Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q4 revenue of $704 million, representing a high single-digit increase year-over-year and exceeding prior guidance [5][11] - Full year 2025 revenue was $2.66 billion, flat compared to the prior year, but showed improving momentum throughout the year [7][12] - Q4 non-GAAP EPS was $0.71, surpassing the guidance range of $0.62-$0.68 [11] - Gross margin for Q4 was 10.6%, up 50 basis points sequentially and 20 basis points year-over-year [11][12] - Operating margin for Q4 was 5.5%, demonstrating leverage in the company's model [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semi-Cap revenue decreased 8% quarter-over-quarter and 14% year-over-year, but full year revenue grew 2% [12][13] - Industrial revenue was flat for the full year but up 3% year-over-year [13] - A&D revenue grew 17% year-over-year and 19% for the full year [13] - Medical revenue increased 23% year-over-year in Q4, leading to 7% growth for the full year [13] - AC&C revenue rebounded in Q4, up 27% year-over-year, with expectations for continued growth [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted improved sell-through and healthier end demand across sectors as channel inventory normalized [20] - The semi-cap sector is expected to see a demand inflection in the back half of 2026, with early signs of improvement [21][22] - Industrial sector performance is expected to gradually improve throughout 2026, driven by demand in transportation and HVAC [22] - A&D revenue growth is expected to moderate in 2026 due to program timing, but bookings momentum in space applications is promising [23][24] - Medical sector is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth in 2026, supported by strong bookings in MedTech [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company targets five core high-value markets, focusing on complex, high-mix opportunities while avoiding commoditized markets [8] - Continued investment in global precision technology and production equipment is planned to align with new business wins [10][16] - The company aims to improve working capital efficiency and maintain positive free cash flow while investing in growth [9][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the momentum of bookings and operational execution, particularly in medical and AC&C sectors [9][20] - The company anticipates a strong recovery in the semi-cap sector in 2026, with proactive capacity planning already in place [10][59] - Management remains optimistic about mid-single-digit growth guidance for 2026, with potential for further strengthening as visibility improves [26] Other Important Information - The company generated $85 million in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025 and maintained a net cash positive position of $111 million [15][16] - An $11.1 million non-cash impairment was recorded on certain assets due to program end-of-life [18] - The cash conversion cycle improved to 67 days, with significant improvements in inventory management [17][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Areas of increased confidence beyond Semi-Cap - Management indicated that medical and AC&C sectors have shown improved momentum, with industrial gradually picking up as well [31][32] Question: Thoughts on gross margins and operating leverage - Management noted that while gross margins are stable, operating margins are where leverage can be realized as revenue accelerates [33][34] Question: Expansion of Total Addressable Market (TAM) in industrial - Management highlighted the broad nature of the industrial segment, with opportunities in HVAC, transportation, and agriculture [41][43] Question: Insights on space applications and bookings - Management expressed excitement about the momentum in space bookings, which is expected to contribute positively to A&D growth [44][45] Question: Details on medical program wins and momentum - Management confirmed ongoing success in medical devices and life sciences, with expectations for continued growth into 2026 [55][56] Question: Timeline for semi-cap recovery - Management indicated that they are prepared to respond to orders within 1-3 months, with proactive capacity planning already in place [58][59] Question: Expectations for cash cycle days and CapEx - Management aims to maintain stability in cash conversion cycle days while anticipating a slight increase in CapEx due to new projects [70][72]

Lumen Technologies forecast annual free cash flow exceeding Wall Street estimates on Tuesday, after posting a surprise adjusted profit in the fourth quarter, driven by strong demand for its connectivi... ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record EBITDA of $2.7 billion for Q4 2025, surpassing the previous record of $2.6 billion in Q4 2024 [5][20] - Net income attributable to common unit holders was $1.6 billion, or $0.75 per common unit on a fully diluted basis for Q4 2025 [12] - Adjusted cash flow from operations grew 5% to $2.4 billion in Q4 2025, contributing to a record $8.7 billion for the full year [12][14] - The distribution declared for Q4 2025 was $0.55 per common unit, a 2.8% increase from Q4 2024 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced weaker pay market margins in 2025, with RGP and PGP spreads dropping from $0.14 per pound in Q4 2024 to $0.03 per pound in Q4 2025 [7] - The company is fully contracted on its ethane export terminals and processing trains, with significant growth expected in 2026 and double-digit growth anticipated in 2027 [8][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil prices averaged about $12 per barrel lower than in 2024, impacting pricing and spreads [6] - The company loaded between 350 and 360 million barrels across 744 ships in 2025, with expectations