Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are experiencing volatility due to disappointing corporate guidance, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic data affecting interest rate outlooks [1][3] - Major indexes have softened after a strong performance led by technology gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 121 points (0.24%) to 49,542, S&P 500 down 13 points (0.19%) to 6,868, and Nasdaq Composite down 43 points (0.18%) to 22,712 [2] Economic Data - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3 in February, significantly above the consensus estimate of 7.7, indicating continued expansion in regional manufacturing [4] - Initial jobless claims fell more than expected, highlighting the strength of the U.S. labor market [4] - Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates too soon, with some suggesting potential rate hikes if inflation persists [5] Corporate News - Walmart reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings but issued a cautious profit forecast for 2026, leading to a more than 3% drop in shares [6] - Nvidia is in focus due to a partnership with Meta Platforms for AI chips, although its stock has moderated ahead of its earnings report [7] - Robinhood Markets shares fell 11% after revenue missed forecasts and high expense outlooks were provided [8] - Moderna's stock rose 6% following FDA review news for its flu vaccine candidate [8] - Exxon Mobil shares increased by 2.9% as crude oil prices rose amid geopolitical tensions [8] - Carvana's stock plummeted over 20% after reporting significant profitability loss in Q4 [8] - Smurfit Westrock shares surged 12% after an encouraging five-year financial forecast despite an earnings miss [8] Upcoming Events - Investors are monitoring "Fedspeak" from officials for monetary policy clues, with a primary focus on the upcoming PCE inflation data [9] - Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are influencing oil prices and the global inflation outlook [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering further interest rate cuts this year, but there is significant internal debate regarding the timing and necessity of such cuts due to persistent inflation concerns [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed's January meeting minutes indicate a division among officials about future rate cuts after three reductions in 2025, with some advocating for caution due to inflation still above the 2% target [1][5]. - While many believe further downward adjustments are necessary if inflation continues to decelerate, some officials express reluctance to cut rates excessively, fearing it could reignite inflation [2][3]. Inflation and Employment - The current inflation rate is slightly above 2.5%, and Fed officials emphasize the importance of maintaining focus on the 2% inflation objective to avoid long-term inflationary pressures [6][8]. - Employment risks have moderated, but concerns remain about the potential for job market deterioration if rates are kept too high [7][9]. Policy Implications - The Fed's decisions on interest rates will significantly impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, highlighting the importance of inflation and employment data in shaping rate expectations [4][8]. - Some Fed officials, including Governors Miran and Waller, have expressed dissent regarding the decision to keep rates unchanged, arguing for the potential to cut rates further given the weak labor market conditions [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts predict that employment growth may slow, which could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains the primary barrier to additional rate cuts [11][12]. - Expectations are for the Fed to potentially cut rates three times later this year, contingent on the evolving economic landscape [12].

Market Overview - US stock futures retreated as fears of US-Iran conflict fueled a jump in oil prices, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures falling about 0.3% [1] - Oil prices saw their biggest daily jump since October, with Brent crude rising above $71 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $66 [2] - Investors are analyzing the Federal Reserve's minutes from January's policy meeting, which indicated divisions over future rate hikes amid persistent inflation [3] Company Earnings - Walmart is set to report earnings, acting as a bellwether for the retail sector [4] - DoorDash reported fourth-quarter results that slightly missed Wall Street expectations, with earnings per share at $0.48 compared to the forecast of $0.55, but adjusted EBITDA rose 38% year over year to $780 million [7][8] - DoorDash's revenue grew 28% year over year to $3.96 billion, slightly below the nearly $4 billion expected, while total orders increased 32% to 903 million [8][9] - For Q1 2026, DoorDash expects marketplace GOV to be between $31.0 billion and $31.8 billion, exceeding the Street's forecast of $30.75 billion [10] Industry Developments - Samsung Electronics' stock surged to a record high as it negotiates a price for its latest AI memory chip, HBM4, which is expected to be priced around $700 per unit, up to 30% higher than the previous generation [4][5] - Samsung has started mass production of HBM4 chips and has shipped commercial products to customers, marking a comeback in the AI chip market [6]

Several Federal Reserve officials anticipate further interest rate cuts if inflation were to drop, while others see holding rates for "some time," according to minutes of the central bank's January policy meeting released Wednesday. "Several commented that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations," the minutes read. Still others thought that more rate cuts may not be needed until ...

