Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Philippine central bank has reduced its key policy rate by almost 2 percentage points to 475 basis points since last year [1] Lending Market - Home loan rates from the nation's top banks have barely changed despite the central bank's rate cuts [1]

But your first guest today says don't be deterred. He thinks the S&P 500 will power up next year all the way to 7750. Let's start off a big day with Julian Emanuel, senior managing director of equity, derivatives, quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI.Julian, welcome. One day not a trend make, but do you have a take on what's happening today. >> Well, this is a classic buy the rumor, sell the news.Right. So the market turned last Friday on anticipation of the government reopening and essentially if you look ...

whether an even greater rotation is coming. Now joining us for the hour Josh Brown, Carrie Firestone, Bill Baruch, Jenny Herrington. We'll check the markets where the big story is, the fact that we are down across the board.And if we throw up what the interest rate complex looks like, that could very well be a culprit today. No doubt about that. As we've got rates Get from the Fed in December.That's that seems to be the story today. No. Yeah.I think it's actually part of a bigger story. And I was talking to ...

Core Insights - The dollar index has fallen to a 2-week low, down by -0.29%, due to speculation that the reopening of the US government will lead to the release of delayed economic reports indicating a weakening US economy, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates [1] - The euro has risen to a 2-week high, up by +0.28%, supported by a weaker dollar and central bank divergence, with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to be done with its rate-cut cycle while the Fed is anticipated to cut rates multiple times by the end of 2026 [4] US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The dollar's losses are limited by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack advocating for steady interest rates due to persistent high inflation [2][3] - The market is pricing in a 53% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - Eurozone industrial production for September increased by +0.2% month-over-month, which was below expectations of +0.7% [4] Japanese Yen Dynamics - The yen has appreciated as it recovers from a 9.25-month low against the dollar, supported by a stronger-than-expected Japanese producer price report, which is seen as hawkish for Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy [5] - Japanese Finance Minister Katayama's comments regarding potential government intervention in the forex market to support the yen have also provided carryover support [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.81%, while expectations for monetary easing are increasing due to economic pressures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The interbank bond market yields have shown slight fluctuations, with the 3-month yield around 1.35%, the 2-year yield at 1.43%, and the 10-year yield at 1.81% [3]. - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing the central bank's commitment to maintaining relatively loose financing conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a growing expectation for "double cuts" (interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts) due to marginal increases in economic recovery pressures and liquidity constraints [5][6]. - The central bank's monetary policy report has shifted focus away from preventing capital idling, indicating a more optimistic stance on future liquidity conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, balancing short-term safety with long-term trading opportunities to manage potential market volatility [9]. - The bond market is expected to enter a "chaotic period" with limited space for both bullish and bearish movements, as the market awaits clearer signals for direction [8].

Supply and Construction Trends - Apartment construction starts are projected to decrease by 65% next year [1] - Industrial construction is also down 70% [3] - Data centers are now a larger asset class in construction than office buildings in the US for the first time [3] Rental Market and Debt Issues - Rents have gone negative in many markets, contrary to expectations [2] - Many properties with construction loans may not be able to pay off their debts at maturity [2] Population and Immigration - The US has experienced a reduction in population for the first time in 250 years, negatively impacting real estate [3] - Net exporting people is a problem for many real estate markets [4] - The country needs to encourage legal immigration, which has historically contributed significantly to GDP growth [4] Investment Opportunities - Rates are coming down, presenting opportunities to buy real estate in the US at deep discounts to replacement cost, especially in office buildings [4]

What's driving these gains. >> Well, there's a little bit of micro and a little bit of macro at the risk of sounding like a song. I mean, the macro is some of it's global and I do think the fact that actually we are nearing a resolution for the US shutdown has had a positive impact on markets across the globe.Plus, you've had things like the resolution on kind of Swiss tariffs this week, you know, in the last week, which has also added some tailwinds to the European markets. You've also got expectation of l ...

WSJ’s Nick Timiraos reported growing divisions within the Fed over a December rate cut. Some officials cite sticky inflation and tariff effects to argue for a pause, while doves point to weak jobs and slowing demand. A government shutdown disrupting key data has widened the split. The rate remains at 3.75%–4%, with markets still slightly favoring a cut amid a rare hawk-dove standoff. https://t.co/dHfdPJkWEc ...

Brazil’s central bank said it’s more assured that keeping the interest rate at a nearly two-decade high will slow inflation as the local economy cools https://t.co/ZOvLw1TsTa ...

Australia’s consumer confidence soared in November as households turned more positive on the economy, a result that’s likely to further reduce the chances of a near-term interest-rate cut https://t.co/3dgbyNGOEp ...