President Trump says it's highly unlikely he will fire Fed Chairman Pal. But if the president in fact did want to remove Pal from his position, uh what would the process uh look like. Joining us with more on that, Jonathan Caner, former assistant attorney general in the Biden administration.He's also a CNBC uh contributor and our senior economics reporter uh Steve Leeman. I I would uh Jonathan I would say well he said he's not going to do it but um about a month or two ago there was some conjecture and he s ...

Why don't we start off with yesterday. Uh, you know, there was reports from a White House source that the president was very close to firing J. Pal.The president then spoke during a news conference saying that's highly unlikely. Um, just that drama and we saw the action in the bond market, the equity market and with the dollar. Does that drama change the view of US markets right now.Look, it it it matters. Um, but uh I'm not sure the thing that matters most. um when you're looking at what's really driving m ...

President Trump. Um, enough about me. Now you talk about him.Confirming he has no plans to fire Fed chair J. Pal, downplaying earlier reports that suggested otherwise. Joining us now with the latest on this story and what firing pal could mean for the markets, Nick Timosro, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent.Earlier, Nick, we Fed whisperer. Fed he is. He's uh he's got if you read it from him, you you probably can trust u what he's saying.But my point earlier was, have you ever heard anyone ar ...

Anything left unsaid, anything that we need to give extra emphasis to. Do you think when it comes to President Trump's criticism of Chair Powell and how this still sits in the market, I was wondering whether we get any clues from what happens at the short end of the U.S. Treasury curve as to how much Fed independence there is, I suppose how much the two moves on criticism from the White House. I think that's a great way to look at it in terms of like we did see the tear come lower but didn't completely coll ...

>> THE FAKE NEWS IS SAYING, IF YOU FIRED HIM, IT WOULD BE SO BAD. SO WE HAVE A STUPID PERSON. I KNOW THREE OR FOUR PEOPLE, WHO YOU ALL ARE GOING TO PICK.I WOULD LOVE HIM TO RESIGN IF HE WANTED TO. HE'S DONE A LOUSY JOB. JEROME POWELL HAS BEEN BAD FOR OUR COUNTRY.WE SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST INTEREST RATE ON EARTH AND WE DON'T. HE REFUSES TO DO IT. YET, HE IS SPENDING TWO POINT $5 BILLION REBUILDING THE FED. HE IS A TERRIBLE FED CHAIR.I'M SURPRISED HE WAS APPOINTED. WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON DOING ANYTHING. WE ARE ...

camera and joining us today for a big story, the big story for the markets today. Let's get more reaction on the fed with Jefferies chief market strategist and CNBC contributor David Zervos. David, it's great to have you on. You know, it's interesting because you're on CNBC.Earlier today, as we were getting reports that Trump was drafting this letter and planning to potentially do this. And then right after that hearing from the president himself that it's unlikely. And, you know, I sort of leave that with ...

I mean speaking of rates, you've been for last year or so at least higher for longer camp and Fed for the better part of the year has been on hold. So that's been right. What do you think happens next. Well, you know, the trajectory here, you know, you're asking what happens next.You're talking about in 2025. You think we'll get a few cuts. I I think there's I think there's a reasonable chance we get a cut or two.Um but not certain. And you know I think the market is absorbing the trade policy but on the ca ...

Market & Economic Outlook - The market is closely watching CPI data [1] - The market believes it can tolerate tariffs of 10-12%, potentially 30% on China, resulting in an average of 15% tariffs [5] - The market anticipates that the positives from AI revolution, Trump deregulation, and tax cut extensions will offset the impact of tariffs [6] - A 30% across-the-board tariff is considered quite damaging [6] Trade & Tariffs - The absence of reciprocal tariffs seen earlier in April is a key factor [4] - The market does not anticipate the implementation of 30% tariffs [4] - Trump's flexibility, as demonstrated by the Nvidia news, suggests potential extensions for tariffs [5] Fiscal Policy & Tax Cuts - The extension of tax cuts and 100% expensing are viewed favorably [9] - The current fiscal situation is largely in line with expectations from Trump's campaign promises [10] - Failure to revert to Obama-era tax levels contributes to a $3 trillion 10-year deficit [11] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The drama at the Fed is unprecedented [6] - There is a view that the Fed should cut rates [11] - Fed independence is considered extremely important [12] - Dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is minimal [13][14] Technological Innovation - AI is seen as a solution for firms facing higher prices due to tariffs [7] - AI is still on the march [7] - Nvidia news is spurring the NASDAQ to new all-time highs [8]

Market Trends & Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high just shy of $112,000 [1] - Bitcoin ETFs are seeing billions of dollars flowing in [1] - Bitcoin-related companies like Block and MicroStrategy are rising [1] Currency & Dollar Weakness - The dollar has declined over 10% year-to-date [3] - Lower front-end interest rates, reallocation out of the US, and hedging are driving dollar weakness [4][5] - The dollar's decline may continue due to allocation shifts and historical trends [6][7] - The dollar is at roughly fair value, but currencies never stop at fair value [6] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Expectation of less Fed independence is causing a change in Fed funds expectations next year, with the market expecting significantly lower interest rates around May/June [10] - Less Fed independence is causing slightly higher longer-term inflation expectations [10] - Foreign investors holding US treasuries in very short tenor bonds (three years and less) may let them expire, impacting demand [12] Treasury & Stablecoins - Relaxing the SLR (supplementary leverage ratio) could help Treasury demand [14] - Increased demand for stablecoins, backed by Treasury bills, could help short-end demand but steepen the yield curve [14][15] - The long end of the yield curve, impacting mortgage rates and business loans, will be hard for the Treasury to control [15] Equity Markets & Valuation - US stocks are fairly richly valued at 22 times 12-month forward price earnings, especially versus peers overseas [17] - Concentration and bullishness are increasing in equity markets [18] - Higher inflation and significantly slower growth are expected later this year [19]

Economic Assessment - The US economy is likened to a middle-aged man with potential but needs to trim "fat," suggesting areas for improvement [1][2] - High debt levels and policies undermining Federal Reserve independence could increase inflation [3] - Policies less focused on economic growth and more on political objectives, such as tariffs and immigration, are causing economic strain [3][4] Risks and Concerns - Policy decisions are shifting away from economic growth towards political objectives [3] - These issues may not be immediately fatal to the economy but are detrimental to its health [4]