Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the economy, tariff impact on inflation and her market outlook. ...

Well, always you don't want to pay too much attention to one number, but part of the big issue here is what the tariffs are going to do to prices and uh and we just don't know how long the lags are going to be. So, think about the situation for a firm that's that's importing goods. Uh they may have a lot of inventories that in fact were not subject to the tariffs and in fact it's only the stuff that's going to come to them uh uh in the future that that's the problem.So, they're not going to necessarily rais ...

former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner. Steve, there has indeed been plenty of speculation about how Trump's tariffs will impact the country. So tell us, how does the economy look almost 5 months into Trump's second term.Yeah, it's interesting, Jonathan. I think uh all of us predicted that inflation would start to go up as a result of those tariffs, but yesterday there was a report that in fact it has really not yet gone up, or at least not yet gone up. So the commerce depart ...

The Phillips curve is an economic theory that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. https://t.co/RH9tMCzG49 ...

Core Insights - Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) stock has experienced a decline of 11% since November 2024, despite reporting an operating margin exceeding 42% in 2024 [1] - The company trades at a premium valuation of 32 times earnings, resulting in a low earnings yield of 3%, compared to Meta's lower multiple of 23 times and higher revenue growth [1] - Historical performance shows vulnerability during economic downturns, with significant stock price drops during the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and inflationary pressures in 2022 [1] Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Martin Marietta reported revenues of $1.35 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, with projected FY26 revenues between $6.83 billion and $7.23 billion, indicating a growth of 5 to 10% [4] - The company has seen a notable increase in debt levels, rising from $3.95 billion at the end of 2024 to $5.41 billion as of March 31, 2025, with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.06, exceeding the industry median [3] Market Position and Demand - Martin Marietta benefits from stable demand driven by infrastructure expenditures, particularly from government initiatives like the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which allocates $1.2 trillion for infrastructure projects over five years [2][6] - The company is one of the largest providers of construction aggregates in the U.S., which provides it with pricing power and economies of scale [2] Pricing and Revenue Growth - In Q1 2025, the average selling price of aggregates increased by 6.8% to $23.77 per ton, supported by organic price improvements and margin-accretive acquisitions, suggesting continued pricing momentum [7] Risks and Challenges - Weather-related risks pose a threat to operations, with historical disruptions from hurricanes and storms impacting production and revenue [5]

