Group 1 - The average tax refund for the 2025 tax filing season was $3,151, with projections indicating an increase to $4,151 for the upcoming season [1] - The IRS opened the 2025 tax season on January 27, 2025, but the opening date for the 2026 season is yet to be announced [2] - Taxpayers can prepare their documents in advance for the 2026 tax season, even though they cannot file until the IRS announces the schedule [2] Group 2 - Filing taxes in January allows for faster refunds, as the IRS typically issues refunds within 21 days of e-filing [4] - Early filing can lead to lower preparation costs, avoiding peak-season rush fees charged by accountants [5] - Tax professionals may provide better assistance when filing early, as they are less pressured compared to the April deadline [6] - Filing early can help protect against identity theft, as it reduces the risk of scammers filing fraudulent returns using the taxpayer's information [7]

The $100 billion gamble that your tax refund will actually impact how you vote https://t.co/rwjgjwKZ93 ...

As if figuring out taxes isn’t confusing enough, President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) may mean some significant changes for many taxpayers. On the positive side, it could mean you see a lower tax bill this season. “For the average American, the OBBBA will mean they pay less in taxes,” said Melanie Musson, finance expert with Quote.com. “Regardless of whether you argue that you should get more back or others get more than you, the fact is that most Americans are going to get more bac ...

Americans should take the next couple of weeks to get their tax documents in order if they want to be among the first to file their taxes (and get their refunds) when tax season opens on January 26, the IRS said. Americans have until April 15 to file their 2025 tax returns and pay any tax due, the IRS said. The agency expects to receive about 164 million individual income tax returns this year, with most taxpayers filing electronically. One-third of Americans rely on their tax refund to make ends meet, ...

Economic Outlook - The administration anticipates the largest tax refund cycle in U.S. history, with significant refund checks expected for many Americans [1][2] - Families are projected to save between $11,000 and $20,000 annually due to tax changes [2] Wage Growth and Inflation - Real wages for typical workers are reportedly growing at a rate of about 2% to 2.5%, with a 3.7% increase in wages against a 1.6% core inflation rate [4] - Blue-collar workers have seen an estimated raise of nearly $2,000 this year after accounting for inflation [4] Economic Sentiment - Despite concerns from the public, with 44% feeling financially strained and 74% rating the economy poorly, the administration maintains a positive outlook on economic growth [4] - The administration's strategy focuses on increasing aggregate supply to exert downward pressure on prices, similar to trends observed during Trump's first term [6]

Economic Outlook - The U.S President predicts the "largest tax refund season of all time" next year [1]

Government Policy & Economic Impact - The US government is planning to distribute tax refund checks ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 to each American household [1]

Fiscal Policy Outlook - Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever [1] - The government plans to issue dividends to the people, funded by tariff revenue [1][2] - The tariff revenue is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars [1] - The government aims to reduce debt alongside issuing dividends [1][2] Future Tax System - The government anticipates a future where income tax may be significantly reduced or eliminated due to substantial revenue intake [3] - The possibility of keeping income tax at a very low rate or for symbolic purposes is being considered [3]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to broaden out, with a target of 7100 by year-end [1] - Seasonality is a key factor, especially for laggers, with November, December, and January being the most positive months [1] - A contrarian sentiment indicator triggered a buy signal, historically leading to an S&P 500 rally of approximately 7.5% over the next 3 months with a 90% positive rate [5] Reflationary Events - Potential AIPA Terrace refund is anticipated, with a ruling expected in December or January, potentially triggering a reflation trade [2] - Tax returns are projected to be larger this year, averaging $800 per person more than last year, contributing to another reflation event [3] AI and Hyperscalers - The AI capex cycle is considered to be in its early stages [6] - Concerns are emerging regarding hyperscalers, as their capex spending may be mandatory for competitiveness, leading to declining free cash flow margins and a decrease in free cash flow as a percentage of earnings to 50% from a previous 100% [7] - AI semis, hardware, and power companies are expected to benefit from the AI capex cycle [8] - Some companies may face scrutiny if they are perceived to be on a continuous spending treadmill without reaping the benefits of scale [10]

Group 1 - The tax return deadline is approaching on April 15, 2025, and experts recommend filing as soon as possible due to confusion around IRS layoffs and potential new tax proposals [1][2] - The average tax refund for the last tax season was over $3,000, with the latest IRS statistics showing a 5.7% increase in refunds compared to the previous year, averaging $3,324 [2] - Intuit TurboTax offers a fast and stress-free tax filing solution, with thousands of TurboTax Live experts available to assist both virtually and in person [3] Group 2 - The IRS will maintain essential operations throughout the tax season, indicating that there is no reason to delay filing taxes [1] - The current economic concerns and rising costs further emphasize the importance of filing taxes promptly to receive refunds sooner [2] - TurboTax Full Service allows users to work with the same tax expert as the previous season, enhancing customer experience [3]