Wage Growth Trends - Wage growth for American "job-stayers" now outpaces that for "job-switchers" for the first time in 15 years [1] - This is a visible sign of a wider trend in the labor market [1]

Summary of China Wage Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese labor market**, specifically wage growth trends and their implications for household income and consumption [3][4][26]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Wage Growth Trends**: - The revamped wage tracker indicates a **downward trend in wage growth** since Q1 2023, following the exit from the zero-Covid policy. Wage growth dropped to **3.9% year-over-year (yoy)** in Q2 2025, the lowest reading outside of the Covid pandemic [3][26]. - In Q1 2025, wage growth was **4.2% yoy**, down from **4.5% yoy** in Q4 2024 [26]. 2. **Challenges in Data Collection**: - Tracking wage data in China is challenging due to **scarcity and measurement issues**. The release of the PBOC survey data has been significantly delayed, with the most recent data available being from **2024Q4** [3][4][5]. - The online recruiting platform Zhaopin.com ceased data publication in Q4 2024, further complicating data tracking [5]. 3. **Revamped Wage Tracker Methodology**: - The new wage tracker incorporates two alternative labor market indicators: - **Employment sub-indices from various PMI surveys**, which correlate highly with wage growth and indicate the labor market is near its weakest in a decade [3][11]. - **Unemployment insurance expenditure**, which correlates positively with the official unemployment rate and negatively with wage growth [14][19]. 4. **Economic Implications**: - Despite a **5.3% real GDP growth** in the first half of 2025, sluggish wage growth may pose headwinds to consumption growth in the latter half of the year [11][26]. - The correlation between increased labor market pressure and declining wage growth has become more pronounced since the onset of the Covid pandemic [19]. 5. **Comparison with Official Data**: - The new wage tracker suggests that the reported wage growth figures are around **1 percentage point lower** than the official figures provided by the NBS, which reported **5.2% and 4.7% yoy** for Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively [26]. Additional Important Insights - The revamped wage tracker was first introduced in **2016** and last modified in **June 2024**. The current modifications aim to provide a more accurate reflection of the labor market conditions in China [4][24]. - The unemployment insurance program serves as a valuable indicator of labor market pressure, with increased expenditure often coinciding with slower wage growth [14][19]. - The methodology for the new wage tracker includes regression analysis based on historical data from **2020 to 2024**, ensuring that the new estimates are grounded in empirical evidence [24][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the state of wage growth in China, the challenges faced in data collection, and the implications for the broader economy.

Hungary registered the slowest wage growth in more than two years in May, showing consumers’ fading spending power to help reinvigorate the economy https://t.co/jOU7xraGXy ...

Consumer Spending Trends - Bank of America Institute data indicates a 2% increase in debit and credit card spending in June [1] - While consumer spending rebounded in June, it didn't fully offset earlier declines, suggesting a cooling trend [2] - Lower-income households are primarily driving the pullback in spending, while higher-income household spending accelerated by 1.2% [5] - Discretionary travel spending is declining, but restaurant spending shows a dichotomy, with fewer households dining out but spending more per transaction [6][7] Income and Wage Growth - Higher-income households experienced accelerated after-tax wage growth, nearing 3%, for the third consecutive month [9] - Lower-income households saw decelerated after-tax wage growth, increasing by 1.6% compared to 1.8% previously [10] Credit Card Usage - Younger generations entering a challenging labor market are a focal point regarding credit card usage [11]

Florida is the place to be if you’re hoping for fast-growing wages. See if your city made the list: https://t.co/6BAKHEQM4KPhoto: Getty Images https://t.co/xrP0RQAOUF ...

Florida is the place to be if you’re hoping for fast-growing wages. See if your city made the list: https://t.co/ShvkpXYTOqPhoto: Getty Images https://t.co/nQs1qe2zQe ...

We've had the decision from the MPC to keep interest rates unchanged by a margin of 6 to 3, a bit closer than some had expected. Just take us through the thinking there. So we decided to hold rates at 4.25%.Today, we have been able to cut rates four times over the last year. But given the uncertainty facing the economy, we decided to hold at this event. And one of those uncertainties, of course, are the unfolding events in the Middle East and the impact that could have on the oil price.At what point would t ...