Bank of America Institute is out with its consumer checkpoint for October. Debit and credit card spending increased by 2% year-over-year. That was actually the largest increase since December of 2024.Gains were up on a month-over-month basis as well. And joining us right now for a closer look is Liz Everett Chrisberg. She is the head of Bank of America Institute.Um Liz, this is really interesting because just this week we got NRF data that suggested the consumer actually slowed down in September. Your data ...

RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)Low-income earners are struggling:The 3-month average of the bottom 33% of Americans' after-tax YoY wage growth dropped to 0.9% in August, the slowest pace since 2016.This is a significant decline from the +3.0% seen at the beginning of the year.At the same time, the top third saw +3.6% YoY growth, the highest since November 2021.In other words, top earners’ wages are growing 4 TIMES faster than those of low-income consumers.By comparison, middle-income earners’ salar ...

Wage Growth - German wage growth experienced a jump in the second quarter [1] - Recent agreements suggest lower wage increases are expected in the future [1]

UK Economic Outlook - The recovery in UK living standards is ending [1] - This poses a potential challenge for Prime Minister Keir Starmer [1] Political Implications - Starmer has emphasized wage growth as evidence of his commitment to improving the financial well-being of "working people" [1]

Societal Trends & Challenges - The percentage of 30-year-olds who are married and homeowners has declined from 50% in the 1950s to 12% currently [1] - Young men may lack social skills, leading to increased online communication and fragile relationships [3] - Pornography consumption is high, with over 50% of 12-year-old boys watching it [5][6] - Dating sites are optimized for user retention rather than relationship formation, contributing to loneliness [7] Economic Factors - Home prices have increased significantly relative to income since 1980, making homeownership unaffordable for many individuals [10] - Stagnant real wage growth, coupled with student loan debt, makes it difficult for young people to start families and achieve financial stability [19] - Government intervention in housing and education through programs like the Federal Home Loan Program and Federal Student Loan Program may have created bubbles of inaffordability [16][17] Generational & Educational Issues - A generation was wrongly advised to pursue university education to avoid job automation, leading to significant debt [22][23][24] - Trade jobs like electricians and plumbers can offer high income and no debt, potentially surpassing the financial well-being of some professionals with advanced degrees [24][25] Mental Health - Major depressive episodes are prevalent among US adults aged 18-25 [13] - Excessive internet use and social media can exacerbate feelings of isolation and inadequacy [15]

Economic Challenges - Housing costs have significantly increased relative to income, posing affordability issues [1] - Student loan debt of $100,000 presents a substantial financial burden for young individuals [1] - Real wage growth has stagnated, except for high-income earners [1] - Low wages combined with high debt levels hinder the ability of younger generations to achieve the American dream [4] Political & Social Implications - The issue of real wage growth is expected to be a key topic in the next election cycle [2] - There is a growing disparity between top earners and minimum wage in the United States compared to other developed countries [3] - Slow job gains were observed in New York City during the first half of 2025 [3] Generational Impact - Previous generations have negatively impacted younger generations due to rising costs of homes and education [1] - Young people are facing difficulties in the job market [4]

Labor Market & Wage Growth - Australia's annual wage growth remained elevated last quarter [1] - The report underscores a tight labor market [1] Productivity & Economic Challenges - Persistently weak productivity is a key challenge [1] - The Reserve Bank seeks to rein in cost pressures [1]

Wage Growth vs Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are experiencing the most financial strain [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. added 209,000 non-farm jobs in July, exceeding expectations of 180,000, marking the ninth consecutive month of better-than-expected job growth [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.6% to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2021 [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 4.0% year-on-year, the lowest since mid-2021, down from 4.1% [1] Group 2 - Job losses were noted in retail (-9,000) and transportation and warehousing (-11,000), indicating companies are cutting non-essential positions [1] - The unemployment rate of 4.1% is close to the Federal Reserve's tolerance limit, historically indicating a potential policy shift when exceeding 4% [1] - The wage-inflation spiral is loosening, with hourly wage growth narrowing for four consecutive quarters, easing upward price pressures [1] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8%, marking the largest drop in a month, as expectations for interest rate cuts increased [1] - Spot gold surged by 1.2%, reaching $2,370, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped by 15 basis points, marking the best single-day performance in three months [1] Group 4 - The market is now pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 68% before the data release [1] - CME interest rate futures indicate the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, in September and December [1] - The narrowing of high-yield bond spreads suggests a potential decrease in borrowing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 5 - Ordinary investors are advised to increase holdings in medium to long-term U.S. Treasuries and allocate to gold ETFs while remaining cautious on cyclical stocks [1]

Wage Growth vs Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are experiencing the most financial strain [1]