Financial Performance - Rivian's Q2 loss was wider than expected at $080 per share, compared to the expected loss of $065 per share [1] - Q2 revenue was roughly in line with expectations at $13 billion [1] - The company swung to a gross loss of $26 million in Q2 after two straight quarters of gross profit [1] - Rivian is widening its full-year loss expectation to a range of $2 billion to $225 billion, previously expecting a loss of $17 billion to $19 billion [2] Production and Supply Chain - Lower Q2 production was driven by changes in trade policy, specifically the control of heavy rare earth metal exports from China [3] - Supply chain uncertainty and constrained suppliers led to a significant drop in production from over 14000 units in Q1 to around 6000 units in Q2 [4] - Rivian developed solutions during Q2 to address the heavy rare earth metal shortage, aiming for higher production levels in Q3 and Q4 [6][7] - The company expects to deliver between 40000 and 46000 vehicles for the full year [2] Future Outlook - Rivian is confident that Q3 and Q4 production will return to much higher levels, allowing for more vehicles to be produced in the second half of 2025 relative to the first half [7] - The company is excited about the R2 next-generation model, with a target starting price of $45000 [7][8] - Rivian has thoughtfully sourced materials for R2, including heavy earth metals, to protect against potential export challenges [9]

Trade Policy - The report focuses on news regarding the White House's trade policy [1] Source - CNBC's Eamon Javers is reporting the news [1]

While uncertainty around Donald Trump's trade policy is curbing Canadian businesses investment and consumer spending, firms see the country's economy avoiding the worst recessionary outcomes, central bank surveys show https://t.co/7EvKOsJoyw ...

Trade Deficit and Tariff Impact - The trade deficit has widened, partly due to retaliatory measures from other countries in response to the US's more aggressive trade policies [3][4] - Blanket tariffs are not seen as effective in addressing trade imbalances, with little support outside the administration [18] - There's concern that tariffs are more performative than strategic, causing market downturns without achieving reshoring or manufacturing goals [5][6] US Economic Position and Trade Relations - The US is considered the most desirable economic market, but its reputation is being damaged by perceived bullying tactics and disregard for the rule of law [14][15] - Other trading partners are questioning whether they can rely on the US's word, potentially seeking alternatives [16] - The administration's approach is putting US businesses in a difficult situation [16] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The administration is expected to collect $3.7 trillion in tariffs, potentially to offset tax cuts, but this cost will ultimately be borne by American businesses and consumers [11] - Tariffs are viewed as a tax on American businesses and consumers, despite being presented as a toll on access to the US market [10] - Companies dependent on foreign inputs may face layoffs or business closures due to tariffs [12] Alternative Trade Strategies - Sectoral targets, focusing on specific industries and egregious behavior, are considered a more effective and targeted approach than blanket tariffs [17][18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported conversion revenue for Q1 2025 of $363 million, a decrease of approximately $4 million or 1% year-over-year [13] - Adjusted operating income for Q1 was $43 million, up $18 million year-over-year [16] - Reported net income for Q1 was $22 million or $1.31 per diluted share, compared to $18 million or $1.12 per diluted share in the prior year [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $73 million, an increase of approximately $19 million from the prior year period [18] - The effective tax rate for Q1 was 25%, compared to 23% in Q1 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and high strength conversion revenue totaled $121 million, down $16 million or approximately 12%, reflecting a 10% decline in shipments [13] - Packaging conversion revenue totaled $127 million, up $9 million or approximately 8% year-over-year, despite a 9% decline in shipments [14] - General engineering conversion revenue for Q1 was $84 million, up $3 million or 4% year-over-year, with a 12% increase in shipments [15] - Automotive conversion revenue of $32 million increased modestly by 2% year-over-year, despite a 9% decrease in shipments [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand in business jet, defense, and space sectors, while commercial aircraft OEM demand was down [13] - Trade policies have created a favorable environment for general engineering, driving higher demand and solid pricing [15] - The company expects to see continued orders in the aerospace sector as production ramps up [54] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing overhead and maintaining its position as a low-cost producer [6] - Major investments include a new coating line at the Warwick rolling mill and the Trentwood Phase seven project, expected to drive EBITDA and margin performance [9][10] - The company is well-positioned to navigate market volatility due to its North American supply chain and metal-neutral contracts [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining strong momentum through 2025, despite ongoing trade policy volatility [6] - The outlook for all end markets remains consistent, with expectations of 5% to 10% growth year-over-year in conversion revenue for 2025 [27] - The company raised its full-year 2025 EBITDA expectations by 5% to 10% above recasted 2024 adjusted EBITDA [27] Other Important Information - The company changed its inventory valuation methodology from LIFO to weighted average cost effective January 1, impacting comparability of results [12] - The company generated solid cash flow from operations of $57 million during Q1, with capital expenditures totaling $38 million [20] - A quarterly dividend of $0.77 per common share was declared, reflecting confidence in long-term strategy [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin progression and guidance - Management clarified that the margin progression was influenced by inventory changes and market price recognition, with expectations of returning to mid-20% margins as investments come online [31][35] Question: Shipments in packaging - Management indicated that the focus on coated and value-added products will continue, with significant increases expected in conversion revenue in the second half of the year [40] Question: Automotive market resilience - Management expressed confidence in the automotive segment, noting strong positions in light trucks and SUVs, and highlighted the relatively small impact of automotive on overall business [44][46] Question: Aerospace destocking cycle - Management believes the company is midway through the destocking cycle in aerospace, with expectations of continued orders as production ramps up [54]