RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)"This isn’t about [retail] inflation anymore. Investors are fleeing counterparty risk itself." ...

AI Impact on Economy - Fed Governor Christopher Waller 认为 AI 有望推动持续的生产力增长，从而提高生活水平，且不会引发通货膨胀 [1]

European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said there are currently no grounds to change interest rates, warning that some inflation components need continued vigilance https://t.co/n9FuKZGmBe ...

A key US inflation report, the consumer price index, won't be released until next week. But here's what private-sector data tells us about inflation in September https://t.co/SB6EB4WGjc ...

ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf dismisses concerns about inflation dropping below the 2% target, saying he’s actually more worried that it will come in above that threshold https://t.co/n5pskmRZeS ...

Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said the US central bank should continue lowering interest rates this year to support the labor market, while keeping them high enough to make sure inflation remains in check https://t.co/mHJK4OTk0D ...

Federal Reserve Policy - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, reaching its lowest level since September 17th [1] - Fed Chair Powell suggested, but did not explicitly state, that rate cuts are likely to continue [3] - The Fed judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance at its September meeting [4] - Powell indicated the Fed might soon halt the reduction of its balance sheet (QT) due to signs of tightening liquidity conditions [6] - Powell's comments did not decisively endorse future rate cuts, but he also did not push back against market expectations for two cuts this year [8] Economic Outlook - Rising downside risks to employment have shifted the Fed's assessment of the balance of risks [4] - Data suggests higher downside risks for employment and inflation, primarily due to tariffs rather than a broader inflation issue [5] - Prior to the shutdown, data indicated the economy was on a firmer growth path [5] - The Fed is monitoring liquidity conditions, including repo rates [6] Market Observations - The market reacted positively to Powell's comments regarding the potential halt of balance sheet reduction [6] - The market firmly expects two rate cuts this year [8]

Monetary Policy - Fed Chair Jerome Powell declined to comment on Bitcoin or Gold [1] - The Fed believes inflation is driven by fundamental supply and demand factors [1]

Market Outlook - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon raised concerns about a weakening labor market [1] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon raised concerns about sticky inflation [1] Financial Performance - JPMorgan reported provisions for credit losses that were slightly higher than expected [1]

Gold Market Analysis - Gold is seen as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially with the acceleration of de-dollarization driven by sanctions and concerns about US fiscal policy [2] - Mainstream investors are starting to participate in the gold market, with major Wall Street banks recommending gold exposure in portfolios [2] - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold, competing with private investors and driving prices higher [4] - The dollar is expected to lose value, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates into rising inflation, further driving demand for gold [4] - China's central bank is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [4] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the flawed nature of CPI and seek assets that retain value [4][5] - Gold investors have outperformed US stock market investors, especially when pricing stocks in gold [3][4] Bitcoin vs Gold - Bitcoin is considered a risk asset correlated with the NASDAQ, while gold is seen as a safe haven store of value [8] - There is a risk of money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs back into gold ETFs and gold stocks [1][8] - Bitcoin treasury companies may face downside risk and potential liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings [9] US Economic Policy - The Trump administration receives a failing grade (F) on economic policy due to massive government spending and deficits [13] - Tariffs are viewed as taxes that make American industry less competitive [14][15] - The speaker advocates for balanced budgets, debt restructuring, and deregulation to address fundamental economic problems [21][22][25]