Economic Indicators - December pending home sales are expected to decline by -0.5% month-over-month [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are projected to increase by +12,000 to 210,000 [1] - Q3 GDP is anticipated to remain unchanged at +4.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized [1] - November personal spending is expected to rise by +0.5% month-over-month, while personal income is projected to increase by +0.4% month-over-month [1] - The November core PCE price index is expected to rise by +0.2% month-over-month and +2.8% year-over-year [1] - January S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to increase by +0.2 to 52.0 [1] - The final University of Michigan January US consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unchanged at 54.0 [1] Stock Market Movements - US natural gas-producing stocks surged over +25% to a three-week high, with companies like Coterra Energy up more than +3% [2][15] - Gold and silver mining stocks are climbing as prices reach all-time highs, with Newmont Mining up more than +3% and Barrick Mining up more than +2% [2][14] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and Nasdaq 100 indexes fell to two-week lows, with declines of -1.23%, -1.07%, and -1.36% respectively [4] - The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are experiencing declines, with Nvidia and Tesla down more than -2% [12] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are also down, with Bitcoin falling more than -2% [13] Earnings Reports - 88% of the 33 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have beaten expectations, with S&P earnings growth expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4 [5] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6% [5] - 3M Co. is down more than -7% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS below consensus [16] - Fastenal reported Q4 net sales of $2.03 billion, below the consensus of $2.04 billion, leading to a decline of more than -4% [16] Bond Market - The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4.75-month high of 4.31%, influenced by rising bond yields and concerns about an independent Fed [3][8] - Rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbing to a 3.25-month high of 2.342% [8] - European government bond yields are also increasing, with the 10-year German bund yield rising to a two-week high of 2.894% [10]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) has shown strong performance with a 13% increase in shares over the past year, and recent earnings exceeded analyst expectations, indicating positive momentum in the banking sector [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Bank of America Corporation's shares increased by 13% over the past year [2]. - TD Cowen raised the share price target for BAC to $66 from $64, maintaining a Buy rating, anticipating strong performance in the banking sector during the upcoming earnings season [2]. - HSBC upgraded BAC's rating from Hold to Buy and set a price target of $50, suggesting that a pullback in shares could present a buying opportunity [2]. Group 2: Earnings Report - In its fourth quarter earnings report, Bank of America posted $28.53 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $0.98, both surpassing analyst estimates of $27.94 billion and $0.96 respectively [2]. - Following the earnings report, BAC's stock closed 3.8% higher, reflecting positive market reaction [2]. Group 3: Interest Rate Commentary - Jim Cramer noted that Bank of America would benefit from higher interest rates, suggesting a potential conflict with the President's stance on rates [3].

Economic Strength and Consumer Behavior - Recent economic data indicates growing strength on Main Street, with Americans' take-home pay increasing by 1.42% after inflation from January to December 2025, contributing to rising retail sales and home purchases [1] - Retail spending rose by 3.3% year-over-year in November and increased by 0.6% from the previous month, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.4% rise [2] Housing Market Dynamics - Lower interest rates have led to a 5.1% increase in existing home sales in December, as reported by the National Association of Realtors [3] - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.19% in December, down from 6.24% in November and 6.72% a year ago, indicating improved housing market conditions [6] - Inventory levels in the housing market remain tight, with fewer sellers eager to move, but more inventory is expected to come to market starting in February [6] Inflation Trends - Inflation remained elevated at the end of 2025, with the consumer price index (CPI) showing a 0.3% monthly increase in December and a 2.7% rise year-over-year [9] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% in December and is up 2.6% from the previous year [9] Employment and Federal Reserve Actions - The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, contributing to a decline in the unemployment rate [10] - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in its last three meetings, indirectly contributing to lower mortgage rates [12] - Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% in the upcoming meeting [13]

Core Insights - Inflation has cooled, but costs for materials, labor, and financing remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, leading to a slowdown in renovations. Homeowners may face higher costs if they delay improvements [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Construction Costs - Input prices for construction rose by 0.2% in June and are 2.1% higher than a year ago, indicating that while inflation has eased, construction costs are not decreasing [2]. - Nonresidential input price escalation has accelerated, with contractors remaining optimistic despite high interest rates and rising input prices. Prices are stable but not decreasing, suggesting that homeowners waiting for discounts may be waiting indefinitely [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates - Mortgage rates are significantly above pandemic lows, with 30-year fixed loans averaging 2.96% in 2021. Although borrowing costs have begun to ease, they remain elevated [4]. - Home-equity line of credit (HELOC) rates have decreased from approximately 9.8% in October 2024 to around 8.13% today, providing homeowners with more options for financing repairs or upgrades [5]. Group 3: Material Costs - Homeowners are delaying renovations in hopes of further drops in material prices, but this may be unrealistic [6]. - Lumber futures are trading around $540 per thousand board feet, with prices stabilizing at midrange levels rather than returning to pre-pandemic prices. Analysts expect material costs to remain stable but not at the lower prices homeowners might anticipate [7].

