Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) with a distribution yield of 7.5%, presenting both growth opportunities and historical challenges [1] Business Overview - Energy Transfer owns energy pipelines, storage, and transportation assets, primarily charging fees for their use, with approximately 90% of adjusted EBITDA linked to these fees [2] - The business is diversified across various segments: natural gas liquids and refined products (24% of EBITDA), midstream assets (23%), natural gas pipelines and storage (21%), crude oil (18%), and stakes in two publicly traded MLPs (14%) [4] Financial Health and Growth Prospects - The company has reduced leverage to levels that management is comfortable with and is planning $5 billion in capital investments for 2025 [8] - Capital investments will be allocated across different segments: midstream (30%), natural gas liquids and refined products (28%), natural gas pipelines (28%), oil (6%), and other projects [9] - Management targets a distribution growth of 3% to 5% annually for the foreseeable future, indicating a focus on slow and steady growth [10] Historical Context and Investor Sentiment - Past events, such as a distribution cut in 2020 and the cancellation of a deal to acquire Williams in 2016, may cause conservative investors to be cautious [5][6] - Despite historical challenges, the company is expected to be slightly larger and more profitable in the coming year, potentially leading to a higher distribution [11] - The sustainable growth path of Energy Transfer is comparable to that of peers like Enterprise Products Partners, which has a strong track record of annual distribution increases [12]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP reported earnings that met expectations, with earnings per share of 36 cents and revenue of $21.02 billion, although revenue was below analyst forecasts and lower year-over-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share exceeded analysts' forecasts by three cents and were 12.5% higher year-over-year [2]. - Revenue of $21.02 billion was 2.8% lower year-over-year and below the expected $22.28 billion [2]. Investment Structure - Energy Transfer operates as a Master Limited Partnership (MLP), allowing it to avoid corporate taxes by distributing much of its free cash flow to investors [3]. - Distributions are tax-deferred until shares are sold, providing a tax advantage for investors [4]. Historical Returns - Investors have seen a total return of over 240% in the last five years, although the stock remains below its all-time high set in 2015, with a total return of just 14% over the last decade [5]. Distribution Concerns - The company cut its distribution in half in 2020 but has since increased it at an average annualized rate of around 27% over the last three years [7]. - Other MLPs like Enbridge Inc. and Enterprise Product Partners L.P. offer attractive distributions and a longer history of dividend increases [8]. Stock Performance and Outlook - In 2025, ET stock's total return was -12.3%, influenced by declining oil prices and increased production from OPEC+ nations [9]. - Current stock price forecast is $22.09, indicating a potential upside of 27.62% based on 11 analyst ratings [10]. Future Projects - Energy Transfer has several major projects under construction, including the Lenorah II processing plant in the Permian Basin, expected to go online by the end of the current quarter [11].

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer (ET) is a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) offering a high yield of 7.8% supported by a growing distribution, but potential investors should consider its past distribution cut and management decisions before investing while the stock trades below $20 [1][4][9] Company Overview - Energy Transfer operates in the midstream sector, facilitating the transportation of oil and natural gas from production sites to consumption points, primarily earning fees for asset usage, which provides reliable cash flows even during downturns in the energy industry [1][3] - The company also serves as the general partner for two other publicly traded MLPs: Sunoco, which delivers gasoline, and USA Compression Partners, which offers compression services for pipelines, alongside overseeing liquefied natural gas projects [3] Distribution and Financial Performance - The quarterly distribution has been consistently increased since Q4 2021, indicating a positive trend in cash flow and distribution growth [1] - Despite the attractive yield, the company previously cut its distribution by 50% during the COVID-19 pandemic to reduce balance sheet leverage, raising concerns about income consistency for potential investors [5][6] Management and Trust Issues - The company faced scrutiny over its decision to back out of a significant acquisition of Williams in 2016, which raised questions about management's trustworthiness and decision-making, particularly as the former CEO, who was involved in the deal, is now the chairman of the board [7][8] Competitive Landscape - While Energy Transfer's high yield and reliable cash flows may appeal to some income investors, alternatives such as Enterprise Products Partners and Enbridge are suggested, which offer attractive yields of 7% and 5.8% respectively, along with a history of consistent annual distribution increases and no controversial acquisition history [9]

