Market Trends - ETH reached a new all-time high [1] - A massive altseason is expected to start following ETH's new ATH [1] Investment Strategy - Investors who held coins through the bear market, tariff war, and shakeouts are now being rewarded [1] - Investors should avoid selling altcoins early [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Rate cuts and Quantitative Easing (QE) are anticipated [1]

He joins us from Seattle. He's got this to say Recent labor market data increase the scope for a Fed cut. As soon as September.We expect that the Fed will look through elevated inflation in the coming months and favor the growth side of its mandate. Rob joins us now for more. Rob, good morning.Good to see you. Less on housing and less on the politics of the moment. Much more on this Fed Reserve going into September.What do you expect to hear this coming Friday. I think Chair Powell is in a tough spot going ...

Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers is expected to demonstrate strength in the homebuilder sector with its upcoming third-quarter financial results, showing potential growth in revenue and earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict Toll Brothers will report third-quarter revenue of $2.85 billion, an increase from $2.73 billion in the same quarter last year [1]. - Expected earnings per share for the third quarter are $3.60, consistent with the earnings per share reported in the third quarter of the previous year [2]. Recent Performance - The company has consistently outperformed analyst estimates, beating expectations in nine of the last ten quarters overall [2]. - In the second quarter, Toll Brothers exceeded analyst estimates for earnings per share [2]. Market Context - The housing sector remains a focal point for investors, with new home sales declining recently [3]. - Anticipation of rate cuts later this year and pent-up demand for home purchases is expected to influence the market positively in the second half of the year or into 2026 [3]. Influential Investors - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made new investments in the homebuilder sector, which may positively impact the entire industry, even though Buffett did not directly invest in Toll Brothers [4][5]. - Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Lennar Corporation Class B shares by 19%, indicating confidence in the homebuilder sector [4]. Key Metrics to Watch - Investors and analysts will focus on key metrics such as home sales revenue, delivered homes, net signed contract value, and contracted homes in Toll Brothers' upcoming report [5]. Backlog Information - Toll Brothers reported a backlog value of $6.84 billion at the end of the second quarter, with 6,063 homes in backlog, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 7% in value and 15% in the number of homes [6]. Stock Performance - Toll Brothers stock has increased by 0.8% to $131.59, with a year-to-date increase of 4.6% in 2025, and has a 52-week trading range of $86.67 to $169.52 [6].

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - Jackson Hole symposium is crucial this year, potentially influencing market trades next week [1] - The market has priced in aggressive rate cuts despite high inflation, strong retail sales, and low unemployment [3] - Premature rate cuts could stir up inflation, orthodox central banking suggests waiting for a clear economic slowdown [4][5] - Powell's Jackson Hole address could either validate rate cut expectations, leading to curve steepening, or push back, further pressuring long-end yields [6][7] - The market currently prices in an 85% chance of a September Fed rate cut [8] - The Fed might not mind current rate cut pricing, acknowledging the possibility of needing aggressive cuts if the economy significantly slows [8] AI Sector Vulnerability - The AI sector, particularly Magnificent Seven stocks, is acutely vulnerable to a hawkish outcome from Jackson Hole due to their long duration nature [11] - Increased CapEx in the AI sector has created higher duration assets, making them more susceptible to higher interest rates [13] - Potential tariffs on chips and concerns about revenue sharing models pose risks to AI companies' profit margins [14] - While Nvidia's upcoming earnings are expected to be positive, the AI boom might be backward-looking, making the sector vulnerable in the coming month [15]

Market Trends - Gold experienced a weekly decline [1] - US President Trump's tariff agenda may create inflationary pressures in the US [1] Monetary Policy - Inflationary pressures could threaten rate cuts [1]

Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% in July, marking the second consecutive monthly gain after declines in April and May, with auto sales rising by 1.6% [2][3] - Excluding auto and gas sales, spending was up only 0.2%, indicating cautious consumer behavior, as some categories like electronics and restaurants saw declines [3][4] - The report suggests that while consumers are still spending, they are doing so more cautiously, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [4][5] Tariffs and Semiconductor Industry - President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports, potentially as high as 200% to 300%, aiming to encourage domestic manufacturing [6][7][8] - This strategy could lead to significant expenses and uncertainties for businesses, potentially disrupting global supply chains [8][9] - Investors may face challenges due to steep tariffs unless substantial exemptions are provided [9] Ethereum and Cryptocurrency Market - Ethereum (ETH) saw a 25% increase between July 17 and the following Tuesday, with a notable 275% gain reported by options traders [10][19] - Ethereum's unique properties, such as its built-in scarcity and utility in decentralized applications, make it increasingly competitive with traditional financial instruments [11][14][15] - The current market conditions show a spike in implied volatility, which has shifted from being a tailwind to a headwind for buyers, prompting a strategic exit for some traders [24][25]

Interest Rate Outlook - The market initially anticipated three Federal Reserve rate cuts at the beginning of the year, but expectations have been adjusted downwards to potentially just one cut [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 4% probability of a 50 basis point cut [2] - Inflation data, including CPI and PPI, suggests persistent inflationary pressures, potentially hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to implement rate cuts [4] - The Federal Reserve's data-driven approach implies that unfavorable data could further delay anticipated rate cuts [6] Market Sentiment and Risk - The market exhibits signs of frothiness, evidenced by bullish IPOs, record highs in Bitcoin, and upside movements in Ether [7][8] - Market broadening could be a positive sign, as returns have been concentrated in a small segment of the market, making it fragile [9] - Market momentum and sentiment are vulnerable to sudden shifts, and a catalyst could trigger a downturn [10] - Confidence in data, policy, and the functioning of markets is crucial for sustaining market sentiment [12][13] Geopolitical Considerations - While the Russian economy may not directly impact the US economy, a meeting between the US President and the Russian President could influence market sentiment [10][11]

Market Performance - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 Index, have underperformed compared to larger peers, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) up about 3.7% this year, while the S&P 500 gained approximately 10%, Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) increased by 13%, and the Dow Jones rose by 5% [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, slightly below the Dow Jones forecast of 2.8% annual growth [4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% in July and 3.1% annually, aligning with monthly expectations but slightly exceeding the yearly forecast of 3% [5] Interest Rates and Small-Cap Stocks - Small-cap companies are more reliant on debt than larger firms, meaning that lower interest rates can significantly reduce their borrowing costs and stimulate domestic growth, which is crucial for their revenue [6] - The probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut on September 17 is now at 81%, following the positive inflation data [5] Valuation and Investment Potential - The S&P 500 is trading at five times book value, while the Russell 2000 is at only two times book value, indicating that small-cap stocks are currently undervalued [8] - There is potential for a rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to small caps, as high valuations in tech may lead to a rally in small-cap stocks [7] Business Optimism - The Small Business Optimism Index rose by 1.7 points in July to 100.3, slightly above the long-term average of 98, driven by improved business conditions and optimism about expansion [9] - Despite the positive outlook, there is notable uncertainty, as indicated by an 8-point increase in the uncertainty index, now at 97 [9] Earnings Growth Projections - For the S&P 600 index, Q2 earnings increased by 6.6% year-over-year, with 76% of companies beating EPS estimates and 73.4% exceeding revenue estimates [10] - Q3 earnings for S&P 600 companies are projected to grow by 23.2% on a 3.7% increase in revenues, with overall earnings growth expected to be 10.8% in 2025, 17.5% in 2026, and 11.2% in 2027 [11]

BREAKINGCPI is 2.7% less than expected 2.8% chances for rate cuts are near 100%This is bullish for $BTC crypto and stock market PUMP IT UP ...

Market Expectations & Potential Impacts - The market anticipates a US CPI data release at 8:30 am ET [1] - The expected CPI is 2.8% [1] - A CPI of 2.8% or less is perceived to indicate a near 100% chance of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Lower CPI (less than 2.8%) is expected to lead to increased market liquidity and a market pump [1] - A CPI of 2.9% or higher is anticipated to cause a sharp short-term market dump [1] Risk Management - High volatility is expected in Bitcoin ($BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market [1] - The report advises caution against using high leverage [1]