Core Viewpoint - Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB) has reached a 52-week high, increasing by 44.54% from its 52-week low of $25.10 per share, indicating strong momentum and potential for further gains [1] Group 1: ETF Overview - FLGB tracks the FTSE UK RIC Capped Index, which is a market-capitalization weighted index representing UK large and mid-cap stocks [2] - The ETF charges an annual fee of 0.09% [2] Group 2: Market Drivers - The FTSE 100, the UK's benchmark index, has reached a record high due to softer domestic inflation data, which has raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England as early as March [3] Group 3: Performance Outlook - FLGB holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold) and has a positive weighted alpha of 30.89, suggesting the possibility of continued strong performance in the near term [4]

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.1% probability of no rate change and a 7.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that interest rates should remain unchanged until officials see clearer evidence that inflation is moving toward the central bank’s 2% target. “I would like to see evidence that goods price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labor market condit ...

Rates for home equity lines of credit and home equity loans are near multi-year lows. With the next Federal Reserve meeting still one month away — and further interest rate cuts not likely soon — second mortgage rates are expected to remain mostly unchanged. HELOC and home equity loan rates: Wednesday, February 18, 2026 Today's national average monthly HELOC rate is 7.23%, down just two basis points from one month ago. The average rate on a home equity loan is 7.44%, down 12 basis points from last month, ...

Economic Outlook - The Bank of England is urged to implement quick interest rate cuts to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis and boost consumer spending and business confidence [1][2] - Trade unions support interest rate cuts, citing easing inflation as beneficial for working families, with expectations of further softening due to government support for energy bills and other costs [2] - Firms are looking for inflation easing to be accompanied by measures to reduce business costs, such as business rates reform, to stimulate economic growth [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 3.0%, the lowest level in nearly a year, indicating potential for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [25][28] - Analysts predict a 25 basis point cut in interest rates at the next Bank of England meeting, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to decline [19][21][20] - Despite the drop in headline inflation, services inflation remains sticky, suggesting caution from the Monetary Policy Committee [22] Market Performance - The FTSE 100 index has reached new record highs, driven by gains in sectors such as mining, defense, and banking [6][15][28] - BAE Systems has reported a 10% increase in sales to £30.7 billion and a record order book of £83.6 billion, reflecting strong demand in the defense sector [23][10] - Glencore's revenue for 2025 increased by 7% to $247.54 billion, with adjusted EBIT falling less than expected, indicating resilience in the mining sector [16][17] Company-Specific Developments - BAE Systems has increased its dividend by 10% and expects sales growth of 7-9% for the current year, supported by rising global defense spending [23][13] - Glencore's performance improved significantly in the second half of the year, aided by stronger metals prices and higher copper output [17] - BAE's free cash flow is projected to exceed £1.3 billion, contributing to a reduction in net debt by 22% [13][24]

Market Performance - US stocks experienced gains, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.4% [1][3] Technology Sector - Technology stocks are showing signs of recovery after a challenging period, particularly for software companies, although investors remain cautious about the long-term effects of AI on business models and competition [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes is anticipated to provide insights into policymakers' perspectives, especially as markets are expecting at least two interest rate cuts this year [3] Earnings Reports - Companies such as DoorDash, eBay, and Analog Devices are scheduled to report their earnings, which may influence market sentiment [3]

Economic Indicators - December capital goods new orders (nondefense ex-aircraft and parts) are expected to increase by +0.4% month-over-month, indicating potential growth in capital spending [1] - January manufacturing production is anticipated to rise by +0.4% month-over-month [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are projected to decline by -2,000 to 225,000 [1] - The December trade deficit is expected to widen to -$86.0 billion [1] - Q4 GDP is expected to expand by +3.0% quarter-over-quarter annualized [1] - The December core PCE price index is expected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year [1] Corporate Earnings - Nearly three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 76% beating expectations [7] - S&P earnings growth is projected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [7] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6% [7] Stock Market Movements - Major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones, reversed earlier losses to trade higher, with the S&P 500 Index up +0.29%, Dow Jones up +0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 Index up +0.38% [6] - Software stocks are experiencing declines amid speculation of AI disruption, with Crowdstrike Holdings down more than -6% and Intuit down more than -5% [12] - Silver and gold mining stocks are falling, with gold prices down more than 3% and silver prices down more than 6% [13] Company-Specific News - Genuine Parts Co is down more than -12% after reporting Q4 net sales of $6.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.06 billion [15] - General Mills is down more than -8% after lowering guidance on its full-year organic net sales forecast [15] - Vulcan Materials is down more than -7% after forecasting full-year adjusted EBITDA below consensus [16] - Danaher is down more than -2% after reports of a nearly $10 billion acquisition deal for Masimo [17] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services is up more than +30% after Hapag-Lloyd AG announced a cash deal to buy the company [18]