So, that's how we're getting up and running for this crucial week of trade, of course, the final week of February, and we've got a bit of data to get through. We've got some earnings on the horizon as well. So, let's get to Kevin Green, who joins me for this data download.Very good morning to you, Kevin. Uh, just getting us across some of the data we're getting right now. Factory orders, what are you seeing as far as that's concerned.>> Good morning, Samuel. Well, we are seeing factory orders actually miss ...

Wall Street trying to assess the potential economic impact of the tariffs that are going away and the tariffs that are uh maybe staying and on the way. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us uh with the latest. What are you hearing, Steve.>> Well, it was an interesting weekend talking to lawyers and trade experts and economists. But with the end of emergency tariffs, but the beginning of a series of new ones, economists expect pretty much somewhat less inflation and a reduced hit to growth this yea ...

Group 1 - The Supreme Court's ruling against significant portions of Trump's tariff regime initially led to a positive market response [1] - However, stocks dropped in premarket trading following the initial reaction to the ruling [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have experienced a significant increase, driven by various market factors and investor sentiment [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices have risen to $1,950 per ounce, marking a 2% increase over the past week [1] - Silver prices have climbed to $25.50 per ounce, reflecting a 3% increase during the same period [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to heightened inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions [1] - Increased demand from investors seeking safe-haven assets has also contributed to the upward trend in gold and silver prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments in complex instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about cryptocurrencies, CFDs, and other financial instruments, highlighting their complexity and associated high risks [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump's emergency tariffs has led to increased uncertainty in the tariff landscape, with a new 15% tariff announced, raising concerns about potential economic impacts [1][11]. Tariff Developments - President Trump announced a new 10% tariff on the rest of the world, which was later raised to 15%, surprising some officials [1][11]. - It remains unclear when these tariffs will be imposed, what might be excluded, and whether all countries will face the 15% rate [4][11]. Market Reactions - MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan increased by 0.5% amid the uncertainty [5][11]. - Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday, but futures traded at 56,970, slightly above the cash close of 56,825 [5][11]. - South Korea's market continued its upward trend with a 2.0% rise, following a 5.5% increase last week [5][11]. Economic Indicators - The Treasury market reacted negatively to the tariff news, raising the risk of the U.S. government needing to repay approximately $170 billion in revenue, potentially widening the fiscal deficit to around 6.6% of GDP [7][11]. - Economic growth in the December quarter missed forecasts, while core inflation surprised on the high side, affecting market expectations for a June rate cut from the Federal Reserve [8][11]. Currency and Commodity Movements - The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen by 0.4% to 154.36, while it gained 0.4% against the euro, reaching $1.1826 [9][11]. - In commodity markets, gold increased by 0.8% to $5,143 per ounce, and silver rose by 2% to $86.24 per ounce [9][11]. - Oil prices experienced volatility, with Brent crude down 0.6% to $71.29 per barrel and U.S. crude down 0.8% to $65.95 per barrel [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is experiencing its second-narrowest trading range in history due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, with a year-to-date range of 2.7 percentage points between its high and low [1] Group 1: S&P 500 Performance - As of the latest data, the S&P 500 is up 1.94% year-to-date at its closing high and down 0.71% at its low [1] - The only year with a narrower range than the current 2.7 percentage point spread was 1966, which had a 2.1 percentage point range [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts indicate that the economy appears to be stable, described as "good but not great" [1] - Positive macro-signals are being sent from the semiconductor and transportation sectors [1] - The interplay of oil prices, the dollar, and interest rates is expected to provide a supportive environment for equities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is set to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 17, with expectations of revenue growth driven by aggregates pricing and volume increases, despite facing margin pressures from cost inflation and tariff uncertainties [1][9]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to $2.13 from $2.16, indicating a 1.8% decline year-over-year [2]. - The consensus estimate for total revenues is projected at $1.94 billion, reflecting a 4.9% year-over-year growth [2]. - In the last reported quarter, Vulcan's adjusted earnings and total revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6% and 1.7%, respectively, with year-over-year increases of 27.9% and 14.4% [1]. Group 2: Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be supported by increased aggregates pricing and volume growth, driven by robust public construction and private nonresidential activities [3]. - Favorable weather conditions, particularly in the South, and completed acquisitions on both coasts are anticipated to contribute positively to revenue [3]. - The backlog in public and private projects is expected to provide a strong pipeline of demand, enhancing revenue visibility [3]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Aggregates segment is $1.55 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.2%, while the Concrete segment is estimated at $198 million, indicating a 20.7% increase [5]. - Conversely, the Asphalt mix segment is projected to generate $317 million, representing a 3.1% decline year-over-year [5]. - Unit shipment volumes for Aggregates and Concrete are expected to rise to 55,521 tons and 1,125 tons, respectively, while Asphalt mix shipments are anticipated to decrease to 3,332 tons [6]. Group 4: Margin Trends and Challenges - Vulcan's bottom line is likely to be impacted by cost inflation and ongoing tariff uncertainties, which may restrict growth despite price increases [7]. - The company is facing macroeconomic headwinds and pressures in end markets such as single-family housing, which could further limit bottom-line growth [7]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction - The Zacks model indicates that Vulcan is not expected to achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -1.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [8][10].

Market Performance - All three major US indices experienced their worst daily performance since October 10 of the previous year, with the S&P 500 dropping 143.15 points (2.06%) to close at 6,796.86, the Nasdaq Composite falling 561.07 points (2.39%) to 22,954.32, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 870.74 points (1.76%) to settle at 48,488.59 [2][6] - Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the session below their 50-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [2][6] Tariff Implications - President Trump's announcement of additional 10% import tariffs on goods from several European countries, effective February 1, and a potential increase to 25% from June 1, has reignited tariff-related uncertainty in the markets [3][6] - The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures market fear, rose to 20.09 points, the highest closing level since November 24, reflecting increased market anxiety [3][6] Global Market Reactions - Indian stock markets also faced declines, with NSE and BSE benchmarks falling over 1%, resulting in a loss of nearly Rs 9.86 lakh crore for investors [3][6] - Asian stocks continued to show losses for a third consecutive session amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][6] Bond Market Developments - Japanese government bonds saw a sharp decline, leading to record-high yields, while concerns over Japan's fiscal health were raised following calls for a snap election [4][6] - Selling pressure in US Treasuries was more pronounced at the long end of the curve, contributing to higher yields on longer-dated European government bonds [4][6] Economic Indicators and Earnings Season - Despite the volatility, the US economy remains strong, with upcoming economic indicators including updates on third-quarter GDP, January PMI data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures report [4][6] - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major companies like Netflix expected to report results soon, although Netflix's stock ended the session 0.8% lower ahead of its quarterly earnings announcement [5][6]

分组1 - The S&P 500 index has increased by 16.3% over the last 12 months, outperforming its average annual return of around 10%, while the Nasdaq Composite has gained 19% due to optimism surrounding generative AI technologies [2] - Consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. GDP, is primarily driven by the highest-income consumers, with the top 10% responsible for nearly half of U.S. consumer spending, indicating potential economic weakness [5][6] - The Trump administration's tariffs average around 18% on imports, with businesses absorbing much of the costs, leading to a lower-than-expected inflation rate of 2.7% in November [9] 分组2 - There are concerns that consumer spending may stagnate, particularly among middle and lower-income consumers, which could signal an impending recession [6][8] - The market may face challenges in 2026 and beyond, influenced by factors such as consumer spending, tariffs, and AI investments [3][7]