Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has initiated the first rate cut of the year, with potential for more cuts before the end of 2025, prompting fixed income investors to adjust their portfolios for the changing interest rate environment [1] - A steeper yield curve is emerging as short-term rates decline, necessitating a re-strategization of portfolios to accommodate both short-term and long-term changes [2] Active ETFs Advantages - Active ETFs provide diversified exposure and flexibility in uncertain markets, allowing portfolio managers to adjust holdings based on market conditions, unlike passive funds that are tied to market value weight indexes [3][6] - The Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF (TPLS) offers core exposure with added flexibility compared to passive funds [7] - The Thornburg Multi Sector Bond ETF (TMB) provides income diversification and active management, making it suitable for a rate-cutting environment [8] Market Dynamics - Cash and shorter-dated securities face reinvestment risk as yields fall, while longer-dated bonds may experience volatility due to various economic factors [3] - Investors are encouraged to avoid closely tracking the Fed's movements and instead leverage active ETFs to navigate the new macro environment of lower rates [4] Portfolio Management - Portfolio managers can adjust ETF holdings to capture upside or mitigate downside risk, particularly in a yield-focused fund [5] - The complexity of bond markets necessitates active management to achieve market objectives and maximize income opportunities [5]

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Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.12% due to concerns over a potential government shutdown and comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicating risks of stagflation, alongside a significant drop in the Conference Board US consumer confidence index to a 5-month low of 94.2 [1][3] - The US July S&P composite-20 home price index showed a year-over-year increase of +1.82%, surpassing expectations of +1.55%, although this represents the slowest growth rate in two years [2] - The US September MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly declined by -0.9 to 40.6, falling short of expectations for an increase to 43.3 [3] Labor Market Insights - The August JOLTS job openings rose by +19,000 to 7.227 million, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated 7.200 million [3] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted risks to employment are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks are on the upside, reflecting concerns about the labor market's stability [4] Central Bank Policies - The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29, suggesting a shift in Fed policy [4] - The euro gained support from a weaker dollar and stronger-than-expected price pressures in Germany, with the German September CPI rising more than anticipated [5] - Central bank divergence is evident, as the ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year [6]

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - Silver reached a new 14-year peak as the U.S. dollar weakened amid rising risks of a government shutdown, with iShares Silver Trust (SLV) gaining about 15.7% over the past month, outperforming SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) which advanced about 9% [1] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Applications - Approximately half of silver's total demand comes from industrial applications, with a 4% increase in industrial demand reported in 2024, particularly driven by green energy initiatives [2] - Silver is crucial in solar power and electric vehicle applications, with China's solar cell exports increasing over 70% in the first half of the year, primarily due to strong shipments to India [3] - The automotive industry's increasing vehicle sophistication and gradual electrification of powertrains are expected to drive higher silver demand [3] - The global rollout of 5G technology is another positive factor for silver, as electronic components for 5G heavily rely on silver [4] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 2025 occurred in September, with an 89.3% chance of a further 25-basis point cut in October and 68.2% expecting another cut in December, influenced by a softer labor market [5] - Continued policy easing by the Fed could weaken the U.S. dollar, which typically boosts silver prices, as evidenced by the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) declining 7% this year [6] Group 4: Safe-Haven Demand - Silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset has increased amid moderate trade tensions and the potential for a U.S. government shutdown, with rising uncertainty boosting its demand [7][8] Group 5: ETFs and Investment Vehicles - In addition to iShares Silver Trust (SLV), other ETFs such as Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) are also performing well, hovering around 52-week highs [9]

