Core Insights - A key interest rate in the US financial system has surged to its highest level this year, surpassing the Federal Reserve's target range due to reduced liquidity, influenced by Treasury auction settlements and corporate tax payments [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Movements - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) increased to 4.51% as of September 15, up from 4.42% the previous session, marking the largest rise since December 31 [2]. - The spread between SOFR and the effective fed funds rate widened to 18 basis points, the largest since December 26, with the fed funds rate at 4.40% as of September 12 [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Overnight financing rates for banks and asset managers have been rising as the Treasury rebuilds its cash reserves while the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet [3]. - Usage of the Fed's overnight lending facility has dropped to a four-year low, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been unwinding its balance sheet since 2022 to reverse asset purchases made during the pandemic, aiming to minimize bank reserves at the central bank [6]. - Persistently high overnight rates may challenge the Fed's ability to continue its quantitative tightening without impacting liquidity in the financial system [5].

Central Banks and Economic Policy - The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to slow its balance sheet rundown due to recent market turbulence, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization [3] - The Federal Reserve's reverse repo operation involved 16 counterparties taking $16.954 billion, reflecting ongoing dynamics in short-term money markets [4][8] Technological Advancements - OpenAI has released GPT-5 Codex, an advanced language model that promises enhanced capabilities in coding, writing, and complex reasoning, potentially revolutionizing professional tasks [5][8] Housing Market Initiatives - FHFA Director Pulte has directed Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) to increase housing supply to address the ongoing housing shortage in the U.S., signaling a strategic effort to inject more inventory into the market [6][8] Semiconductor Industry Stability - STMicroelectronics (STM) has confirmed to the Italian government that it is not planning redundancies at its Agrate plant, providing stability for the local workforce amidst broader industry challenges [7][8] - The company is committed to its investment plans in Italy, including plans to double production capacity at the site by 2027 [9]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to slow its pace of reducing government bond holdings from 100 billion pounds a year due to increased volatility in bond markets, while maintaining its main interest rate [1][3] - Since 2022, the Bank of England has reduced its gilt holdings from 875 billion pounds to 558 billion pounds, conducting outright sales rather than allowing bonds to mature [2] - Economists predict the Monetary Policy Committee will reduce the pace of quantitative tightening to a median of 67.5 billion pounds, a larger decrease than previously anticipated [3] Group 2 - British 30-year government bond yields reached their highest level since 1998, indicating significant market pressure ahead of the upcoming budget [4] - The Bank of England estimated that its quantitative tightening has only added 0.15-0.25 percentage points to British government borrowing costs [5] - A survey indicated that banks believe the neutral level of reserves is between 385-540 billion pounds, while current levels are around 650 billion pounds [6] Group 3 - To completely end active sales and achieve quantitative tightening solely through maturing gilts, the Bank of England would need to reduce the pace of quantitative tightening to 49 billion pounds [7]

All right, let's talk about that. Let's talk about inflation. Let's talk about the Fed, not including Lisa Cook and more with Ben Emmens. He is founder and chief investment officer at Fed Watch Advisors. Ben, really appreciate you coming in on a Friday. Thank you very much. You're welcome. Uh I'm not going to ask you to adjudicate this or get into the politics of it, but does the outcome of this case, the independence of the Fed, whatever it is, does it matter to how we should look at the Fed as a rate maki ...

Core Insights - Citigroup's subsidiary, Citibank N.A., reported an increase in credit card trust delinquency rates for July 2025, although these rates remain below pre-pandemic levels [1][2]. Credit Card Metrics - The delinquency rate for Citibank's Credit Card Issuance Trust rose to 1.42% in July 2025 from 1.38% in June 2025, still lower than the 1.53% recorded in July 2019 [2][10]. - The net charge-off rate decreased to 2.07% in July from 2.12% in June, significantly lower than the 2.91% seen in July 2019 [2][10]. - Principal receivables in the trust fell to $20.7 billion in July from $20.9 billion in June [2][10]. Net Credit Loss and Provisions - The company's net credit loss (NCL) experienced a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% over the four years ending in 2024, with a 2% year-over-year increase in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Provisions for credit losses saw a CAGR of 38.9% from 2022 to 2024, with this upward trend continuing into the first half of 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - Citigroup's profitability may be challenged by rising credit losses in its Branded Cards portfolio, with projected NCL rates between 3.50% and 4% in 2025 [4]. - Economic conditions could further weaken, leading to accelerated losses and increased loan-loss provisions, which would pressure earnings [4][5]. Industry Comparison - In July 2025, U.S. credit card delinquency rates were mixed, with Capital One's rate rising to 3.67% and JPMorgan's to 0.86% [6][7]. - Capital One's net charge-off rate decreased to 4.83%, while JPMorgan's dropped to 1.54% [6][7]. Price Performance and Valuation - Citigroup's shares have increased by 36.6% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's growth of 23.2% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Citigroup's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates year-over-year increases of 27.4% and 27.7%, respectively, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [13]. - Citigroup trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.57X, below the industry's average of 14.47X [15].

