France’s economy is set to keep growing through the first half of next year, overcoming heightened political and budget uncertainty. https://t.co/VSDAC67MGp ...

There's no doubt that the Western world needs Europe to be more successful. We need to see higher economic growth in Europe. We need to see more innovation. We need to see more consumer demand for goods and services because the Western world will only be strong and prosperous if we have a strong and prosperous Europe.>> What does the road ahead to get that strong and prosperous Europe look like. How do we get there. Look, I think I think Mario Draghi did a fantastic job putting forth a playbook for how to r ...

Core Insights - The last time the Consumer Price Index rose by less than 1% over 12 months without a pandemic was in July 2016 [1] - Kevin Hassett predicts a potential return to low inflation and strong economic growth similar to the late 2010s, with a target inflation rate of 1% and economic growth of 3% [2][3] - Achieving a 1% inflation rate would significantly benefit consumers, extending the time for prices to double from 24 years to approximately 72 years [2] Economic Outlook - A combination of 1% inflation and 3% economic growth is seen as possible but unlikely in the near term, as inflation has not been below the Federal Reserve's target of 2% since 2021 [3] - Most forecasters do not expect inflation to drop below 2% for several years, indicating a challenging economic environment ahead [5] Policy Implications - Hassett believes that the economic policies from the Trump administration could eventually lead to lower inflation rates [4] - Although Hassett is not the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, he remains favored in prediction markets [4]

Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to perform well in the upcoming year due to a combination of factors including lower oil prices, tax cuts, and a new Federal Reserve chairman [5][25][43] - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with Brent crude below $60 per barrel and West Texas around $55, down from $80 at the start of the year, which is anticipated to lower inflation [7][21][23] Job Market - The recent jobs report showed an increase in private sector jobs, averaging 75,000 over the past three months and 88,000 over the last year, despite a decline in federal jobs by nearly 300,000 [6][10][16] - Wage growth for production workers has increased, with average hourly earnings rising at an annual rate of 1.6%, although there are concerns about tapering wage growth [11][12] Consumer Impact - Lower oil prices are viewed as a tax cut for consumers, which is expected to support household spending and overall economic growth [18][20][25] - The reduction in oil prices is seen as beneficial for lower-income individuals, who are typically more affected by price spikes [13][14] Stock Market Performance - The stock market has shown significant gains, with the S&P 500 up approximately 35% since early April, indicating positive investor sentiment about future economic conditions [40][41][42] - The Dow Jones transport index and the small cap Russell 2000 have also seen substantial increases, suggesting a broad-based market recovery [41][42] Future Projections - Anticipation of a strong economic year in 2026 is based on current trends in job openings, productivity, and capital spending [19][32][36] - The upcoming CPI report is expected to provide insights into the impact of lower oil prices on inflation [31]

Ireland’s biggest business lobby group expects economic growth to moderate in 2026 on a hiring slowdown https://t.co/ODL3heglJy ...

Fed Policy & Market Liquidity - The market should take the Fed's storyline with a grain of salt, as they tend to downplay the impact of their balance sheet on risk assets [7] - The Fed's QE, even when disguised as reserve management purchases (RMPs), adds liquidity to the system and monetizes debt, which is a positive signal for risk assets [5][6] - The market reacted positively to the FOMC meeting due to the Fed's balance sheet actions [7] - The industry anticipates a more dovish Fed in the future, which is generally bullish for risk assets [14] Economic Data & Growth - Economic data is noisy and subject to revisions, with 15 million job revisions in 2023 and 2024 [2] - Despite the noise, the trend shows good growth data, high productivity, and rising real wages, though not fast enough to concern the Fed [3] - The economy may be in a Goldilocks scenario, similar to the 1990s, which is positive for equity markets [12] - The US had two consecutive quarters of 4% growth without significant job creation, indicating a productivity story [11] Market Outlook & Risks - The market expects a test for the new Fed chair, similar to what happened with previous chairs [8][9] - Lower oil prices and potentially lower mortgage rates support a bullish outlook [13] - The credibility of the new Fed makeup and potential machinations within the committee could create bumps in the market [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve chair could significantly impact investment strategies, with different approaches recommended depending on whether Kevin Hasset or Kevin Worsh is appointed [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies Based on Fed Chair Candidates - If Kevin Hasset is chosen as the next Fed chair, the recommended investment strategy would focus on small-cap stocks, which typically benefit from economic growth and have a higher proportion of floating rate debt (60% for small caps vs. 30% for large caps) [3][4]. - In contrast, if Kevin Worsh is appointed, the financial sector stocks, particularly the financial sector ETF XLF, would be favored due to his experience and perceived market trust, which could lead to a steepening yield curve benefiting banks [5][6]. Group 2: Alternative Investment Options - For investors uncertain about which candidate will be selected, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) is suggested as a stable option. This ETF includes companies with strong pricing power that can maintain dividends in a lower interest rate environment, providing diversification across sectors such as financials, healthcare, tech, and consumer staples [8]. - This strategy is characterized by lower volatility and expected rewards, but it is anticipated to perform well under both potential scenarios of Fed leadership [9].

There's no doubt that the Western world needs Europe to be more successful. We need to see higher economic growth in Europe. We need to see more innovation. We need to see more consumer demand for goods and services because the Western world will only be strong and prosperous if we have a strong and prosperous Europe.What is the road ahead to get that strong and prosperous Europe look like. How do we get there. Look, I think I think Mario Draghi did a fantastic job putting forth a playbook for how to revita ...

with no real signs of life anywhere else in universe. How fortunate we are to live on this fantastic planet full of life and with breathtaking beauty. And still we exploit and mistreat it as if we are planning to leave ignoring the needs and the rights of future generations.The question for us now is can we change the course and redefine the limits for our life here on earth. For this we need good advice. So I turn to Albert Einstein who said, "The future is not a gift, it is an achievement." We can probabl ...

Joining us this morning with some reaction. First from the White House is the National Economic Council Director Kevin Asset. Kevin, good morning.Good to have you. >> Great to be here. >> Uh, lot of information uh that the streets trying to absorb.How do you characterize both October and November. >> Yeah, I think it's best to sort of combine the two. And if you do that, then you're looking at private sector gains of about 120,000, maybe 121.And then uh we dropped about 160,000 government workers, federal g ...