Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is closed on November 27, 2025, for Thanksgiving, following a strong performance midweek with major indexes extending their winning streak [1] - Major U.S. benchmark indices posted solid gains on November 26, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.67%, S&P 500 advancing 0.69%, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.82% [2] Investor Sentiment - The market's upward trajectory is attributed to increasing investor confidence in a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with an 83% to 85% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction [3] - Positive sentiment is further supported by strong performance in the technology sector and a notable surge in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin reaching $91,500 [3] Upcoming Events - The focus shifts to the abbreviated trading session on November 28, 2025, with no major economic reports scheduled for release [4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10 is significant, with expectations for an interest rate cut, supported by the "Beige Book" report indicating little change in economic activity [5] Market Projections - Major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, project continued market strength, forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7,500 by the end of 2026, with potential growth past 8,000 if aggressive rate cuts are implemented [6] - Anticipated earnings growth for U.S. companies is projected at 13% to 15% over the next two years [6] Corporate Developments - In the technology sector, Nvidia and Microsoft were key drivers of the midweek rally, with Nvidia rising 1.4% and Microsoft gaining 1.8% [8] - Alphabet's stock surged by 6.3% earlier in the week due to enthusiasm surrounding its new Gemini AI model, although it experienced a 1% dip on Wednesday [8] - Dell Technologies closed up 5.83%, while Oracle jumped 4% after a bullish view from Deutsche Bank [8] - Other notable movements included Teradyne Inc. rising 6.98% and Newmont Goldcorp Corp. gaining 4.93%, while Deere & Company fell 5.7% due to a downbeat forecast [9] Corporate Announcements - HP Inc. plans to cut 4,000 to 6,000 jobs globally by 2028 to streamline operations and integrate AI into product development [10] - Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. reported a cyber-attack potentially leaking personal information of over 1.5 million customers [10] - Wipro announced a strategic alliance to advance research in various AI technologies [11] - IMPACT Silver Corp. reported a 24% increase in Q3 2025 revenue, driven by higher silver prices [11] - Azad India Mobility saw a 240% jump in Profit After Tax for Q2 FY26 due to rising demand for electric mobility [11]

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran believes banking regulations are too tight and advocates for a re-evaluation to prevent economic slowdown risks [2][9] - Miran identifies shelter costs as the primary driver of inflation, emphasizing housing's greater impact on the economy compared to the equity market [3][9] - He anticipates significant disinflation in housing services due to population shifts and the lag in market rents affecting inflation data [3] Energy Markets - The U.S. API report shows an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 2.78 million barrels, surpassing the forecast of 2.25 million barrels, contrasting with a previous decrease of 3.674 million barrels [5][9] Equity Markets - Nasdaq reported a substantial increase in U.S. equity options volume for September, reaching 378 million contracts, a 42% year-over-year rise [6][9] Emerging and Frontier Markets - FTSE Russell has placed Egypt on a watch list for potential reclassification from a secondary emerging market to frontier market status, and Nigeria is also under review for similar reclassification [7][9] Corporate Developments - Grupo Mexico has stated it has no interest in a bidding war for Citigroup's Banamex unit, indicating a potential public listing if its current offer is successful [10][9]

Core Insights - The ADP Employment report indicates a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of a 51,000 job gain, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn [2][5] - The job losses were primarily among small and medium-sized businesses, with small establishments losing 40,000 jobs and medium-sized firms shedding 20,000 positions, while large businesses added 33,000 jobs [4] - A significant downward revision of August's employment figures from a gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs has compounded the negative outlook, showing that private sector employment has declined in three of the last four months [5] Economic Implications - The weak employment data is expected to increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, with analysts suggesting a higher likelihood of a 0.25% cut in the federal funds target at the upcoming October meeting [5] - The ADP report has gained increased significance due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspending its data releases, leading to heightened scrutiny of its implications for the economy [3]

Core Insights - The ADP Employment report revealed a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of a 51,000 job gain, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn [2][3] - The report indicates a significant job loss concentrated in small and medium-sized businesses, with small establishments losing 40,000 jobs and medium-sized firms cutting 20,000 positions, while large businesses added 33,000 jobs [3][4] - A major downward revision of August's data from a 54,000 job gain to a 3,000 job loss has compounded the negative outlook, showing that private sector employment has declined in three of the last four months [4] Economic Implications - The weak employment report is likely to pressure the Federal Reserve to consider further monetary policy easing, with expectations of a potential quarter percent cut in the federal funds target at the upcoming October meeting [4] - The job market is described as "stagnant," suggesting that the report may support more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy and consumption [4] Sector Performance - The service sector experienced the most significant job losses, with leisure and hospitality losing 19,000 jobs and professional and business services cutting 13,000 jobs, contributing to a concerning economic outlook [5]