Core Insights - The housing market is experiencing confusion with high mortgage rates despite cooling interest rates, leading experts to suggest preparing down payments for future opportunities [1] - Mortgage rate forecasts for 2026 predict a gradual decline, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging between 6% and 6.5%, while home prices are expected to rise slowly between 1% and 2% [2] - The unpredictability of the Trump administration's economic policies could introduce volatility in the housing market, affecting mortgage rate forecasts [3][4] Mortgage Rates Outlook - Experts anticipate a slight dip in mortgage rates from 2025 highs, providing minor savings for potential homebuyers [2] - The Trump administration's influence on the Federal Reserve could lead to a more aggressive rate-cutting approach, potentially lowering mortgage rates [4] Economic Policies Impact - Tariffs on imported goods may increase inflation and homebuilding costs, keeping mortgage rates elevated due to the Fed's focus on price stability [5] - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could increase the U.S. government's debt burden, leading to higher yields on government debt and upward pressure on long-term interest rates and mortgage rates [6]

Core Insights - More homebuyers are opting for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans to maintain affordability, with a notable difference in average rates between ARMs and 30-year fixed-rate loans [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The average rate for a 5/1 ARM is 5.51%, while the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan is 6.33%, resulting in approximately $210 monthly savings on a $400,000 loan [1] - The current interest rate environment suggests that ARMs may be beneficial, especially when rates are comparatively high [4] Group 2: ARM Structure and Benefits - ARMs start with a fixed interest rate followed by periodic adjustments; for instance, a 5/1 ARM has a fixed rate for the first five years before annual adjustments begin [2] - ARMs can save money if used strategically, particularly if the borrower plans to sell the home before the loan adjusts or can refinance before the adjustment [5][6] Group 3: Risk Management Tips - Understanding how points are applied is crucial, as the rate reduction typically only applies during the fixed-rate period of an ARM [7] - Borrowers should look for ARMs with a conversion option to switch to a fixed rate after a certain period, which may involve a fee but can save money in the long run [7] - It is advisable to accept only fully amortizing loans to ensure that both principal and interest are paid off by the final scheduled payment, avoiding balloon payments [7]

In 2016, this Japanese company issued a public apology. For the first time in 25 years, they were hiking the price of a popular ice cream by 10 yen, or about $0.06%. And they were deeply sorry.Now, in any other country, this might have been an overreaction, but in Japan. Inflation is just completely alien as a concept. For three decades, the country saw stagnant or even decreasing prices, which is why a 10 yen price-hike for an ice cream was such a big deal.But a huge slide in the yen is helping change that ...

Core Viewpoint - Housing affordability is a significant concern for the American public and is influencing market dynamics, particularly in the mortgage sector [1] Group 1: Housing Market - The current focus on housing affordability is affecting both consumers and investors [1] - Recent statements from President Trump and his administration have impacted market sentiment and stock performance in the housing sector [1] Group 2: Mortgage Companies - UWM Holdings and Rocket Companies are highlighted as the largest mortgage companies in America, indicating a competitive landscape [1] - The rivalry between UWM Holdings and Rocket Companies is intensifying, influenced by market conditions and political statements [1]

Core Viewpoint - Singapore REITs have faced significant challenges due to rising interest rates, which have increased financing costs and pressured distributions to unitholders [1][3][8] Group 1: Impact of Rising Interest Rates - Higher interest rates have led to increased financing costs, resulting in more cash being allocated to interest payments rather than unitholder distributions [1][3] - Deal activity in the REIT sector has slowed as higher funding costs made transactions less economically viable [1][3] - Many REITs experienced a decline in distributions per unit (DPU), with unit prices following suit [1][3] Group 2: Specific REIT Performance - Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLCT) saw its DPU for FY2025 fall to S$0.0595, a 12.5% year-on-year decline, despite improved portfolio occupancy of 95.1% [4][5] - Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported a DPU of S$0.01815 for 2Q FY25/26, a 10.5% decrease year-on-year, although it managed to maintain a 96.1% occupancy rate [6][7] Group 3: Outlook with Falling Interest Rates - As interest rates begin to fall, Singapore REITs could benefit significantly from improved financing conditions, potentially leading to a recovery in distributions [2][12] - Commercial REITs like CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT) are expected to see cash flow improvements as borrowing costs decrease [9][10] - CICT managed to grow its DPU by 3.5% year-on-year to S$0.0562 in the first half of 2025, supported by strong occupancy [10] Group 4: Investor Considerations - Investors should focus on the financial health of REITs, including the duration of debts and the proportion of fixed-rate debt, as these factors will influence the benefits from refinancing [14][15] - The quality of a REIT's holdings and occupancy rates remain crucial for maintaining consistent cash flow [15][16] - A shift in the macro environment with falling interest rates could renew interest in REITs, particularly those with strong financial backing and solid property portfolios [16][17]

Hello everyone. Today we've got a very special treat. We've got Ryan Dietrich from the Carson Group.He's going to join us and talk about what's going on in public markets, his outlook for 2026, the Fed, interest rates, inflation, deflation, and much, much more. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. Before we get into today's conversation, please remember to subscribe on YouTube.My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers and with your help, we're going to get there. Hit the subscribe button and ...