Core Viewpoint - UPS has experienced significant stock decline and operational challenges, while Enterprise Products Partners presents a more stable investment opportunity with strong growth potential and high dividend yield [1][2][7]. UPS Overview - UPS operates in over 200 countries, delivering an average of 22.4 million packages daily and employing nearly half a million people [1]. - The company has been a member of the S&P 500 for 23 years and has raised its dividend annually for 16 consecutive years [1]. Recent Performance of UPS - Over the past two years, UPS's stock has plummeted by more than 50% due to decelerating deliveries, shrinking operating margins, and declining EPS [2]. - In 2023, UPS's revenue declined by 9%, adjusted operating margin shrank by 290 basis points to 10.9%, and EPS plunged by 41% [4]. - For 2024, revenue growth flatlined, adjusted operating margin dropped another 90 basis points to 9.8%, and EPS fell by 13% [4]. Future Projections for UPS - From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect UPS's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of less than 1%, while EPS is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% [5]. - If UPS matches analysts' estimates and trades at 13 times forward earnings by the beginning of 2027, its stock price could rise about 23% to $119, driving its market cap to just over $100 billion [6]. Enterprise Products Partners Overview - Enterprise Products Partners builds pipelines for transporting natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil, operating over 50,000 miles of pipeline across the U.S. with a combined storage capacity of over 300 million barrels of oil [8]. - As a midstream company, Enterprise generates revenue by charging upstream extraction and downstream refining companies "tolls" to use its pipelines, making it less affected by fluctuating fuel prices [9]. Growth Potential of Enterprise Products Partners - Enterprise is well-insulated from inflation and macro headwinds, benefiting from the Trump Administration's promotion of domestic fossil fuels [10]. - The company is a master limited partnership (MLP), reporting profits in earnings per unit (EPU) and returning most of its EPU to investors as distributions [11]. - From 2014 to 2024, Enterprise's EPU grew at a steady CAGR of 6%, with a current forward distribution of $2.14 per share, equating to a forward yield of 6.9% [12]. Future Projections for Enterprise Products Partners - Analysts expect Enterprise's EPU to continue growing at a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2027, driven by pipeline expansions in oil-rich locations [12]. - At $31, Enterprise trades at just 11 times this year's EPU estimate, and if it trades at 15 times forward earnings by Q1 2027, its stock price could rise 53% to nearly $48, boosting its market cap to $102.5 billion [13].

Group 1: Company Overview - Energy Transfer operates midstream businesses, primarily owning and operating pipelines, which provide reliable cash flows through the energy cycle [2] - The company also acts as the general partner to two other publicly traded master limited partnerships: Sunoco LP and USA Compression Partners, adding complexity and potential volatility to its operations [4] Group 2: Historical Performance - Energy Transfer cut its distribution by 50% in 2020 to strengthen its balance sheet during a challenging period for the energy industry, which negatively impacted unit holders [5][6] - The company's units experienced significant growth until around 2016, after which they have struggled to exceed $20 per unit, coinciding with weak oil prices [8] - A notable event in the company's history involved a failed acquisition of Williams, which raised concerns about potential debt and dividend cuts, leading to a loss of investor confidence [9] Group 3: Comparison with Peers - Other midstream energy companies, such as Enterprise Products Partners and Enbridge, have demonstrated more consistent dividend growth, with Enterprise increasing its distribution for 26 years and Enbridge for 30 years [10] - While Energy Transfer offers a higher distribution yield of 7.8%, the consistency and reliability of dividends from its peers may present a more attractive option for investors focused on stability [11]