to export near 1.5 million barrels a day of NGLs in the following year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for modest growth in 2026, with expectations of double-digit growth in 2027 as new assets ramp up [8][18] - The partnership with Exxon is seen as a significant opportunity, with plans to expand the Bahia pipeline to 1 million barrels per day [9][71] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the operating environment has changed, with lower commodity prices affecting margins [6] - The company expects discretionary free cash flow to be around $1 billion in 2026, with a focus on buybacks and debt retirement [19] Other Important Information - Total capital investments were $1.3 billion in Q4 2025, with $1 billion allocated for growth capital projects [14] - The company has returned $5 billion of capital to equity investors in 2025, with a payout ratio of 58% [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for 2026 and 2027 growth - Management indicated that growth in 2026 is expected to be at the lower end of the 3%-5% range, with modest cash flow and EBITDA growth anticipated [28] Question: NGL export cadence and earnings contribution - Management explained that the ramp-up of earnings from NGL exports will continue into 2026, with full utilization expected by the second quarter [31] Question: Impact of Waha prices on operations - Management clarified that the company benefits from both low and high Waha prices through gas transport capacity and storage assets [34] Question: Producer customers' plans for 2026 - Management reported that Midland volumes are outperforming expectations, with a record number of well connects [36] Question: Negotiating power of large EMPs - Management expressed confidence in their ability to negotiate favorable contracts regardless of the size of the EMPs involved [41] Question: Buyback strategy and pace - Management confirmed that 50%-60% of free cash flow is expected to be allocated towards buybacks, with a mix of opportunistic and programmatic purchases [50] Question: Demand trends in international markets - Management noted that demand for U.S. LPG remains resilient, with strong interest in export capacity [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record EBITDA of $2.7 billion for Q4 2025, surpassing the previous record of $2.6 billion in Q4 2024 [5][22] - Net income attributable to common unit holders was $1.6 billion, or $0.75 per common unit on a fully diluted basis for Q4 2025 [12] - Adjusted cash flow from operations grew 5% to $2.4 billion in Q4 2025, contributing to a record $8.7 billion for the full year [12][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced weaker pay market margins in 2025, with RGP and PGP spreads dropping from $0.14 per pound in Q4 2024 to $0.03 per pound in Q4 2025 [6][7] - The company is fully contracted on its ethane export terminals and processing trains, with expectations for modest growth in 2026 and double-digit growth in 2027 as new assets ramp up [8][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil prices averaged about $12 a barrel lower than in 2024, impacting price spreads and overall performance [6] - The company loaded between 350 and 360 million barrels across 744 ships in 2025, with expectations to export near 1.5 million barrels a day of NGLs by next year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for modest adjusted EBITDA and cash flow growth in 2026, with a target of 10% growth in 2027 as new assets come online [19][22] - The partnership with ExxonMobil is seen as a significant opportunity, with plans for expansion and collaboration on various projects [9][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current operating environment is shaped by new market realities, including lower commodity prices and weaker spreads [6][19] - The company expects discretionary free cash flow to be around $1 billion in 2026, with a focus on buybacks and debt retirement [20][21] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $50 million of its common units in Q4 2025, totaling about $300 million for the year [14] - Total capital investments were $1.3 billion in Q4 2025, with $1 billion allocated for growth capital projects [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for 2026 and 2027 growth - Management indicated that growth in 2026 is expected to be at the lower end of the 3%-5% range, with a more favorable outlook for 2027 [30] Question: NGL export cadence and earnings contribution - Management explained that the Neches River Terminal's ramp-up will continue into 2026, with full utilization expected by the second quarter [32] Question: Impact of Waha prices on operations - Management clarified that low Waha prices benefit gas transport capacity, while higher prices allow for monetization through storage assets [35] Question: Producer customers' plans for 2026 - Management reported that Midland volumes are outperforming expectations, with a record number of well connections [37] Question: Negotiating power of larger E&Ps - Management expressed confidence in their ability to negotiate favorable contracts regardless of E&P size [42] Question: Buyback strategy and methodology - Management confirmed that 50%-60% of discretionary free cash flow is expected to be allocated towards buybacks [52] Question: Demand trends in international markets - Management noted resilient demand for U.S. LPG in new markets, indicating healthy long-term interest in export capacity [57] Question: Opportunities for collaboration with Exxon - Management highlighted ongoing collaboration with Exxon across multiple projects, emphasizing the potential for future growth [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record EBITDA of $2.7 billion for Q4 2025, surpassing