Core Insights - Sales of previously owned U.S. homes increased solidly in August due to lower mortgage rates attracting buyers back into the market [1][2] - Pending home sales rebounded by 4.0% in August, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.2% increase [1][2] - The annual increase in pending home sales was 3.8% compared to the previous year [2] Mortgage Rates and Economic Context - Lower mortgage rates are facilitating more homebuyers entering contracts, with the 30-year mortgage rate nearing an 11-month low [2][3] - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range, contributing to the decline in mortgage rates [2] - Despite the positive impact of lower mortgage rates, a weakening labor market may limit further gains in home sales, with job gains averaging only 29,000 per month over the last three months compared to 82,000 during the same period last year [3]

Core Insights - New home sales in the US increased significantly by 20.5% in August, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 800,000 units, indicating a strong demand in the housing market [1][5] - The decline in mortgage rates, attributed to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing, has contributed to this surge in new home sales [2][3] - However, the labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may limit the sustainability of this growth in home sales [4] Sales Performance - New home sales rose to an annualized rate of 800,000 units in August, a notable increase from the revised July rate of 664,000 units [1][5] - Year-over-year, new home sales increased by 15.4% in August, reflecting a positive trend in the housing sector [2] Mortgage Rates - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, with expectations of continued reductions through 2025 [3] - The average rate for a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.26%, the lowest in 11 months, down from approximately 7.04% in mid-January [3] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market has softened, with nonfarm payroll gains averaging only 29,000 jobs per month over the three months leading to August, a decrease from 82,000 jobs during the same period last year [4]

Group 1 - Intel experienced its largest daily gain since October 1987, surging 22.8% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in the company [1][9] - Nvidia's stock rose 3.5%, recovering from previous losses due to concerns over Chinese tech firms potentially halting chip purchases [1][9] - The semiconductor index increased by 3.6%, positively impacting the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 technology sector, which rose by 1.36% [1][9] Group 2 - The small-cap Russell 2000 index reached a record high close of 2,466 points, marking its first record since November [2][9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 124.10 points (0.27%) to 46,142.42, while the S&P 500 gained 31.61 points (0.48%) to 6,631.96, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 209.40 points (0.94%) to 22,470.73 [5][9] - CrowdStrike's stock increased by 12.8% after multiple brokerages raised their price targets, while Darden Restaurants' shares fell by 7.7% following weak quarterly results [7][10] Group 3 - The number of new unemployment benefit applications in the U.S. decreased last week, although the labor market is showing signs of softening [6][9] - Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of 1.87-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2.5-to-1 [8][10] - The S&P 500 recorded 31 new 52-week highs and eight new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite saw 156 new highs and 42 new lows [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to lower the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points during its meeting on September 16-17, indicating a resumption of the monetary policy easing cycle [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy** - The Federal Open Market Committee is anticipated to initiate a reduction in the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points [1] - This action suggests a continuation of the monetary policy easing cycle [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to resume its interest rate cutting cycle, with a widely anticipated 25 basis points cut on Wednesday due to worsening job market indicators [1] - Investors are pricing in a total of 69.6 points in monetary policy easing by the end of 2025, implying nearly three quarter-point cuts this year [2] - There is a possibility that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may emphasize inflation risks and tariff impacts, which could temper market expectations of a dovish Fed [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Company Updates - Nvidia's stock fell 2.8% in premarket trading following an investigation by China's market regulator for potential anti-monopoly law violations [4] - Wall Street's main indexes recorded weekly gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching intraday record highs, despite September historically being a poor month for U.S. equities [5] - Warner Bros Discovery's stock tumbled 4.1% before the bell, while a source indicated that Paramount Skydance was preparing a bid for the studio, leading to a surge of over 50% in its stock since the news [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. dollar weakened as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with President Trump advocating for a larger cut [1][2] - Traders are expecting a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with a small chance of a 50 basis point cut [2] - The dollar index fell 0.4% to 97.273, marking a nearly one-week low, while the dollar decreased against the yen and the euro strengthened [3] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar is perceived to be in a bearish trend despite stabilizing after a significant decline earlier this year, with investors looking for guidance from the Fed's projections [4] - Other central banks, including those in Japan, Britain, Canada, and Norway, are also making rate decisions this week, with expectations for the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan to maintain current rates [5] - The euro was minimally affected by Fitch Ratings' downgrade of France's sovereign credit score, which was largely anticipated by the market [6]