Interest rates are still not low enough.We need sub-3% as soon as possible. ...

Fed Policy Stance - The market interprets the Fed's recent actions as a dovish meeting rather than a hawkish cut, despite the rate cut [1][2][7][10] - The Fed is perceived to be more focused on employment risks, specifically the potential rise in unemployment, than on inflationary pressures [6] - The Fed seems to downplay inflationary risks, suggesting good progress on inflation, if not for tariffs [3][4][5] Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT) - The Fed has unexpectedly ramped up QE by $40 billion, after a period of QT, raising hopes for further QE if needed [7] Interest Rate Dynamics - Despite the Fed dropping rates by 175 basis points since September, the 2-year Treasury rate remains unchanged [6] - The Fed funds rate is now in line with the 2-year Treasury yield [5][6] - Long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have risen by approximately 75 basis points since the Fed started cutting rates [8][9] - The 2s30s Treasury curve has steepened to around 123-124 basis points, approaching the year's high of 130 basis points [10] Economic Assessment - The Fed estimates that monthly jobs gains are overstated by approximately 60,000, suggesting a potentially weaker labor market than reported [2] - The market believes that cutting interest rates is not helpful for long-term interest rates [9] - Cutting rates by 175 basis points has not helped the housing market [8]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for cuts to support a cooling labor market, while others caution that excessive cuts could reignite inflation [2][11][20] - Current market expectations indicate a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated, but the actual impact of the Fed's statements moving forward is uncertain [1][5][6] - The affordability crisis for consumers is exacerbated by high borrowing costs, as credit card and auto loan rates have not decreased in line with Fed rate cuts, leading to increased debt burdens for families [17][18][30] 分组2 - The economy is showing signs of growth, with a projected GDP growth of around 3.5%, largely driven by AI-related capital expenditures, which may mask underlying weaknesses in the broader economy [23][32][34] - The disconnect between reported economic growth and consumer sentiment highlights that those without significant financial assets are not benefiting from the current economic conditions [31][34] - The Fed's decision-making is influenced by the need to address affordability issues, as the benefits of economic growth are not evenly distributed across the population [32][36]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is expected to influence the 10-year Treasury yield and subsequently affect mortgage rates [1] Group 1 - The Fed's interest rate decision is a critical factor for the movement of the 10-year Treasury yield [1] - Changes in the 10-year Treasury yield will have a direct impact on mortgage rates [1]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, but there will be significant dissent regarding the adequacy of a 25 basis point cut, with some arguing it is insufficient given ongoing inflation concerns [2][4] - Current inflation remains above the 2% target, and there are worries about the labor market not showing strong declines, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3][9] Fed Independence and Diverging Opinions - There are concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with varying opinions among officials on the appropriate course of action regarding interest rates [4][6] - Divergent views on the economy lead to uncertainty, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive rate cut while others oppose any cuts [6][7] Inflation and Labor Market Dynamics - The last inflation reading showed a decline, but there are fears that higher inflation could return due to tariffs affecting consumers and businesses [8][10] - Wage growth has increased from an average of 1.5% before the pandemic to 2-3% now, influenced by the retirement of baby boomers, which may contribute to persistent inflationary pressures [11]

Hi indeed, Carl. This is October read for Jolts. Uh 7,670,000.That's not a bad number. 7670 actually would be the strongest number going back to well going back to May when we were 70 7.7% million and change. So that's pretty decent.And considering that the expectation was for a number around 7.1% million. So it's definitely better than expected. We're also getting leading economic indicators which have been leading us in a negative lately.This is September read coming in exactly at is matching expectations ...

Key TakeawaysAustralia's central bank (RBA) maintained a hawkish stance, with Governor Bullock highlighting increased upside risks to inflation and the board's readiness to take necessary action, despite holding current rates.Japanese 2-year government bond yields surged to 1.065%, reaching their highest level since July 2007, as officials closely monitor forex market trends.Fintech firm Revolut completed a $75 billion funding round in November and is offering former employees the opportunity to sell shares ...

About Us Reviews Site Map Your Ad Choices Advertising Contact us IBD Stock Charts IBD Stock Checkup Stock Quotes Stock Market Today The Big Picture My Stock Lists Terms of Use Privacy Notice Accessibility About Us Reviews Site Map Your Ad Choices Advertising Contact us IBD Stock Charts IBD Stock Checkup Stock Quotes Stock Market Today The Big Picture My Stock Lists IBD Live Leaderboard SwingTrader MarketSurge IBD Digital MarketDiem The Wall Street Journal Barron's MarketWatch Dow Jones Smart Money Connect W ...

Good morning, Sarah. Yeah, some good breaking news from the New York Fed with inflation expectations unchanged and labor market indicators improving. Let's go through them.The one-year, the three-year, and the 5-year uh inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey all unchanged. 3 2 3 and three. Now, these are all a bit elevated, but it's good news that they're not going up.Inflation expectations rise for food, gas, medical care, a big increase there, and rent as well. Now, there's fodder for both ha ...

Stocks may move to the upside in early trading on Monday, adding to the modest gains posted during last Friday's session. The major index futures are currently pointing to a slightly higher open for the , with the S&P 500 futures up by 0.1 percent.Optimism about the outlook for interest rates may contribute to initial strength on Wall Street ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting this week.With the Fed widely expected to lower interest rates by another quarter point, traders are likely to p ...