We are at a food distribution center today in Alexandria, Virginia. And everyone you see who's getting a box of food is a federal worker. And that's because as of today, 2 million federal workers are missing their first full paycheck.And I've spoken with folks in this line and in others. They tell me that they're dipping into their savings. They're considering part-time work.They're just dealing with a lot of uncertainty here as the shutdown continues to drag on. And for the food distributors, it's not just ...

ECB’s Lagarde Says Price Risks Have Narrowed Despite Uncertainty https://t.co/3tDgKT5x21 ...

Democratic governors across the country are joining together to counter the Trump administration's controversial changes to health care policy. 15 Democrat governors from the most populous blue states as well as Guam have formed the new governor's public health alliance. The goal is to share data about disease outbreaks, prepare for emergencies, deploy experts, and coordinate public health policy.Those are all responsibilities traditionally held by the CDC. Joining us now is one of the Democrats in that all ...

Economic Uncertainty & Policy - Uncertainty over policy, including potential tax hikes and global trading policy rearrangements, contributed to a weaker labor market in the first half of the year [1][2][3] - China's reneging on earlier trade deals introduces a new tail risk, potentially increasing downside risks to growth [3][4] - The balance of risks has shifted, necessitating policymakers to consider the implications for policy [5][6] Monetary Policy & Neutral Rate - Urgency to move to a more neutral policy stance quickly, as current policy is considered restrictive and vulnerable to shocks [7][8] - The speaker's view on the pace of reaching a neutral rate is somewhat out of consensus, advocating for a quicker move due to less concern about upside inflation [9][10] - Neutral policy rate is the rate at which monetary policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative, but it's difficult to observe directly and models provide wide confidence bands [11][12] - Significant shocks to the economy in recent years, such as changes in immigration policy, have likely caused substantial shifts in the neutral rate [13][14][15] Economic Indicators & Market Reaction - The economy was weaker in the first half of the year, potentially related to trade and uncertainty around trade and taxes [17][18] - The housing market is moribund due to high mortgage rates, representing a significant transmission channel for monetary policy [19] - Bond market reaction to rate cuts differs this year compared to last year, with long yields slightly down by 4-5 basis points in the 18 trading sessions since the cut, contrasting with a 30 basis points increase in the same period last year [22]

Monetary Policy Stance - The central bank's job on inflation is never done, implying a continuous monitoring and potential adjustment of monetary policy [1] - The central bank tamed inflation so far and is in a good place, but needs to anticipate any potential future events [1] - The central bank is deciding meeting by meeting and is data dependent, looking at models, empirical data, and applying judgment [3] - The central bank is trying to capture elements not easily captured by models [3] Uncertainty and Risk Factors - Uncertainty is a key factor that entrepreneurs, corporates, and the central bank must deal with [1] - Models cannot perfectly predict political development, geopolitical changes, and shifts in global order [2] - The central bank needs to understand how political development, geopolitical changes, and shifts in global order impact the world and monetary policy [2] Future Actions - The central bank cannot say how high the bar is for cutting interest rates or what would make them do that [2]

I have been quite surprised at how resilient our economies have been and that has been the case in Europe. So we feared the worst and we had the bad but it wasn't as bad as we had anticipated in terms of growth uh inflation employment. I think that the economies have been very resilient and much more so than we had anticipated.How are tariffs affecting Europe's economy. Well, there is the direct impact and the indirect impact. In terms of direct impact, Europe has 17% of its trade with the United States.So, ...

📈 The below chart represents the ratio of all positive vs. negative comments across social media over the past 7 months. We have marked arrows next to the 4 most negative days since March, with the latest one occurring Friday after the US temporarily implemented 100% tariffs on China.😱 In every one of these cases, FUD took over due to world events that were (in hindsight) overreacted to from a market perspective. Retail's emotions often dictate that Bitcoin's and altcoins' prices are about to do the opposit ...

But as you look at the Bloomberg screen and let's say for the public for the balance of power public they don't know dollar yen from Naki stocky you look at the Dow negative 400 S&P down 1.3% NASDAQ hit down 1.8% 8% but I'd look also the way oil has pulled back. See American oil under 60 a barrel 58 handle on uh NYX crude global oil 60278 has come down $7 from a 70 level of a number of weeks ago. And then another way to look at it Joe is like the proway where we look at cross rates. And the first one I look ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expresses significant concern over the likelihood of a US stock market correction, predicting a potential drop of at least 10% within the next six months to two years, which he believes is underestimated by the market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Concerns - Dimon suggests that the probability of a market correction is around 30%, much higher than the 10% currently priced in by the market [2]. - He cites various factors contributing to market uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal spending, and increasingly aggressive government stances globally [2]. Group 2: Global Security and Risks - Dimon emphasizes the need for preparedness in a more dangerous world, referencing a shift in focus towards global security issues [3]. - He warns that the risks from inflation remain, and the full impact of previous tariffs has yet to be realized [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, echoes Dimon's concerns, stating that global resilience has not been fully tested and that uncertainty is the new normal [6][8]. - Experts from the Bank of England have noted a growing risk of a sudden correction in global markets, particularly due to inflated valuations in AI technology companies [6][7]. Group 4: AI Market Valuation - Dimon agrees with the assessment that equity market valuations, especially in the AI sector, appear stretched, indicating potential losses for investors in this area [7]. - He compares the current AI investment landscape to past technological advancements, suggesting that while AI will ultimately pay off, many investors may not see returns [7].

Core Insights - The global economy is performing better than anticipated despite significant shocks, but the resilience may not be sustainable, according to Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF [1][3] - Gold prices have surged to $4,000 an ounce, indicating investor concerns over a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The IMF forecasts a 3% growth for the global economy this year, attributing this to decisive economic policies, private sector adaptation, and less severe impacts from tariffs than initially feared [3] Economic Policies and Tariffs - Georgieva highlighted that the full effects of President Trump's tariffs are yet to be realized, with potential implications for inflation and monetary policy in the US [4][10] - The tariffs have created global uncertainty, affecting trade frameworks with countries like the UK and Vietnam [5] - There is a risk of additional tariff hikes due to a surplus of goods that were initially intended for the US market [6] Youth Discontent and Global Protests - There is a growing trend of youth discontent globally, with young people demanding better opportunities as they face a future of potentially lower earnings than their parents [7] - This discontent is manifesting in protests across various cities worldwide, indicating a significant socio-economic challenge [7] US Federal Debt Concerns - The US federal debt has escalated dramatically, from $380 billion in 1925 to $37.64 trillion in 2025, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [8] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that Trump's tax and spending policies will add $3.4 trillion to the national debt by 2034 [8]