Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 experienced a recovery from an earlier dip, currently down about 033% [1] - The Nasdaq is also recovering, trading near the flatline, led by Micron, Microsoft, and Nvidia [1] - The consensus expects inflation to remain around 3% for the next 18 months [3][4] - A rebound in the economy is expected next year, with a bill potentially adding almost a full percentage point to GDP growth due to accelerated depreciation [17] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The debate around the Federal Reserve's actions is causing anxiety, particularly in the tech sector [2] - The majority of FMC members are communicating that they are not done fighting inflation, making interest rate cuts in December unlikely [2][3][4] - Upside pressure on inflation is expected due to the dollar's decline and potential pass-through from tariffs [5] - The speaker anticipates the Fed to hold in December due to concerns about upside risks to inflation, which is already at 3% [18] Labor Market Analysis - The true health of the labor market is complex to assess due to data challenges and the timing of the employment report [5][6][7] - Companies predict 2026 will be the worst college grad job market in 5 years [9] - Unemployment rate data for college graduates aged 22-27 shows a divergence, with the rate decreasing for women and increasing for men [9] - The narrative that AI is causing widespread job losses is questioned, as jobless claims are not increasing [10] International Trade & AI Impact - China has been able to adjust its exports, doubling sales to other Asian countries to offset declines to the US [11][12] - The AI story's burden is now on seeing more earnings growth, particularly in the S&P 493, to benefit from AI [15][16] - Service sector companies' input costs have been rising significantly, potentially leading to upside pressure on service inflation next year [20]

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...

After putting in an all-time high near $4,400 an ounce in mid-occtober, gold experienced a sharp sell-off, losing 11% of its value in just 7 days, including the largest 1-day drop in over a decade. But was this a fundamental narrative change or just a reflection of extended market positioning. Many analysts believe it's the latter, citing the parabolic 30% rally that began in late August.This up move corresponded with several high-profile banks and individuals advocating for gold to be a bigger part of an i ...

Economic Policy & Inflation - The administration inherited a terrible inflation crisis, but there are signs things are getting better, such as the price of eggs, energy, and gasoline decreasing [2] - Lower energy prices will eventually filter out into the entire economy, but this process takes time [3] - The focus is on getting people good jobs, higher wages, and bringing down the cost of goods [4] - A major problem with the previous economy was that people had jobs where they couldn't build a career, making only $145 per hour without the prospect of earning more [6] Housing & Immigration - Housing is too expensive because the country was flooded with 30 million illegal immigrants who were taking houses that ought to go to American citizens [4] Political Strategy & Criticism - It is not effective to simply blame the previous administration for current problems, especially as time passes [10][11] - The administration's credibility is questioned, particularly regarding silence on controversial issues [14] - The administration does not seem to have a clear plan other than blaming the previous administration [14]

The Swiss franc climbed to a 10-year high against the euro as expectations of stickier inflation and the prospect of lower US tariffs bolstered demand for the haven currency https://t.co/olJsKhfy1U ...

So, how do you think the tariffs on the imported pasta are going to change things for your customers here. >> Well, obviously will come with an increase on pricing. Uh, especially for people like us that we don't like to compromise on the quality of the products.>> Are you concerned at all for your business. >> Of course. Of course.You know, time for restaurants is very difficult these days with all the cost increases from energy to rent to labor. Especially here in New York there is a lot of prediction for ...

Monetary Policy - Fed Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack suggests the US central bank should maintain stable interest rates to continue lowering inflation [1]

Monetary Policy - St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggests caution with further interest rate reductions [1] - Inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target [1]

Boston Fed President Collins speaking yesterday at a community banking conference, taking a cautious tone around the path forward for rate cuts. A view that is echoed by our next guest. Joining us here at Post 9 this morning is former Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern.Gary, it's great to have you back. Good morning. >> So Collins, Daly, Bostic, sort of this school that maybe it's good to slow down.>> Uh yes, and I would agree with that. I don't think first of all I don't think there's a compelling ration ...

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) shows early signs of stabilization entering fiscal 2026, with its future dependent on sustaining comparable sales momentum and managing ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly in coffee costs [1][10] Financial Performance - The company concluded fiscal 2025 with its first positive global comparable sales growth in seven quarters, attributed to improved U.S. traffic trends and strong international performance, including growth in China [2] - Starbucks anticipates continued comparable sales growth throughout fiscal 2026, although management acknowledges that recovery may not be linear [4] Operational Strategy - A significant factor in Starbucks' performance will be the implementation of the Green Apron Service, which focuses on staffing, speed, and customer connection, showing early positive results in U.S. stores [3] - The company is enhancing service execution, particularly during morning hours, and plans to introduce new menu items to support transaction growth and premium offerings [4] Cost Management - Persistent coffee inflation and tariffs are expected to pressure margins, with elevated coffee prices likely affecting profitability through at least the first half of fiscal 2026 [5] - Starbucks is restructuring general and administrative costs and improving unit economics by closing underperforming stores, although earnings may lag behind revenue growth due to labor investments [5] Competitive Landscape - Competition from McDonald's (MCD) and Dutch Bros (BROS) is significant as Starbucks seeks to strengthen its comparable sales and manage coffee cost inflation [7] - McDonald's McCafé platform is gaining popularity among value-seeking consumers, while Dutch Bros is rapidly expanding in the specialty beverage market, posing challenges to Starbucks [8] Valuation Metrics - Starbucks shares have increased by 0.9% over the past six months, contrasting with a 9.7% decline in the industry [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.54, which is below the industry average of 3.39 [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Starbucks' fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings per share (EPS) suggests year-over-year gains of 16.9% and 23.6%, respectively, although EPS estimates have declined in the past 30 days [15]