Group 1 - Booking Holdings has been one of the top performers in the market despite the focus on hot topics like AI, tariffs, inflation, and budget deficits [1] - The company is positioned to attract long-term investors by emphasizing qualitative attributes and fundamental pricing [2] Group 2 - The article aims to provide insights on companies with strong growth potential while managing downside risks [2] - There is a strategy to maintain a concentrated portfolio that avoids underperformers and maximizes exposure to high-performing stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - SoFi Technologies has faced significant challenges but is now positioned for growth as headwinds dissipate, potentially rewarding investors in the coming years [1][2][16] Group 1: Company Performance - SoFi Technologies' stock has fluctuated between $6 and $18 over the past year, with a nearly 50% decline from its all-time high [2] - The company went public via a reverse SPAC merger in mid-2021 and experienced a decline of over 83% at its lowest point [2] - Despite challenges, SoFi has grown its member base from 3.4 million in 2021 to over 10.9 million [7] Group 2: Market Context - SoFi went public during a stock market bubble fueled by zero-percent interest rates, which were later raised sharply by the Federal Reserve, impacting consumer borrowing [5][6] - The pandemic led to a temporary freeze on student loan repayments, affecting SoFi's core business [5] Group 3: Business Recovery - SoFi's student loan originations peaked at $2.4 billion in Q4 2019 but fell to $1.2 billion in Q1 2025 [8][9] - Management anticipates over $3.2 billion in net revenue for the current year, indicating significant growth despite previous setbacks [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. government's push to resume student loan repayments could lead to increased refinancing activity for SoFi [10] - SoFi's member base grew by 34% year over year in Q1 2025, with members using an average of only 1.45 products, indicating cross-selling opportunities [11] - The company's tangible book value (TBV) has increased by 14.6% over the past four quarters, compared to JPMorgan's 8.4% [14] - Management projects a 12% increase in TBV this year, with potential stock price reaching near $19 if growth is sustained [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported one of its best quarters ever with near record margins and record growth, achieving an 86 combined ratio in Q1 2025 [4][8] - Investment income for the quarter was 32% greater than the first quarter of the previous year, averaging over $270 million per month year to date [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal auto new applications in Q1 2025 surpassed the previous record by over 20%, driven by more quotes and higher conversion rates [6][7] - In property, the company increased homeowners policies enforced in less volatile states while reducing them in more volatile states, and significantly grew its renters business [7] - Core commercial auto new applications were up 8% year over year, with significant growth in business auto and contractor BMTs [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The shopping environment in personal auto remains favorable, with a record number of new applications in Q1 2025 [6] - The company’s balance sheet remained strong, with common equities only 4% of the total portfolio, largely insulated from stock market volatility [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the number one destination for insurance and financial needs for consumers, agents, and business owners [6] - The management is focused on maintaining growth while managing rates state by state and product by product, with a strategy of small incremental changes [16][17] - The company is actively modeling various scenarios to assess the impact of potential tariffs on its business [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company’s ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges, including tariffs, and emphasized the importance of being prepared to react quickly [5][11] - The management believes that the company has the tools and people to manage through market disruptions effectively [11] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a shift in policy life expectancy due to increased shopping behavior in the market, which is affecting retention rates [30][36] - The management highlighted the importance of customer service and competitive pricing in maintaining growth and retention [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Auto rates and profitability - Management indicated that they are monitoring rates closely and making adjustments state by state to maintain growth while managing profitability [16] Question: Advertising spending and channels - Management noted that digital advertising has seen significant growth, but they evaluate all channels for efficiency and effectiveness [20] Question: New business penalty in personal auto - Management acknowledged the existence of a new business penalty but emphasized that they are pricing based on lifetime costs [28] Question: Policy life expectancy and shopping environment - Management explained that the decline in policy life expectancy is influenced by a competitive shopping environment, but they are focused on improving customer service [30][36] Question: Impact of tariffs on loss costs - Management discussed the complexity of tariffs and their potential inflationary impact on loss costs, emphasizing their proactive modeling efforts [51][57] Question: Competitive environment and pricing - Management acknowledged increased competition but expressed confidence in their ability to maintain growth through effective advertising and expense management [101][102] Question: Retention rates and customer behavior - Management indicated that while retention rates may decline due to increased shopping, they are focused on maintaining competitive pricing and customer service [68][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported one of its best quarters ever with near record margins and record growth, following a strong performance in 2024 [3][4] - The investment portfolio generated investment income that was 32% greater than the first quarter of the previous year, averaging over $270 million per month year to date [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal auto new applications surpassed the previous record by over 20%, driven by more quotes and higher conversion rates [5] - In property, the company increased homeowners policies enforced in less volatile states while reducing policies in more volatile states, and significantly grew the renters business [5] - Core commercial auto new applications increased by 8% year over year, with