Joining us now, Sylvia Jablonsky, Defiance ETF's co-founder and CEO. And we were talking about the some of the positive action we've seen in the stock market in the last what week and a half or so, which maybe calmed some of the fears that we did have earlier uh about whether we wouldn't have a Santa Claus rally. In fact, a lot of people said what we normally see in September and October, we were seeing in November. Some of the uh you know, we see a lot of lows set in October.I want to start with you with w ...

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Czech policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at the last four meetings, pointing to persistent services inflation and rapid wage growth https://t.co/AYiRrhObij ...

Australia’s annual wage growth remained elevated last quarter, underscoring a tight labor market and persistently weak productivity and suggesting inflationary pressures may take time to cool in a challenge for policy makers https://t.co/p62ld4rzNJ ...

Core Insights - The DoorDash report indicates that American families are adapting to rising prices by spending more wisely, while small businesses are stabilizing and wages are increasing, allowing paychecks to stretch further [1][15]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The "State of Local Commerce" report is based on millions of DoorDash transactions, providing insights into shifts in the U.S. economy [1]. - DoorDash analyzed affordability trends using three key measures: the Everyday Essentials Index, the Cheeseburger Index, and the Breakfast Basics Index, which reflect price changes across household goods, restaurant meals, and groceries [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The Everyday Essentials Index shows that the average cost of household staples has remained largely flat over the past year, while fast-casual dining costs have slightly increased [5]. - The Cheeseburger Index indicates a 3.8% increase in the cost of a classic meal, rising from $17.90 to $18.58 nationally, with significant city-to-city variations [6]. - The Breakfast Basics Index revealed a 14% price drop from March to September, primarily due to falling egg prices, although the national index has only decreased by 1.7% over the past year [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth - Since early 2024, wages have been rising faster than restaurant prices, particularly in Port St. Lucie, Florida, where wages increased by 6.1%, and Madison, Wisconsin, where they rose by 4.1% [15]. Group 4: Data Interpretation - DoorDash aims to make complex price data relatable through its indexes, allowing consumers to better understand affordability and price trends in everyday life [13][14]. - The variation in price trends from city to city highlights the complexity of the economic landscape, as noted by DoorDash's chief analytics officer [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on household balance sheet dynamics across Asian economies, particularly in relation to consumer spending trends in the region, including China and India [3][5]. Core Insights - **Household Debt and Consumer Spending**: The analysis suggests that household debt is not a primary constraint on consumer spending. Instead, sluggish wage growth and weak job creation are more significant factors affecting consumption [5][19][27]. - **Wage Growth**: Wage growth is identified as the key driver for consumer spending. The expectation is that a recovery in non-tech exports will improve wage growth and subsequently boost consumer spending [5][27][37]. - **China's Economic Conditions**: In China, retail sales growth has slowed to a year-to-date low of 3% year-on-year in September, influenced by fading effects from consumption trade-in programs and weak labor market conditions [29][34]. - **India's Household Debt**: India's household debt is not considered over-leveraged. The Reserve Bank of India's measure shows household debt at 42% of GDP, but when excluding business loans, it drops to 24% of GDP, indicating a healthier balance sheet [47][52]. Important Data Points - **Household Debt to GDP Ratios**: - China: 63% [41] - Malaysia: 85% [21] - India: 24% (excluding business loans) [47] - Australia: 121% [79] - **Wage Growth Trends**: - China: 4.5% [7] - Asia ex-China: 3.1% [7] - India: 7.3% [7] Additional Insights - **Trade Tensions**: Trade tensions have negatively impacted non-tech exports, contributing to weak labor market conditions and consumption [5][27]. - **Property Market Influence**: In China, the decline in property prices has negatively affected household balance sheets, overshadowing any positive effects from equity market performance [32][33]. - **Future Expectations**: A turnaround in non-tech exports is anticipated to begin early next year, which is expected to improve labor market conditions and consumer spending [27][37][68]. Regional Analysis - **Emerging Markets (EM) Asia**: Countries like Indonesia and the Philippines have low household debt to GDP ratios, which do not constrain consumption. Malaysia shows stable household debt growth in line with nominal GDP [57]. - **Developed Markets (DM) Asia**: Japan's household debt to GDP has declined to a five-year low of 62%, with real wage growth being a significant constraint on consumption [58][59]. In Korea, while household debt growth has stabilized, weak real wage growth continues to dampen consumption [68]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes that while household balance sheets are stable across many Asian economies, the primary constraints on consumer spending are related to labor market dynamics and wage growth rather than debt levels. The expected recovery in non-tech exports could provide a much-needed boost to consumer confidence and spending in the coming months [5][27][37].

Despite some growing consumer concerns, some signs of strength in CNBC's latest retail monitor report. For that, we'll turn to Steve Leeman this morning. Hi, Steve.Hey, Car. Yeah, consumer spending bounced back in October after a pretty sharp fall in September with gains in the CNBC NRF retail monitor across most sectors, adding up to a strong start for retail in the fourth quarter. That could be good for the holiday season.The retail monitor, we get actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions. ...

Core Insights - The lower-income consumer segment has been under pressure for the past 18 to 24 months, impacting fast food chains like Chipotle, where 30% of its business comes from households earning between $45,000 and $100,000 [2][4] - Despite challenges, certain fast food chains like Taco Bell, McDonald's, and Domino's have shown positive comparable sales growth, indicating resilience in the sector [4][5] - Casual dining has outperformed fast casual dining, contrary to expectations in a softer restaurant environment, particularly benefiting higher-income consumers [6] Company-Specific Insights - Starbucks faces potential labor shortages during the holiday season, but the current labor market is the loosest it has been in 10 years, which may ease hiring challenges [8][9] - Texas Roadhouse is highlighted as a top investment pick, trading at approximately $160, with strong revenue growth and a favorable earnings multiple of less than 18 times, despite concerns about inflationary pressures on beef [10][11]

All right, kind of a a a solid estimate there of job gains. However, in recent weeks, we've seen a number of layoffs. IBM just the latest uh saying they're going to cut a low single-digit percentage of its workforce, which you know is going to be thousands of people.Give us a sense. Does this report in your mind, does this show a blip or does it show kind of a rebound in what we're seeing. Because so far it's been a low hire, low fire year.>> It is. It has been. Although we have seen in in the latest number ...