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the most recent FOMC and we'll of course talk about the crypto markets as well and some of the longerterm trends there. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Powell basically said a lot of the same things he always says today. Uh but just so you know, in case you're curious ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are significant players in the U.S. banking sector, influenced by interest rate trends and economic cycles [1][2] Group 1: JPMorgan's Position - JPMorgan is the largest U.S. bank with a diversified presence across the financial sector [2] - The bank plans to open over 500 branches by 2027, with 150 already established in 2024, aiming to enhance its physical footprint while integrating digital tools [3] - JPMorgan's net interest income (NII) is projected to be $94.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a nearly 2% year-over-year increase [4] - The bank leads in global investment banking fees, although near-term prospects may be uncertain due to economic instability [5] - JPMorgan's common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 14.2%, significantly above the minimum requirement, allowing for a 7% increase in quarterly dividends to $1.50 per share and a $50 billion share repurchase program [6] - The bank anticipates card net charge-off (NCO) rates to be 3.6% this year, potentially rising to 3.6-3.9% in 2026 [7] Group 2: Wells Fargo's Developments - Wells Fargo has lifted the $1.95 trillion asset cap, enhancing its financial performance and strategic positioning [8] - The bank plans to increase deposits, grow its loan portfolio, and expand securities holdings, which will positively impact NII [9] - Wells Fargo is streamlining operations while investing in its branch network and digital upgrades, aiming for $2.4 billion in gross expense reductions in 2025 [10][12] - The bank also cleared the 2025 stress test and plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 13% to 45 cents per share, with $3.8 billion available for share repurchases [13] Group 3: Financial Projections and Comparisons - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan suggests a 1.3% revenue decline in 2025, with a projected 5.6% fall in earnings for the current year, but a 5.9% increase next year [14] - Conversely, Wells Fargo's revenue is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2025 and 5.4% in 2026, with earnings projected to rise by 9.3% and 14.3% for the same years [17] - Year-to-date, shares of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have increased by 20.3% and 17.3%, respectively, outperforming the S&P 500 Index [20] - JPMorgan's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.06X, while Wells Fargo's is 13.21X, indicating that Wells Fargo is trading at a discount compared to the industry and JPMorgan [22][23] - JPMorgan's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.88%, surpassing Wells Fargo's 12.15% and the industry's 11.93% [23] Group 4: Investment Outlook - While Wells Fargo's regulatory flexibility positions it for growth, JPMorgan is currently viewed as the stronger investment option due to its scale, diversified business model, and robust capital return plans [24] - Despite near-term earnings pressure, JPMorgan's superior ROE and market position justify a premium valuation, making it a compelling choice for investors seeking income and growth potential [25]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance that has now hit a new cycle high and likely very shortly heading to 66%. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel.Give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse. com. This is the first video I've recorded in over a week. I've been out of town and I told you guys that and that all the videos that I was goi ...

Market Analysis of ETH/Bitcoin Valuation - The analysis focuses on the ETH/Bitcoin market cap ratio as a key indicator [1] - The report suggests that the altcoin market on its Bitcoin pair may need to decline further [5] - The analysis considers the potential for ETH/Bitcoin to drop in Q3, which could help altcoin Bitcoin pairs reach range lows [8] - The report highlights the historical rallies of ETH/Bitcoin around May in 2023 and 2024, followed by declines later in the year [3][24] Technical Analysis and Predictions - The analysis is cautious about ETH/Bitcoin breaking through the bull market support band [4] - The report suggests that if ETH/Bitcoin fails to break through the bull market support band in the coming weeks, a drop to find a higher low in Q3 is likely [4] - The analysis considers scenarios where ETH/Bitcoin goes sideways or slightly lower, allowing altcoins to decline on their Bitcoin pairs [25] - The report mentions that ETH dominance wicked below the low from 2019 and had a rally, questioning whether it will break through after rejections [22] - The analysis suggests that a bullish setup would be ETHUSD going lower while ETH/Bitcoin puts in a higher low [33] - The report considers the possibility of ETH/Bitcoin repeating the pattern of the last cycle, with a rally followed by a period of struggle and then renewed strength [36]

Market Analysis - The altcoin market has reached 32 on its Bitcoin pairs, a target projected around mid-June, indicating a devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin [1] - The analysis suggests a potential further decline to 025% on Bitcoin pairs, although the timing remains uncertain [1] - Altcoins often experience short-term bounces during FOMC meetings when QT is announced to continue, but these rallies have historically failed [1] - Bitcoin dominance is projected to reach 66%, driven by the devaluation of altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs [17] - Historical data indicates that significant alt seasons typically occur after altcoins reach range lows on their Bitcoin pairs [31][32] Investment Strategy & Risk Assessment - The report suggests that Bitcoin currently offers a better risk-adjusted return compared to altcoins [25] - The analysis warns against prematurely calling the top on Bitcoin dominance, as it has proven dangerous historically [16] - The content creator expresses a preference for valuing portfolios in Satoshi's rather than USD, highlighting the increased risk associated with altcoins [33] Technical Analysis & Indicators - Altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs are described as oscillators, suggesting a tendency to revert to lower levels [1] - The bull market support band is identified as a rejection point for altcoin rallies on their Bitcoin pairs [1] - ETH Bitcoin's pullback is expected to drive all Bitcoin pairs to range lows [3]