significant growth in business auto and contractor BMTs [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The shopping environment in personal auto remains favorable, with the first quarter of 2025 setting a record for new personal auto applications [4][5] - The company’s personal auto and property products, as well as commercial lines, have year-to-date combined ratios below 90, a significant achievement given industry challenges [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the number one destination for insurance and financial needs for consumers, agents, and business owners [4] - The management is focused on maintaining growth while managing the impact of tariffs and other macroeconomic factors [4][8] - The company is actively modeling various scenarios to assess the impact of potential tariffs on its business [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges, citing a strong balance sheet and effective customer acquisition strategies [6][7] - The management believes that the company is well-prepared to manage through future uncertainties better than competitors [9] Other Important Information - The company has been generating capital at a brisk pace from strong underwriting profitability and investment returns [7] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining stable rates while also being prepared to react to market changes [14][72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Auto rates and profitability - Management indicated that they are monitoring rates closely on a state-by-state basis and are focused on maintaining growth while managing margins [12][14] Question: Advertising spending - The company has ramped up advertising spending, particularly in digital channels, and is focused on efficiency in customer acquisition [15][17] Question: New business penalty in personal auto - Management acknowledged the existence of a new business penalty but emphasized that they are pricing based on lifetime costs [23][26] Question: Policy life expectancy - The decline in policy life expectancy is attributed to increased shopping behavior in the industry, but management remains optimistic about growth [27][33] Question: Auto loss costs and severity - Management discussed the impact of customer mix on frequency and severity, noting that preferred customers may have higher coverage [36][41] Question: Impact of tariffs - Management provided insights into the complexity of tariffs and their potential impact on loss costs, emphasizing the need for nimbleness in response [48][56] Question: Homeowners market dynamics - Management discussed the ongoing non-renewal of policies in Florida and the cautious approach to entering the California market [59][60] Question: Competitive environment and retention - Management acknowledged the competitive landscape and the importance of maintaining customer retention while managing growth [97][100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First Commonwealth reported core earnings per share of $0.32 for Q1 2025, with a return on assets of 1.14%, down from 1.23% in Q4 2024 due to rising expenses and falling fee income [6][10] - Loans grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, totaling $99 million, with commercial loans accounting for $63 million or 64% of the increase [6][7] - Net interest margin (NIM) increased by eight basis points to 3.62%, while deposit costs fell to 1.99% [7][8] - The efficiency ratio rose to 59.08%, up from 56.07% in the previous quarter, with total expenses increasing by $2.1 million to $71.1 million [10][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Equipment finance and indirect auto lending contributed significantly to loan growth, with strong application volume continuing into April [6][7] - Fee income decreased by $1.5 million in Q1 2025, attributed to a $3.5 million hit from the Durbin Amendment and a decline in SBA gain on sale income [10][20] - The company anticipates fee income to improve in Q2 2025, projecting $23 million to $24 million, with a seasonal decline expected in Q4 [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that consumer financial health remains stable, comprising about 68% to 70% of U.S. GDP and 40% of its lending business [9] - The impact of tariffs and inflation on clients has been monitored, with many businesses adapting their supply chains effectively [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving liquidity, with a loan-to-deposit ratio decreasing from 97% to 92% over the past two years [8] - The acquisition of Centre Bank is expected to enhance efficiency and margin, with the integration of new talent seen as a strategic fit for growth [11][128] - The company aims to increase fee income as a percentage of overall revenue, leveraging its regional model and local relationships [137] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about loan growth despite potential headwinds from tariffs, with strong pipelines in various markets [14][9] - The company is cautious about the economic environment, particularly regarding inflation and its potential impact on consumers and businesses [10][12] - Future NIM guidance anticipates expansion due to macro swaps and potential Fed rate cuts, with expectations of reaching the high 370s by year-end [18][42] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors approved a dividend increase of $0.01 per share, maintaining a dividend yield of approximately 3.54% [12] - The company has $6.7 million remaining under its buyback program, with no buyback activity in Q1 2025 due to the timing of the Centre Bank acquisition [22][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth guidance and equipment finance portfolio momentum - Management noted healthy application volume in equipment finance and attributed growth to increased demand amid tariff anticipation [26][27] Question: Borrower sentiment and commercial real estate activity - Management indicated improved activity in commercial real estate and a strong pipeline, with a focus on growing the commercial and industrial book [28][29] Question: Deposit growth and rates - Management acknowledged that deposit growth was driven by savings, with a strategy to maintain liquidity despite lower rates [34][35] Question: NIM guidance and deposit costs - Management clarified that NIM guidance assumes stable deposit costs, with potential for upside if deposit rates can be lowered further [41][42] Question: SBA gain on sale outlook - Management expects SBA gain on sale income to improve as the year progresses, with a healthy pipeline of deals [75][78] Question: Center Bank acquisition impact - Management expressed excitement about the talent acquired from Centre Bank and its potential to enhance growth in the Cincinnati market [128][129]