the previous record of $2.6 billion in Q4 2024 [4] - Net income attributable to common unit holders was $1.6 billion, or $0.75 per common unit on a fully diluted basis for Q4 2025 [11] - Adjusted cash flow from operations grew 5% to $2.4 billion in Q4 2025, leading to a record $8.7 billion for the full year [11][12] - The distribution declared for Q4 2025 was $0.55 per common unit, a 2.8% increase from Q4 2024 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced weaker pay market margins in 2025, with RGP and PGP spreads dropping from $0.14 per pound in Q4 2024 to $0.03 per pound in Q4 2025 [5] - The company has fully contracted its ethane export terminals and processing trains, with expectations for modest growth in 2026 and double-digit growth in 2027 as assets ramp up [6][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil prices averaged about $12 per barrel lower than in 2024, impacting pricing and spreads [4] - The company loaded between 350 and 360 million barrels across 744 ships in 2025, with expectations to export near 1.5 million barrels a day of NGLs by next year [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for modest adjusted EBITDA and cash flow growth in 2026, with a target of 10% growth in 2027 [17] - The partnership with ExxonMobil is seen as a significant opportunity, with plans to expand the Bahia pipeline to 1 million barrels per day [14][68] - The company is focusing on long-term agreements with producers and petrochemical customers to support growth in various segments [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current operating environment is shaped by new market realities, including lower crude oil prices and weaker commodity-sensitive business performance [4][5] - The management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges and highlighted strong customer relationships as a key driver of future success [11] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $50 million of its common units in Q4 2025, totaling about $300 million for the year [12] - Total capital investments were $1.3 billion in Q4 2025, with $1 billion allocated for growth capital projects [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through the 2026 growth outlook? - Management indicated that growth in 2026 is expected to be at the lower end of the 3%-5% range, with modest cash flow and EBITDA growth anticipated [26][28] Question: Can you expand on the NGL export cadence and earnings contribution? - Management explained that the ramp-up of earnings from the Matrix River expansion will continue into 2026, with full utilization expected by the second quarter [30] Question: How does EPD benefit from changes in Waha prices? - Management stated that the company benefits from both low and high Waha prices through gas transport capacity and storage assets [32] Question: What are producer customers saying about their plans for 2026? - Management reported that Midland volumes are outperforming expectations, with a record number of well connects and significant growth anticipated in the Delaware Basin [35] Question: Can you discuss the partnership with Exxon and future opportunities? - Management expressed optimism about the partnership with Exxon, highlighting multiple areas for collaboration and potential growth [68] Question: What is the outlook for the Haynesville Acadian expansion? - Management confirmed that the expansion is driven by a mix of private and public producers, enhancing the gathering system's capacity [82]

Core Viewpoint - UPS has provided a surprising full-year 2026 guidance of $6.5 billion in free cash flow (FCF), which appears to secure its $5.4 billion dividend payment, appealing to passive-income investors [2][12]. Group 1: Financial Guidance and Cost Savings - The $6.5 billion FCF guidance is significantly above Wall Street's analyst consensus, indicating strong financial health [2]. - UPS expects to generate $3 billion in cost savings in 2026, in addition to $3.5 billion in savings from 2025, primarily by reducing low-margin Amazon delivery volumes [3][4]. - Approximately one-third of the 2025 cost cuts were structural, which will contribute to cash flow improvements in 2026 and beyond [5]. Group 2: Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow - UPS reported $5.47 billion in adjusted FCF for 2025, but this includes $700 million from property disposals, which may not reflect the company's underlying cash flow [7][8]. - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures from $3.7 billion in 2025 to $3 billion in 2026, which is expected to enhance cash flow [9][11]. - The planned capital expenditures represent 3.3% of projected 2026 revenue of $89.7 billion, marking a significant change from historical metrics [9]. Group 3: Investor Implications - Management's commitment to the dividend is clear, making the stock attractive for income-seeking investors [12]. - However, growth-oriented investors may be concerned as reliance on property disposals for cash flow is not sustainable, and future revenue growth remains uncertain [13][14]. - The $6.5 billion FCF figure does not provide a strong foundation for long-term cash flow assumptions, raising questions about the company's growth potential [14][15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported net income of approximately $685 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $1,238 million, representing a growth of approximately 9% from 2024 [10] - In the fourth quarter, net income was $168 million compared to approximately $176 million in the third quarter, and Adjusted EBITDA was $309 million compared with approximately $321 million in the third quarter [10][11] - The gross Adjusted EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter was maintained