Summary of Hong Kong Real Estate Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - The Hong Kong housing market is experiencing a recovery, with year-to-date price growth of +1.3% and an expected increase in primary transaction volume by 13% year-on-year to 19,000 units, marking a five-year high [2][10] - The effective mortgage rate has decreased to 3.375%, which is anticipated to support the housing market [2] - Economists project two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December 2025 and March 2026, which should further bolster market recovery [2] Core Insights - The sector recovery thesis is gaining consensus, with potential upward revisions in earnings driven by improved sales, a positive wealth effect, and lower borrowing costs [3][10] - Developers may face challenges with completed inventories but are expected to adjust sales strategies to balance volume and margin, leading to higher earnings in 2026-2027 [3] Investment Opportunities Opportunity 1: Laggard Plays with Good Dividend Yield - Companies with strong dividend yields (~7%) and improving fundamentals are highlighted, including: - Henderson Land (12 HK, Buy, Target Price HKD34.20) [4] - CK Hutchison (1 HK, Buy, Target Price HKD60.00) [4] - Henderson Land is positioned to benefit from the housing market recovery, while CK Hutchison shows improving earnings and dividend prospects [4] Opportunity 2: Capital Recycling - Companies engaging in capital recycling are expected to unlock value: - Hysan (14 HK, Buy, Target Price HKD18.60) is noted for its rapid capital recycling through the sale of Bamboo Grove [5] - Hongkong Land (HKL SP, Buy, Target Price USD8.11) is focusing on capital recycling under a new strategy [5] Opportunity 3: Stocks with New Growth Drivers - Swire Properties (1972 HK, Buy, Target Price HKD23.90) is set to open several commercial projects from 2026, enhancing rental income [6] - Hang Lung Properties (101 HK, Buy, Target Price HKD9.20) is expected to generate new rental income from the completion of Westlake 66 in Hangzhou [6] Valuation and Risks - Henderson Land maintains a Buy rating with a target price of HKD34.20, reflecting a 25.3% upside from the current price [25] - CK Hutchison's target price is set at HKD60.00, indicating a 19.3% upside, with risks including currency weakness and potential dividend cuts [25] - Hysan's target price is HKD18.60, with a 16.7% upside, but faces risks from lower-than-expected retail rentals and potential dividend cuts [26] - Hongkong Land's target price is USD8.11, with a 26.3% upside, but risks include a deteriorating luxury retail business [26] - Hang Lung Properties has a target price of HKD9.20, with a 6.9% upside, facing risks from slower recovery in shopping malls [26] - Swire Properties maintains a target price of HKD23.90, with an 8.9% upside, but risks include slower-than-expected rental growth [27] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the housing market's recovery trajectory and the potential for earnings revisions across the real estate sector [10] - The analysis includes a detailed valuation summary for various companies, highlighting market caps, average daily trading volumes, and projected earnings growth [11][24] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the Hong Kong real estate market, investment opportunities, and associated risks.

Group 1 - Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) has reached a record high after breaking out of a base, indicating strong performance in the gold stock sector [1] - TFPM, along with Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Kinross Gold (KGC), is leading the IBD Sector Leaders list, showcasing the strength of these gold stocks [1] - The fundamentals and robust chart of TFPM have contributed to its inclusion in the IBD 50, highlighting its investment potential [1] Group 2 - A gold streaming company reported a profit growth of 118%, indicating significant financial performance in the gold sector [2] - The gold stock is currently in the buy zone, suggesting favorable conditions for potential investors [2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with various gold stocks showing strong gains and attracting investor interest [4]

🇺🇸 US GDP (Q2 QoQ)📊 Actual: 3.8% vs Expected: 3.3%🔑 Fed Policy Impact:Solid data → rate cut expectations delayed💪Strong GDP, capex & jobs = higher for longer🏠 Housing weak, but not enough for easing📉 Short term: Fed likely on hold⏩ Mid term: cuts delayed if jobs & spending stay firm⚠️ Only clear slowdown in labor/consumption = faster cuts ...

Joining me now is the Wall Street Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timmeros. It's great to have you back. Nice to see you.>> Thanks for having me, Scott. >> Seems like Mr. . Griffin is aligned with many on on the Fed right now.Maybe you'll get one. But there seems to be caution expressed by many of the Fed speakers we've heard this week, including today Austin Goulby said, quote, "I'm just a little uneasy with too much frontloading until we're sure that inflation is is coming down." >> Yeah, th ...