Sell low, buy higher, sell even higher ...

Core Insights - Lockheed Martin is expected to report quarterly revenues of approximately $18.6 billion, driven by consistent defense spending and effective backlog management in its Aeronautics and Missiles & Fire Control divisions [2] - Earnings may face slight margin pressure due to supply chain costs and program timing, despite efficiency improvements and increased F-35 production rates [2] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $118 billion, with total revenue of $72 billion over the past twelve months, and a net profit of $4.2 billion [3] Financial Performance - Lockheed Martin's operating income for the past year was $5.9 billion, indicating operational profitability [3] - Historical earnings data shows that there have been 20 documented earnings data points over the last five years, with 40% of one-day post-earnings returns being positive [5] - The median of positive one-day returns is 2.1%, while the median of negative returns is -3.5% [5] Investment Strategies - Two approaches are suggested for traders: prepare before the earnings announcement or adjust positions based on immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [4] - A lower-risk strategy involves analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns to inform trading decisions [6] - The Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, achieving returns exceeding 105% since its inception, providing an alternative for investors seeking less volatility [4][7]

Group 1 - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has experienced a significant year-to-date stock increase of 262.28% as of the start of 2025, driven by its expansion into credit cards, crypto trading, and prediction markets [1] - Despite the impressive gains, there are early signs of caution for shorter-term investors as the stock has recently moved below short-term support levels [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that Robinhood's expansion into various financial instruments has contributed to its stock performance, indicating a diversification strategy that may appeal to investors [1] - The mention of other stocks and investment strategies suggests a competitive landscape where Robinhood is positioned among notable players like Nvidia and Palantir [4]

Portfolio Performance - Initial capital was $90 thousand, with the current value at approximately $34 million [2] - Experienced a maximum drawdown of 52%, from $65 million to $32 million [2] Market Analysis & Strategy - The four-year cycles appear to be nearing a top, potentially leading to multi-cycle participants selling their holdings [3][4] - A new buyer is needed to sustain the four-year cycle, but the support at current price ranges is unclear, especially with mNAVs losing premiums [4] - The longer-term macro backdrop remains bullish due to the cutting cycle and Gold catch-up trade, although the timeframe may be extended due to significant open interest (OI) wipeout [5] - A deleveraging event of similar magnitude was observed on April 14th, 2024, just before the halving [6] - The firm is shifting trading style from swing to chop, reducing leverage to less than 2x portfolio, and targeting extremities with tight stop losses (SLs) and take profits (TPs) [7] HYPE Long Position - The firm still favors the HYPE story and its current valuation, despite challenges from a 50% drop in OI and increased competition from other perpetual DEXs [7][8] - The firm paid $620 thousand in funding fees and experienced 7-figure losses on HYPE longs [11] - The firm does not see a hard reason to close HYPE longs yet, but will be decreasing the size of the long position [11] Potential Catalysts - More institutions recognizing the HYPE story [9] - Launch of killer-app from the HYPE community [9] - Team token unlock surprise [9] - S2 points season [10]

Product Features - Bitget introduces Scaled Orders to enhance trading strategies [1] - Scaled Orders split large orders into smaller ones across a price range [1] - The feature aims to minimize market impact during trading [1] - Scaled Orders help optimize costs in volatile crypto markets [1] - Scaled Orders help seize opportunities in volatile crypto markets [1] Target Audience - The product targets traders looking to optimize costs and manage risk in crypto markets [1]

The market has changed in the last couple yearsBack in the day hyper active trade management was a good way to gain an edgeNow it feels like the opposite is true and conviction is much more important as the market chops highly active traders to death ...

Investment Strategy - The industry suggests actively trading altcoins instead of passively holding them [1] - The industry indicates a shift towards active portfolio management for altcoins [1] - The industry expresses excitement about engaging in active trading with others [1]

Trading Strategy & Risk Management - The trader aims to capitalize on developing trends, identifying weaknesses and reversals at critical junctures, focusing on fair value gaps [8][9] - Aims to lock in profits by taking off 50% of the position when it doubles the initial risk, balancing potential upside with equity curve management [10] - Increased dollar amount risk up to $1,000 per trade [4] - The trader acknowledges the inevitability of losses and emphasizes the importance of keeping risk contained [13] - The trader sets a rule to terminate the trading session after three consecutive losses to manage risk [20] Market Analysis & Instruments - The trader primarily focuses on day trading cryptocurrencies, with a macro view of Bitcoin to understand the overall market index [6] - Actively monitors a watchlist including Solana, Ethereum, and Adam for potential trade opportunities [11] - Utilizes TradingView for charting and analysis, an exchange for trade execution, and Notion for trade logging and data tracking [4][5] Trading Session Performance - The trading session resulted in a net loss of $2,400, representing approximately 24% of the risk factors, with a low win rate of 14% [55] - Experienced multiple losses throughout the day, highlighting the challenges of maintaining emotional control and avoiding revenge trading [33][34] - Despite facing losses, the trader emphasizes the importance of sticking to the trading process and trusting that profitable setups will eventually emerge [40] - The trader transparently shares both winning and losing trades to provide a realistic view of the trading experience [23][56]

Investment Strategy - The market sentiment suggests a reluctance to realize profits, favoring continuous portfolio growth [1] - A sell-high and buy-low strategy is advocated [1] - Arrogance and greed are identified as potential risks to investment success [1]

Trading Strategy - Plan the exit strategy before entering a trade [1] - Determine the stop-loss level based on where the trading idea is invalidated [1] - Assess the Risk:Reward (R:R) ratio before initiating a trade [1] - Size the trade according to the stop distance to limit potential loss to a fixed dollar amount [1] Risk Management - Define the maximum acceptable loss for each trade [1] - The loss should be limited to the pre-defined risk amount [1]