💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 FED CHAIR CANDIDATE WALLER: “AS OF TODAY, I EXPECT FURTHER RATE CUTS WITHIN THE NEXT THREE TO SIX MONTHS.” https://t.co/DYpVPFbAD5 ...

Historically, small cap stocks are often more sensitive to economic cycles and interest rate changes than their large cap counterparts. Why are rate cuts good for small cap stocks. Small cap stocks historically have outperformed large caps by 2 to 3% annually, but recently they've lagged behind in the current economic environment due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty.The Federal Reserve's high rate environment since 2022 has weighed heavily on small caps, which typically rely on borrowing to f ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent economic data and Federal Reserve meetings on interest rate expectations and commodity markets, particularly focusing on gold and silver prices, as well as the sentiment in the futures market regarding these precious metals [2][24][25]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.9% in July, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating the impact of tariffs on local inflation [2][23]. - The Federal Reserve's internal meeting records revealed that only two members advocated for interest rate cuts, while others prioritized controlling inflation over employment [2][23]. - Market sentiment suggests a strong expectation for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood of maintaining this stance into October depending on upcoming economic data [2][24]. Group 2: Futures Market Sentiment - As of August 19, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 8.1% to 441 tons, marking the lowest level in six weeks, while net long positions in COMEX silver increased by 1.9% to 4,477 tons [3][6]. - The article notes that the correlation between gold prices and silver is strong, with silver prices having increased by 29.4% year-to-date [6][9]. - The platinum market saw a slight decrease in net long positions, while palladium remains in a significant net short position, indicating ongoing challenges for these metals [7][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio fell to 14.094X, reflecting a 26.4% decline this year, suggesting that mining stocks have underperformed compared to gold itself [18][24]. - The article highlights the growing importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations in investment decisions, impacting the performance of mining stocks relative to commodities [18]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the gold-silver ratio as a sentiment indicator, with the current ratio at 86.848, down 1.1% week-over-week [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates while facing rising inflation presents a significant challenge for future monetary policy [25]. - The article suggests that if inflation remains high post-rate cuts, the Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions regarding interest rates in the coming months [25].

Small caps outperforming the market after Fed chair Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The Russell 2000 also besting the S&P over the past month and the entire third quarter, too. So, is this the breakout investors have been waiting for in small caps.Let's bring in Jill Carrie Hall from Bank of America. Jill, does this have legs here or is it just based on hopes of a rate cut sooner than later. Right.That's the the big question investors have been asking and we had been cautious on small caps for a while. Bu ...

The Bank of Portugal’s outgoing head, Mario Centeno, will attend the European Central Bank’s interest rate-setting meeting next month https://t.co/ajzFOHOimi ...

💥BREAKING:GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS 3 FED RATE CUTS IN 2025.HERE WE GO. 🚀 https://t.co/LXc90JIdoF ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US Treasury market**, **Canadian monetary policy**, and **European bond markets**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook**: Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole indicated a dovish stance, suggesting potential adjustments in policy based on economic data, particularly regarding labor market risks [2][4][10]. 2. **Market Reactions**: The market has shown a modest rally in response to the Fed's dovish signals, with current pricing reflecting about two rate cuts by year-end [4][10]. 3. **Foreign Demand for USTs**: There is a noted decline in foreign official demand for US Treasuries, with a net decrease of approximately $40 billion in holdings since late June, indicating a shift in buyer composition [4][5]. 4. **Canadian Monetary Policy**: The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to implement a 25 basis point cut in September, influenced by recent benign inflation data and labor market conditions [10][20]. 5. **European Bond Market Dynamics**: European yields have risen, driven by macroeconomic factors, with expectations that ECB policy will limit further easing [11][14]. 6. **Geopolitical Impact**: The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has ambiguous implications for European rates, with commodity prices not reflecting significant changes in energy supply [11][14]. 7. **Divergence in Nordic Economies**: The Riksbank and Norges Bank are taking different stances, with the Riksbank expected to cut rates while the Norges Bank maintains a steady policy due to stronger economic data [21][22]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Funding Risks**: The FOMC minutes acknowledged potential funding risks, particularly related to the Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuild, which could lead to increased volatility in money markets [9][10]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: There is a notable shift in investor positioning, with commercial banks increasing their UST holdings by approximately $60 billion since July, indicating strong domestic demand despite foreign pullback [4][5]. 3. **Curve Dynamics**: The UK rates are expected to steepen as the outlook improves, with inflation remaining a key concern for the Bank of England [21][22]. 4. **Foreign Inflows into European Debt**: Recent data shows a resurgence of foreign investment in European sovereign bonds, particularly in Southern Europe, indicating a shift from net divestment to strong sponsorship [14][17]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a complex interplay of monetary policy, market dynamics, and geopolitical factors affecting the US, Canadian, and European bond markets. The insights provided a comprehensive view of current trends and expectations, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decisions in shaping future monetary policy.

Odds of a September rate cut have fallen to 75% https://t.co/jzaHZSLQ0N ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 THE ODDS OF SEPTEMBER INTEREST RATE CUT DROP TO 75%. https://t.co/H1xN0KzZ0b ...

Labor Market Resilience - Europe's labor market demonstrates surprising resilience despite significant inflation and interest rate hikes [1] Monetary Policy Impact - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledges the labor market's strength in the face of aggressive interest-rate hikes [1]