When it comes to trade and deficits, Monday was not a great day for the US economic outlook: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/XPlej4NFsU ...

Joining us now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. Uh, Mr. . Secretary, it's great to have you on as it always is.Good to see you. Morning, Joe. Lead story, uh, economy showing swagger as tariff fears eb.This is the Wall Street Journal pointing out that, uh, there was quite a bit of, um, of angst and hand ringing uh, back in April. a lot of U forecast that the bottom was going to drop out and just flatly stated here and I I know it might not be the favorite uh paper around the White House at this point but t ...

We begin with new tariffs slapped on Europe and Mexico. President Trump today announcing new tariff letters dispatched to members of the European Union imposing a 30% tariff on imports that starts August 1st. European leaders reacted swiftly saying they will continue trade talks but consider counter measures.They plan to meet tomorrow in Brussels to respond. How is the president justifying this new 30% tariff on both the European Union and Mexico. Well, the president, as you said, is threatening to put thes ...

Trade & Tariff Policy - The administration suggests that most trading partners could face tariff rates between 15% and 20% [1] - The country faces an urgent national emergency due to massive trade deficits, cumulatively around $18 trillion over several decades, representing a transfer of wealth, factories, and jobs abroad [2] - The US has collected approximately $100 billion in tariffs, marking a record for a single fiscal year [4] - The US is collecting $18 billion in tariffs from China alone on fentanyl [5] - A 35% tariff threat is being considered for Canada, but it is not yet applied under the USMCA agreement [7][8] - The administration is considering a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, possibly with a delay of over a year to allow supply chains to reorient [12] - Section 232 tariffs aim to strengthen the defense, manufacturing, and health industrial bases [13] Economic Impact & Fiscal Policy - The administration believes that combined with tariff revenues, the "big, beautiful bill" will turn a $2 to $3 trillion deficit into a $2 to $3 trillion surplus [16] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a 18% rate of economic growth, which the administration considers too low [18] - Increasing the growth rate by 1% could raise a couple of trillion dollars, potentially leading to neutrality in the debt [19] - A 50 basis point increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FED) could lead to a 025% to 05% reduction in GDP growth, resulting in 500000 to 750000 fewer jobs [22][23] - A half-point increase on short-term debt could add a couple of hundred billion dollars to the debt over ten years [24] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - There is an argument that the Federal Reserve is at least 50 basis points above where it should be, suggesting a need for lower rates [22] - The bond market may perceive Jerome Powell as ineffective due to his actions [27] - The Federal Reserve (FED) chair should have taken action to address fiscal policy concerns, similar to William McChesney Martin's approach during the Vietnam War [31][32]

All right, let's go back to Washington right now. Megan Cassella has a news alert on the latest on Trump tariffs. Megan, what do you have.Hey guys, so these are about the tariffs relating to Brazil. We are hearing just in the last few minutes from Brazil's president. That's President Lula.We're pulling these off the Reuters wire. He is speaking and says President Trump is misinformed. The US does not run a trade deficit with Brazil.He's correct about that. For something like 15 straight years, the US has ha ...

Joining us now, NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung, managing editor of The Bull Work, and MSNBC contributor Sam Stein, and senior editor at The Atlantic, and host of Radio Atlantic, Hana Rosen. Brian, uh, first off, explain the trade relationship with Brazil. Yeah, so a lot of Americans might be tuning into the news of the Brazil tariffs and wondering, how is that going to impact the things that I buy at the store. Brazil exports a lot of major goods that we see at the grocery store on a d ...

Let's talk about the dollar for a second. Since April 2nd, basically since the start of the second quarter, we've seen the dollar fall about 6% historically. How big of a move is that.And do you see that as a potential warning sign for equity investors. Yeah, clearly the the decline in the dollar here reflects this loss of confidence in US trade uh security and and perhaps even fiscal policy because you also see a bit of a divergence between the dollar index and rate differential. I think that reflects this ...

Breaking news from the White House this morning announcing a new trade framework with Vietnam. Let's get to Aean Jabvers with the details. So, what do we know, Aean.Sarah, well, we don't have any official confirmation in terms of documentation, legal uh documents, that sort of thing. Uh what we do have uh is the president's social media post, and what he says there uh is that the tariff rate on Vietnam is now going to go to 20%. Uh they're going to have a 40% tariff on what they call trans shipments.That's ...

Trade Deficit Analysis - The US has consistently held a large trade deficit, becoming the world's largest importer [1] - A country's trade balance equals total savings minus total investments, but this formula alone doesn't explain the root cause of trade deficits [7][10] - Exchange rates significantly impact trade; a 50% depreciation of the US dollar could eliminate the trade deficit overnight [15] - Persistent trade imbalances lead to automatic exchange rate adjustments through appreciation or depreciation [17] US Trade Deficit Specifics - The US trade deficit has been continuously expanding since the 1970s [3] - The continuous trade deficit in the US is not caused by the US government or central bank raising the dollar exchange rate [25] - The US has a long-term current account deficit combined with a financial and capital account surplus [32] - Continuous capital flows have made the USD appreciate, leading to the US trade deficit [33] Global Monetary System Impact - The US dollar's status as the world's currency and US government securities as a store of value are root causes of the persistent US trade deficit [44] - Central banks invest foreign exchange reserves into the US market, such as buying US Treasury bonds [39] - The better the US economy, the greater the trade deficit, as it attracts investment, appreciates the dollar, and increases the trade account deficit [42]