Market Outlook & IPOs - The IPO market is performing well and considered healthy, avoiding the dynamics seen in 2021 [1][2] - A good IPO market anticipates Federal Reserve easing [2] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The market might be disappointed by the lack of clear signals from the Fed regarding future rate cuts [4] - The speaker anticipates one more rate cut before year-end, but not as much as 75 basis points, due to factors like tariffs [5] - The Fed is expected to be data-driven and cautious in its approach [8] - The Fed chair is unlikely to signal a major easing cycle to continue fighting inflation [7] Economic Indicators - A 900,000 job readjustment signaled the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates [4] - Core goods deflation has reversed into modest inflation [6] - The current curve doesn't resemble that of last fall, which is reassuring [9] - Flattening of the yield curve (2s and 10s) is seen as beneficial [9] - The focus should shift to economic growth and avoiding a recession [11]

joining us as we said, Charles Schwab, chief investment strategist, Lisanne Saunders. Lisanne, good to see you. Important week.Good to good to see you. Thank you. Yeah, a very important week.Your thoughts about going into tomorrow and what the market's done say over the last 10 sessions. Yeah. So, I I think the Fed does cut by 25, but perhaps in in light of stronger consumption numbers, it wouldn't be surprising to see what is often deemed a uh you know, a hawkish cut uh given the commentary we could hear f ...

I sat down with @HenrikZeberg to discuss his macro outlook, K-shaped economy, inflation, a potential big tech bust coming, why the 4-year bitcoin cycle is not going anywhere, and what a monetary reset would look like.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/egfLMpVGqOSpotify: https://t.co/AGVcmpFvn0Apple: https://t.co/RFfUQao3ZbTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro1:20 - Where are we in the macro cycle?9:47 - Are we getting a blow off top in risk assets?12:20 - Historical stock market valuations vs today25:42 - What happens in the ne ...

"It's really all about inflation"A growing number of economists believe the Bank of England has finished cutting ratesBloomberg's Kit Rees explains why https://t.co/hWSXKCYVbb https://t.co/OeHazAgDjD ...

Core Viewpoint - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) offers a 3.7% dividend yield, which, while lower than some competitors, presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its focus on quality and growth rather than just yield [2][6]. Group 1: Yield Comparison - The S&P 500 index currently yields around 1.2%, making SCHD's yield nearly three times larger [3]. - Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF offers a higher yield of approximately 4.5%, which may attract yield-focused investors [3][6]. - A 4% yield is often considered a key threshold for retirement income, as it allows for sustainable withdrawals without depleting principal [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF employs a nuanced investment strategy, focusing on stocks that have increased dividends for at least a decade, rather than simply selecting high-yield stocks [8][9]. - The ETF evaluates stocks based on a composite score that includes cash flow to total debt, return on equity, dividend yield, and five-year dividend growth [9]. - The ETF's approach has resulted in a generally rising dividend and share price, contrasting with the more yield-focused strategy of Invesco, which may lead to less attractive dividend growth [11]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Dividend growth is crucial for maintaining purchasing power against inflation, and over time, SCHD may provide more income than higher-yielding ETFs that lack growth [12][13]. - Including SCHD in a portfolio alongside higher-yielding options can offer protection against inflation while providing a solid long-term investment strategy [13].

Tomorrow, a Federal Reserve committee will meet to talk over a possible interest rate cut. But the big question is, will Lisa Cook join her fellow Fed governors for that meeting. For now, Cook remains on the board after a federal judge blocked President Trump's dismissal.And tonight, the Senate is expected to confirm Trump's latest appointment to the Fed board, Steven Myron. If the vote goes as expected, Myron will join the board in time for this week's meeting. He will not be replacing Cook though, in case ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed faces a stagflation-type scenario with high inflation due to supply shocks (tariffs) that may weaken the economy [2] - The Fed is considering a presumptive 25 basis point rate cut amidst concerns about inflation expectations [2] - The central bank should normally look through temporary supply shocks to inflation, but the Fed is worried about inflation expectations [3][4] - If inflation expectations rise and become anchored, it could lead to incrementally higher inflation over time [6] - Compromised central bank independence could lead to expectations of easier monetary policy, causing inflation and higher interest rates [7][8] - The Fed's concern about inflation expectations may make them reluctant to ease as fast as they normally would [5][10] Central Bank Independence - Attacks on the Fed, such as the Lisa Cook situation, and potential political influence are concerning [4][9] - The appointment of someone still working in the White House to the Fed is unprecedented [4] - Examples like Turkey and Argentina show that compromised central bank independence can lead to high interest rates and distrust in statistics [9][10]

European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher said officials stand ready to react to changes in the economic data even if inflation risks for the region are “quite balanced” at the moment https://t.co/gGPY2UUoQ1 ...

Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The debate centers on whether the Fed will signal one or two more rate cuts after September [2] - The market is pricing in rate cuts that could bring the federal funds rate down to approximately 3% by the end of next year [7] Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Softening labor market indicators, with payroll employment growth at only 30,000 per month in the last three months, are a key concern driving potential rate cuts [5] - The market generally agrees with the view that downside risks to the labor market outweigh upside risks to inflation, justifying rate cuts [11] - There's a possibility that steeper rate cuts could lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a deterioration in the dollar's value [10] Fed Policy & Internal Dynamics - Most members of the committee are expected to align with the Chairman's direction on rates, with disagreements primarily focused on timing [15][16] - The influence of a newly appointed member from the administration is expected to be limited during the upcoming meeting [19][21] - The degree of disagreement among members tends to be small, as everyone is evaluating the same economic information [22]

The ECB must remain on alert to tackle upside dangers to inflation, according to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir https://t.co/qpoeyPWRaX ...