at approximately 83%, above the target of 75% [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter gas processing volumes averaged 444 million cubic feet per day, crude terminaling volumes averaged 122,000 barrels of oil per day, and water gathering volumes averaged 124,000 barrels of water per day [5] - For the full year 2025, gas processing volumes averaged 445 million cubic feet per day, crude terminaling volumes averaged 129,000 barrels of oil per day, and water gathering volumes averaged 131,000 barrels of water per day [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects lower volumes across its systems in the first quarter of 2026 due to severe winter weather, with a recovery anticipated as weather improves [7][41] - Approximately 95% of revenues are protected by minimum volume commitments (MVCs) for the full year 2026, providing a safety net against volume fluctuations [8][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reduce capital spending significantly, expecting to spend approximately $150 million in 2026, a 40% reduction from 2025, and further decrease to less than $75 million per year in 2027 and 2028 [4][15] - The strategy includes a targeted 5% distribution growth per Class A share through 2028, supported by significant free cash flow generation [5][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that the severe winter weather has impacted operations but expects a recovery in production as conditions improve [41] - The company reiterated its guidance for net income and Adjusted EBITDA growth through 2028, driven by gas volume growth and lower capital expenditures [8][29] Other Important Information - The company had a drawn balance of $338 million on its revolving credit facility at year-end [12] - Adjusted free cash flow for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to increase relative to the fourth quarter of 2025 due to lower capital expenditures [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Balance sheet and debt repayment strategy - Management indicated that a portion of free cash flow will be used for debt repayment, with a conservative financial strategy in line with volume profiles [17][19] Question: Third-party outlook and Chevron's production target - Management expects no change in third-party volumes, maintaining an average of 10% across oil and gas, and confirmed Chevron's target of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day remains intact [21][23] Question: Growth drivers and cost-cutting impact - Future growth is driven by inflation escalators and reduced capital expenditures, with significant free cash flow generation expected [26][28] Question: Weather impact on production - Management noted that while severe weather has affected operations, a recovery is anticipated as conditions improve, with MVCs providing revenue protection [40][41] Question: Long-term leverage target - Management stated there is no specific leverage target, but expects natural deleveraging as EBITDA grows and debt levels remain stable [43][45]

Chevron Corp (CVX) announced a 4.0% dividend per share (DPS) hike to $7.12 annually on Jan. 30, slightly lower than my expectation of a 5% hike to $7.18. CVX stock has risen 20% since mid-December. It could be fully valued as it has reached my price target. This article will discuss how shareholders can play CVX. CVX closed at $176.90 on Friday, Jan. 30, up $5.71 (+3.34%), and up $24.39 or+16.1% year-to-date from $152.41 on Dec. 31, 2025. More News from Barchart CVX stock - last 3 months - Barchart Mor ...

Core Viewpoint - The Avantis U.S. Equity ETF (AVUS) is recommended for investors prioritizing diversification, as it provides exposure to nearly 2,000 U.S. equities [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The individual investor and writer Vasily Zyryanov employs various techniques to identify underpriced equities with strong upside potential and overappreciated companies with inflated valuations [1] - Zyryanov emphasizes the importance of analyzing Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital in addition to profit and sales analysis to gain deeper insights into investments [1] - While favoring underappreciated equities, Zyryanov acknowledges that some growth stocks may warrant their premium valuations, highlighting the need for thorough analysis to determine market correctness [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Zyryanov pays particular attention to the energy sector, including oil & gas supermajors, mid-cap, and small-cap exploration & production companies, as well as oilfield services firms [1] - His research also encompasses a variety of other industries, such as mining, chemicals, and luxury goods [1]

Group 1 - The GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY) is highlighted as a strong investment option with impressive returns, appealing to investors looking for alternatives to traditional U.S. large-cap strategies [1] - The individual investor and writer Vasily Zyryanov employs various techniques to identify underpriced equities with strong upside potential and overappreciated companies with inflated valuations [1] - Zyryanov emphasizes the importance of analyzing Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital in addition to profit and sales to gain deeper insights into investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The research covers a wide range of industries, including energy (oil & gas supermajors, mid-cap, and small-cap exploration & production companies, oilfield services), mining, chemicals, and luxury goods [1] - Zyryanov acknowledges that while he favors underappreciated equities, some growth stocks may warrant their premium valuations, necessitating deeper analysis to determine market correctness [1]