李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 市场认为今年9月美国会开始减息，机率达75.1%，这也可能是近期全球股票市场炽热的主要原因 (最近留意到香港政府在市场上买港元维持跟美元汇率，可能代表资金回流美国)。美股没崩，导致 市场资金变得更投机和进取，这也可能是近期白银、铂金及铜等开始领跑的主要原因，相反之前 一直强势的黄金却静了下来(但执笔时依然在3300美元上方！) 世界银行早前宣布，预计今年全球经济增长只有2.3%，较今年年初预测的2.8%低。如果他们对未 来2年的经济预测也比较靠谱， 那2020-2027年将会是自1960年以来经济增长最低的年代 。 经济 低增长加上贸易政策，他们相信今年商品的平均价格会同比下跌10%，明年平均值再下跌6%；相 反他们比较看好黄金、白银及铂金类金属，认为 ...

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday described why he likes online used car dealer Carvana, telling investors they can start a small position and wait for a pullback to buy more."I like Carvana for the long-haul because I'm a true believer, but that doesn't mean the stock will charge endlessly higher without taking some detours," he said. "In fact, I hope it gives you a big pullback, because that will let you get back into the stock at a very nice discount."Cramer said the stock "tends to be a real wild trader," bu ...

One analyst thinks it's time to stop selling Stanley stock. I think it might even be time to buy.Shares of Stanley Black & Decker (SWK 3.45%) stock closed 3.4% higher on Tuesday after Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe removed his "underperform" (i.e., sell) rating from the stock, and upgraded shares of the toolmaker stock to peer perform (i.e., neutral). Why Wolfe likes, not loves, Stanley Black & DeckerThis wasn't exactly a full-throated howl of endorsement. Wolfe's analyst didn't feel sufficiently confiden ...

Chile’s consumer prices fell twice as much as expected in June, fueling expectations that the central bank will resume interest rate cuts this month https://t.co/fxVZLYUfoE ...

南华贵金属日报: 剧烈震荡 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月8日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场剧烈震荡。周边资产看，美股下跌，美债收益率与美指皆收涨，比特币下跌，原油上涨， 南华有色金属下跌。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3346.4美元/盎司，+0.1%；美白银2509合约收报于 36.94美元/盎司，-0.39%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报771.3元/克，-0.54%；SHFE白银2508合约收 8872元/千克，-0.5%。 【降息预期与基金持仓 】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，降息25个基点的概率为 4.7%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为35.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为61.8%，累计降息50个基点的 概率为2.9%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率13.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为45.4%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为39.4%，累计降息75个基点的概率为1.8%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓维持在947.66吨； iShares白银ETF持仓维持在 ...

"此前，我曾认为英国经济会软着陆，2025年通胀仍有上行风险，"泰勒在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行 论坛上发表讲话时说。"现在我认为软着陆面临风险，随着需求疲软和贸易混乱的加剧，2026年经济弱 于预期、使我们偏离轨道的可能性增大。"泰勒自9月加入MPC以来，已在七次会议中五度投票赞成降 息。5月会议上他支持大幅降息0.5个百分点，6月会议则支持降息0.25个百分点。他周三告诉彭博电视， 他认为不一定需要更大幅度的降息，不过，由于MPC每年只有八次会议，这对寻求加快宽松步伐的决 策者来说是一个分配问题。自加入MPC以来，泰勒就因清晰传达对利率走势的预期而吸引经济学家关 注，他在讲话中说，MPC如果能找到一种工具来传达对未来利率的看法，将会"受益匪浅"。"第一季的 一些冲击和杂音影响了我对经济和全球发展的看法，基于我对前景不断恶化的解读，我认为我们需要一 条更低的利率路径，在2025年需要降息五次，而不是市场预期的四次逐季降息，"泰勒说。泰勒在演讲 中展示的图表显示，如果他对经济的下行预期成真，明年下半年利率可能降至2.25%左右。英国央行上 个月将利率维持在4.25%不变，投资者目前押注央行将再有两次的降息25 ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 30 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Mid-Year Prospects Consumer Discretionary This report forms part of J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects series as we take stock at the mid-point of 2025 and set out our Top Picks and Least Preferred stocks for the remainder of the year. Top Pick –Harvey Norman (HVN AU, OW) Leverage to housing cycle an earnings tailwind. Harvey Norman offers late- cycle exposure to housing, driven by a category mix which is highly leveraged to housing activity, s ...

Goldman Sachs global chief economist Yan Hatius joins us with his first take on the report looks good from the headlines but as I highlighted earlier beneath the surface you know where the job growth was concentrated why the unemployment rate came down wasn't all that great what do you think true it overstates the strength of the report if you just look at the headline numbers I think on the establishment survey the private sector was pretty soft and the big headline number was really driven by increas piec ...

Poland’s central bank Governor Adam Glapinski pushes back against growing market expectations that a surprise interest rate cut on Wednesday has kicked off an easing cycle https://t.co/hXXQIlQVph ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin Do these numbers take a July interest rate cut off the table?Tune in for live Jobs Day analysis 🎥https://t.co/YQY6XVjGCR ...