2 [10] - Following strong performance, Brinker raised its fiscal 2026 full-year guidance to a range of $5.76 billion to $5.83 billion, up from the previous forecast of $5.6 billion to $5.7 billion [10] Market Position - Brinker International is a leading operator in the casual dining segment, leveraging a dual approach of company-owned and franchised locations to maximize market reach and operational flexibility [8] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is currently 17, which is lower than it was a year ago, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors [11]

Core Insights - Viavi Solutions, a technology firm specializing in network testing and optical security, reported a significant insider sale by CEO Oleg Khaykin amid strong stock performance, with shares up 106.1% over the past year [1][4][10] Transaction Summary - Oleg Khaykin sold 70,566 shares for approximately $1.9 million, with a post-transaction direct ownership of 1,708,871 shares valued at about $45.1 million [2][6] - The transaction occurred at a market close price of $26.38, reflecting a weighted average purchase price of $26.27 [2][6] Company Overview - Viavi Solutions has a market capitalization of $6.10 billion and generated $1.24 billion in revenue over the trailing twelve months, although it reported a net loss of $41.7 million [4] - The company experienced a 1-year price change of 106.1%, indicating strong capital appreciation [4] Company Operations - Viavi Solutions provides network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions, including hardware, software, and optical security products across three segments: Network Enablement, Service Enablement, and Optical Security and Performance Products [7][8] - The company serves a diverse customer base, including communications service providers, enterprises, and government agencies, focusing on both legacy and next-generation networks [8][9] Market Context - The sale by Mr. Khaykin does not raise concerns as he retains a significant stake in the company, and the transaction aligns with his historical trading patterns [6][10] - The company's stock reached a 52-week high of $26.83 shortly before the sale, reflecting strong market performance [10][11] - Despite the strong sales growth of 36% year-over-year in the fiscal second quarter, the company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $48.1 million, although this shows significant improvement from the previous year [11]

Core Insights - Verizon executives typically do not sell company stock, but a top executive recently sold thousands of shares following the release of better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings [1] Financial Performance - Verizon reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter, which positively impacted its stock price [1]

Core Insights - Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are offering contracts on which companies will run ads during Super Bowl 60, scheduled for February 8, 2024, in Santa Clara, California [2] - The contracts allow users to trade on specific companies like Salesforce, Verizon, and Coca-Cola securing ad spots during the event [2] - Concerns have arisen regarding potential insider trading, as many employees may have advance knowledge of their company's advertising plans [4] Summary by Category Prediction Market Development - Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced contracts for Super Bowl ad placements, allowing users to engage in trading based on predictions [2] - Polymarket offers a simple "Yes/No" wager structure, while Kalshi provides more complex predictions involving celebrity appearances in ads [3] - Contracts are priced between $0 and $1, with payouts of $1 for winning contracts, minus fees [3] Regulatory Concerns - The rise of prediction markets for Super Bowl ads raises significant regulatory challenges, particularly regarding insider trading [5] - Current laws prohibit insider trading on these markets, but experts doubt the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's ability to effectively regulate them [4] - The situation highlights the broader challenges regulators face in adapting to the rapid evolution of digital markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - A Delaware judge has allowed a shareholder lawsuit alleging insider trading by Coinbase directors to proceed, despite a special committee's prior investigation clearing the defendants [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit, initiated by shareholder Adam Grabski in 2023, claims that Coinbase directors used confidential valuation information to avoid over $1 billion in losses by selling shares during the company's direct listing in April 2021 [2]. - High-profile directors involved include CEO Brian Armstrong and venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who collectively sold more than $2.9 billion in stock during the direct listing [1]. Group 2: Internal Investigation - The special litigation committee, consisting of board members Kelly Kramer and Gokul Rajaram, was found to have conflicts of interest, particularly concerning Rajaram's ties to Andreessen Horowitz, which undermined the committee's independence [3][4]. - Judge McCormick noted that while the internal investigation presented a strong defense for the directors, the substantial business connections between Rajaram and Andreessen raised material disputes regarding Rajaram's independence [2][4]. Group 3: Direct Listing Structure - Coinbase's direct listing allowed existing shareholders to sell shares immediately without the typical lockup periods associated with traditional IPOs, which are designed to prevent insider trading [6].

Company Overview - PBF Energy Inc. is a leading independent refiner with a diversified asset base, operating six oil refineries and related logistics infrastructure, producing resources such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, lubricants, petrochemicals, asphalt, and related petroleum products across the United States, Canada, and Mexico [5] - The company's revenue for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is $29.54 billion, with a net income of -$526.3 million, and a dividend yield of 3.31% [4] Recent Transactions - Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V., a 10% owner of PBF Energy, sold 49,000 shares in two transactions on January 21 and 22, 2026, totaling approximately $1.63 million [1][2] - Post-transaction, the insider holds over 30.3 million shares, which is more than 60 times the amount sold, indicating that the sale accounted for only 0.16% of the insider's direct holdings [2][7] Company Challenges - PBF Energy faced a rough year in 2025, struggling to recover from an explosion at its Martinez, California refinery in February 2025, which has not operated at full capacity since then [6] - The company plans to spend around $600 million on maintenance and turnarounds at its locations, amidst high operating costs and a challenging refinery market, leading to expectations of a net loss for the second consecutive year [7][8] - The company has pushed back its target for the Martinez refinery to resume full operations from the end of 2025 to March 2026 [6]