Financial Performance - ELF earnings beat expectations, but revenue of $344 million was $22 million short of estimates [1] - Shares are currently down 16% [1] - Guidance for earnings and revenue are both well short of the current consensus [1] Cost Analysis - Gross margins decreased by 165 basis points, driven by higher tariffs [1]

Trade & Tariffs - A 20% tariff was initially imposed on China due to fentanyl concerns [1] - The tariff on China was reduced from 20% to 10%, a 10% decrease [1] - Rare earth issue has been resolved globally [1] International Relations - The meeting was considered amazing and friendly [1][2] - The meeting was beneficial for two large, powerful countries [2] Fentanyl - Commitment to work hard to stop the flow of fentanyl [1]

Trade Relations & Tariffs - The US-Canada trade relationship is significant, with Canada being a major trading partner and neighbor [1] - Unilateral imposition of tariffs by the US President is seen as potentially exceeding presidential authority and harming both other countries and Americans [2] - Tariffs are being used as a political tool against those who criticize the President's policies, rather than for legitimate emergency purposes [7] Supreme Court's Role - The Supreme Court's inaction on the tariff issue is perceived as offering a form of approval [8] - The Supreme Court is urged to clarify the limits of presidential power regarding tariffs and prevent the misuse of tariff powers [2][7] - The Supreme Court's handling of the issue is impacting public opinion [3] Political & Economic Impact - Tariffs are negatively impacting the American economy [2] - The President's actions regarding tariffs are described as deeply personal and potentially influenced by political motivations [6]

Trade Policy - Ford坚决支持里根时期的反关税广告 [1] - 公司“实现了目标” [1]

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Trade Policy - The US imposes an additional 10% tariff on Canada [1]

Tariff Impact - The report highlights 10 specific import categories affected by President Trump's tariff wars [1] - The first five categories mentioned have the highest probability of facing tariffs when entering the United States [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased 1% sequentially to $3 billion, with the Alumina segment seeing a 9% decrease in third-party revenue due to lower volumes and bauxite prices [16] - Net income attributable to Alcoa was $232 million, up from $164 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share increasing to $0.88 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, reflecting a sequential decrease of $43 million primarily due to increased U.S. Section 232 tariff costs [18][19] - Year-to-date return on equity was 14.5%, and cash flow activities included a tax refund of $69 million from the Australian Tax Office [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased 9% due to lower volumes and prices, while the Aluminum segment saw a 4% increase in revenue driven by higher average realized prices [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Alumina segment decreased by $72 million, while the Aluminum segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by $210 million due to higher metal prices and lower alumina costs [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alumina prices have declined significantly, with recent prices around $315 per metric ton due to ample spot availability and refinery expansions in Indonesia and China [26] - LME prices rose approximately 7% sequentially, recently reaching $2,775 per metric ton, reflecting a combination of factors including a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent supply tightness [29] - The Midwest premium increased during the third quarter, reaching import parity, which reflects declining inventories and reduced aluminum imports [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing profitability through higher shipments, improved operations, and key investments such as the Messina Energy contract and anode bake furnace [14] - A new long-term energy contract for Messina operations was announced, along with a $60 million investment in the anode bake furnace to enhance operational efficiency [12] - The company is evaluating M&A opportunities across the product line but does not have a specific focus at this time [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of safety following a workplace fatality and reiterated their commitment to providing a safe working environment [5][6] - The outlook for the Alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million in 2025, while the Aluminum segment anticipates unfavorable impacts of about $20 million due to restart inefficiencies [23][24] - Management noted that demand remains steady across Europe and North America, with healthy growth in packaging and electrical sectors, while the automotive sector is weak [31][32] Other Important Information - The company announced a partnership with the U.S. and Australian governments to develop a gallium plant at the Wagerup alumina refinery, which is expected to provide strategic benefits [10][11] - The Kwinana refinery's permanent closure resulted in significant asset retirement obligations, impacting the financial results [8][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital allocation and M&A opportunities - Management indicated that they are close to their net debt target and will prioritize debt repayment while evaluating returns to shareholders and growth options [40][41] Question: U.S.-Australia Alcoa partnership - The partnership was initiated with Japanese entities and aims to establish a gallium supply chain outside of China, with first production expected by 2026 [45][48] Question: Canadian negotiations and domestic capacity expansion - Management is providing information to both U.S. and Canadian governments regarding trade flows and noted that competitive energy prices for long-term contracts in the U.S. are still lacking [54][55] Question: Gallium project economics and mining permitting - The gallium project is not a large investment and will be financed by several governments, with no impact on the ongoing mining permitting process [66][67] Question: Interest in idled assets and data centers - Management confirmed ongoing interest in data centers and AI centers, with significant efforts to market sites with existing electrical infrastructure [120] Question: Demand profile and market conditions - Management does not see significant demand destruction but noted weakness in the automotive sector, attributing it to potential substitution by electric vehicles from China [122]

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Americans are set to pay more than half of President Donald Trump’s tariff costs as companies raise prices, according to Goldman Sachs economists https://t.co/L04IgE1sdF ...