June 27, 2025 06:17 PM GMT US Credit Strategy: 1Q25 Fundamentals Modest Deterioration, but Interest Coverage a Bright Spot M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H North America Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Vishwas Patkar Strategist Vishwas.Patkar@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.8041 Joyce Jiang Strategist Joyce.Jiang@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.0165 Karen Chen Strategist Karen.Chen@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.1199 Christina Sigler Strategist Christina.Sigler@morganstanley.com +1 212.761.4116 Source: Bloomberg, ...

Let's begin with a market. Let's and what a strong quarter it's been on Wall Street. The Dow is up 4%.The S&P 500 soaring to 10%. The Nasdaq is higher by 17% tracking for its best quarterly gain in 5 years. So technology, communication services, industrials, discretionary are among the top performing sectors on the S&P 500 quarter to date.And joining us now with key things to watch in the second half is Richard Bernstein, advisor CEO. uh Richard Bernstein and City US equity strategist Scott Croner. I mean, ...

Market Trends - India's stock market is cooling due to concerns over slowing earnings growth and high valuations [1] - In April, India's stock market was a haven during global market turmoil [1]

Wall Street sees S&P 500 earnings growing at the slowest pace in two years. Can stocks keep powering higher in the face of that? https://t.co/e19qd8xT05 ...

Market Outlook - The market's first half performance suggests timing the market is difficult [3] - Markets have moved higher due to reduced Middle East tensions, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and a slowing but non-recessionary economy [3][4] - The market is approaching highs for 2025, supported by the expectation of a couple of rate cuts in the second half of the year [4] Earnings and Valuations - S&P 500 is trading at a premium, but strong earnings growth could drive the market higher [5][6] - First quarter earnings exceeded expectations, with actual earnings growth of approximately 12% compared to the expected 6% [6] Tariffs and GDP - A 10% tariff rate for the rest of the world (excluding China) could reduce GDP by about 1.5%, potentially skirting a recession [7] Global Diversification and US Market - Investors should remain globally diversified, with a neutral to weaker dollar benefiting non-US equities [9] - The US market is bullish, driven by artificial intelligence, with almost two-thirds of earnings growth driven by technology stocks [9] - Mega-cap tech stocks drive over 30% of the S&P 500's market cap, making the US a strong place to generate returns [9] Fixed Income and Bond Market - The bond market has calmed down, with the 10-year yield around 4.25% [10] - Factors like concerns about US Treasury safety and the impact of the "big beautiful bill" on the deficit could negatively affect the bond market [11] - Municipal bonds are attractive due to high yields and strong fundamentals driven by the strength of the US economy [12]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are seeking growth stocks that can deliver above-average growth and exceptional returns, but identifying such stocks can be challenging due to inherent risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Growth Stock Identification - The Zacks Growth Style Score system aids in identifying promising growth stocks by analyzing real growth prospects beyond traditional metrics [2] - APi (APG) is currently highlighted as a recommended growth stock, possessing a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is a critical factor for growth investors, with double-digit growth being particularly attractive as it signals strong future prospects [4] - APi has a historical EPS growth rate of 14.4%, with projected EPS growth of 13.4% this year, surpassing the industry average of 12.5% [5] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - Higher-than-average cash flow growth is essential for growth-oriented companies, enabling them to expand without relying on external funding [6] - APi's year-over-year cash flow growth stands at 120.9%, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.7% [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 76.5%, compared to the industry average of 7.1% [7] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions correlate strongly with near-term stock price movements, making them a valuable metric for investors [8] - The current-year earnings estimates for APi have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 2% over the past month [9] Group 5: Overall Assessment - APi has achieved a Growth Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2, indicating its potential as an outperformer and a solid choice for growth investors [11]

It's a tale of two markets. If you look at it from a year-to-date standpoint, you miss the whole movie. The year-to- date obviously has been lackluster, but that's not the story that should be told.It's where we are from the April bottom. The S&P is up 27% from the April bottom. The Nasdaq is up 36% since April.Last I checked, we're not even in July yet. That's the story. I think if you look at the movie short actually that like that that time period it actually should would make you a little bit more cauti ...

Core Insights - Earnings growth is crucial for organizational survival and profitability, influencing share prices significantly [1][2] - Companies like Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM), AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR), and VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) are showcasing strong earnings growth [1][8] Earnings Estimates & Share Price Movements - Stock prices may decline despite earnings growth if they fail to meet market expectations, often followed by price rallies after earnings declines [2] - Earnings estimates are influenced by sales growth, product demand, competitive environment, profit margins, and cost control, serving as a valuable tool for investment decisions [3] Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on stocks with a history of earnings growth and rising quarterly and annual earnings estimates [4] - Screening measures include Zacks Rank, historical EPS growth, and recent estimate revisions to identify stocks with strong earnings growth potential [5][6][7] Company Highlights - **Agnico Eagle Mines**: Expected earnings growth rate of 43% for the current year, Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [7][8] - **AptarGroup**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4.1% for the current year, Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [9][8] - **VICI Properties**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4% for the current year, Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [10][8]

Industry Trends & Growth Drivers - Electric, gas, and water utilities are experiencing significant capital expenditure (CapEx) growth, projected to increase over 50% from $150 billion annually to nearly $250 billion by 2026 [2] - Data centers are fueling load growth for utilities, contributing to a national average growth of 2-3%, with some areas experiencing high single-digit or slightly higher growth [8] Impact of Weather & Regulation - Heat waves are generally beneficial for utilities, allowing them to demonstrate the value of infrastructure upgrades and grid reliability [2][3] - The impact of heat waves on profits varies by state due to decoupling mechanisms, where some utilities like Exelon (EXC) in Illinois do not directly benefit financially from increased demand during hot weather [3] - Utilities may experience slightly higher operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses during extreme weather due to increased maintenance needs [5][6] Investment & Valuation - The utilities sector is currently trading at an 18% discount compared to the S&P 500, despite having comparable earnings growth of around 7% and offering a better dividend yield [10] - Potential rate cuts could further enhance the attractiveness of the utilities sector [11] - Despite having growth drivers, the utilities sector is still viewed as a defensive sector, similar to a bond proxy [13][14]

Core Insights - First American Financial Corporation (FAF) shares are trading at a discount compared to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry, with a forward price-to-book value of 1.18X, lower than the industry average of 1.56X, the Finance sector's 4.15X, and the S&P 500 Composite's 8.12X [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $5.93 billion and an average trading volume of 0.9 million shares over the last three months [2] - FAF's stock has gained 8.6% over the past year, underperforming the industry's growth of 19.1%, the Finance sector's return of 18.9%, and the S&P 500 composite's appreciation of 10.1% [3] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FAF's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 14.8%, with revenues projected at $7.00 billion, reflecting a 14.2% year-over-year improvement [5] - For 2026, the consensus estimates suggest an increase of 20.9% in earnings per share and 12.6% in revenues compared to 2025 [9] Business Outlook - FAF anticipates modest improvements in both residential purchase and refinance businesses for 2025, driven by direct premiums, escrow fees, and title agent premiums [8] - The company expects increased demand for first-time home purchases among millennials, supported by a favorable economic environment and labor market [15][16] - The title insurer is focused on enhancing its product offerings, improving core business operations, and expanding valuation and data services [17] Financial Performance - FAF has surpassed earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 21.08% [10] - The average target price for FAF shares is $77, suggesting a potential upside of 31% from the last closing price [11] Shareholder Returns - First American distributes wealth to shareholders through dividend hikes and share buybacks, with a dividend yield and payout ratio better than the industry average [18] - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth due to its leadership in title data, strong distribution relationships, and continued investments in technology [16]