Market Trends & Sentiment - Gold's 49% rally over the past 12 months signals potential market trouble ahead, contrasting with bullish equity sentiment [1] - The gold rally reflects increasing fear of stagflation or even recession in the medium term [2] - Gold's performance may reflect deeper concerns that run counter to equity market optimism [2] Economic Factors - Market expects lower interest rates in the future, boosting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] - Stubborn inflation keeps investors wary as elevated inflation erodes bond yields and purchasing power [1] - Declining deficit to GDP ratio is driven in part by tariff revenue and stronger GDP [1] - A sluggish labor market persists [1]

Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with a booming industrial renaissance contrasted by headwinds facing consumers [2] - Recent China news poses a slight headwind to the consumer outlook due to potential upward pressure on prices [5] - Strong growth is observed in red book same store retail sales, restaurant visits, and hotel demand, suggesting the economy is still performing well [10] - A key question for the Fed is whether the slowdown in the labor market is due to slower supply (less immigration) or lower demand [8][9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The biggest underappreciated risk is that the fight against inflation is not over [15] - There's a risk that the Fed cutting rates due to slowing immigration could lead to more inflation, especially with tariffs and a weaker dollar [11] - The consensus view is that inflation over the next 12 months will be 3%, significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target [14] - Retailers are discussing the impact of tariffs on their costs and pricing strategies [13] Gold Market - Gold prices are rising due to inflation risks, Chinese household buying, and central banks divesting from US treasuries [18][19] - Chinese households are diversifying into gold due to limited investment options [21] - Central banks are price insensitive buyers of gold due to sanctions [20]

People are buying the dip even when there seems to be profit taking. The problem is the FOMO trade is real. If you see that growth is strong and that things look positive, it's important to stay in the market and follow these moves because there doesn't seem to be any sort of indication or any sort of fundamental data that goes against it.My bigger concern is much more of an overstimulation narrative where the economy pumps up too much and then you start to see inflation uh pop up as well. So upside risk in ...

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I mean, I remember when I was, you know, 6 years old, my very first investment was a gold panda bear, you know, a Chinese gold ounce. And it took me 44 years to get my money back adjusted for inflation. That happened this summer.>> So, people should remember that about >> Yeah. 45 years. I was right.Gold was the first Bitcoin when it became legal to own. I was there as a small child seeing my dad get just Oh my god. He had a big block of silver that he bought, you know, 40 an ounce and then, you know, there ...

The Trump administration is recalling some furloughed workers to publish a key inflation report, showing just how critical the data is for a variety of government services. https://t.co/FgbggW765A ...

A rally in gold prices is lifting the wealth of Turkish households by billions of dollars, complicating the central bank’s efforts to rein in prices https://t.co/vuyiCRnowy ...

Government Shutdown Impact on Data & Fed Policy - The government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process due to the lack of hard data, including government jobs data and inflation data [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to rely on existing labor market data with alternative datasets or pause and wait for the release of delayed data [3] - Data delays have ripple effects, potentially impacting the quality of CPI data for October, November, and December [4] - The shutdown leads to murkier data, with a higher percentage of CPI goods being estimated by staff [4] Economic Impact - The shutdown is estimated to drag quarterly GDP by approximately 10 basis points per week [6] - Federal workers are losing approximately $400 million per day in compensation, impacting consumer spending [6] Market Reaction - Markets are likely to react negatively if the Fed pauses due to the government shutdown, as rate cuts have already been priced in [9] - Alternative data sets do not fully compensate for the lack of government data, particularly in gauging the magnitude of economic changes [10][11] - The range of estimates for the September payroll report varies widely, from as high as 60,000 to as low as negative 30,000 [11] Investment Strategy - The government shutdown has not caused dramatic shifts in investment strategies, as underlying earnings remain strong [14] - Q3 earnings growth estimates have ticked up from 8% to 88%, indicating underlying strength in the markets [16]

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - The discussion covers the gold bull run, silver, and Bitcoin [1] - Inflation and currency debasement are key topics of concern [1] - Capital allocation strategies for investors are explored [1] Economic Factors - The labor market is analyzed [1] - Trump's economic policies are discussed [1]

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve advocates a cautious approach to further interest-rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the potential for tariffs to cause persistent inflation [1]